Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

That ensemble mean. Wow. TX would be shut all week. I am surprised I didn’t see more at Home Depot. Probably a lot not taking it seriously yet or just getting the memo today.

The 18z GEFS Ensemble Mean?

Yep.

Mean 1:10 Snowfall

DFW: 12-16 inches
Central Oklahoma: 10-12 inches

[Texas Snowman]

Is there anyone here that went thru the 1983 Texas cold snap in Dallas? Curious how the infrastructure held up back then? Did parts of the city lose running water and how bad the power outages might have been?

I went through the 1983 freeze in Denison. We got a big snowfall at the beginning of the event, then reinforcing fronts several times, and it ended up being 295 consecutive hours at or below freezing in Sherman and Denison. Never dipped below zero, but it rarely got above the low 20s either. A few mornings in single digits, a few afternoons in the teens.

Lake Texoma's huge Big Mineral Arm (north of Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge) ended up freezing from one side to the other and most of the coves across the lake were several inches thick. Only the main lake out near the islands stayed completely ice free. One of my great friends who is older and had an air boat, he would slide across the ice at Texoma to his duck hunting spots. Smaller lakes were so fronzen that you could walk across them.

Water mains broke in numerous places across Denison and I remember seeing city crews digging and trying to get them fixed, so yes, there was a loss of water from time to town depending on where the broken mains were. There was some power redistribution, which forced some non-essential businesses to shut down so hospitals and homes could have heat, but I don't remember any outages. Same thing happened in the Feb. 1989 freeze and the Dec. 1989 freeze. We had tons of potholes develop around town, the vegetation took a beating, etc.

The fish kill along the coast is one of the things I remember most (I'm an outdoor writer by trade) and the redfish and speckled trout stocks were nearly wiped out along most of the Texas coast.

[BigD938]

89’ I was 9 but remember going to my grand parents house for their 50th wedding Anniversary (grandma had cancer and passed the next week) from Plano to krum (up by Denton) and there were massive snow drifts and at least a foot on the ground there. Always though I was young and kinda made it up in my head. My Dad recently found pictures from it. It looks like it may have been way more than I remember.
On the way home my Dad and his brother pull some dude out of a snow drift that complete covered the truck. Never seen anything like it since then.

[Ntxw]

US under cold siege. Our storm is bringing record snow for some areas around Seattle and Portland in the Pacific Northwest. High wind warnings and watches over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Heavy snow for the Southern Rockies. Bitter cold for the Northern Plains.

And of course history in the making for the Southern Plains.

[rwfromkansas]

Keller ISD hasn’t really said anything to staff.

But, they did say days off for weather are pure days off. I doubt that will last all week though.

[Iceresistance]

Snowing outside STILL, 15°F

And OKC has just reported 1 inch of snow on the ground . . .

[Haris]

18z euro :cold

6” in Austin !

[txtwister78]

18z Euro shifting further south and east with heavier precip. Definitely a trend with models so far as the upper low deepens over the gulf

[txtwister78]

Amazing to see the Euro ENS with 2 inch line now south of San Antonio

[Ntxw]

Amazing to see the Euro ENS with 2 inch line now south of San Antonio

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613412000-CXthIn7rrcA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613455200-P3xvN3TvdE0.png

The models are likely latching on to the real depth of cold air and strength of the system. Just a couple of days ago the trend was for storm 1 to be weaker and now it is trending stronger.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It's now my opinion that this will be more of a snow event than ice, even to the coast. I'm not saying that the onset won't be frz rain or sleet, but I think the changeover happens pretty quickly.

Forecasted temps are still too warm. I'm shaving 7-10 off the modeled temps. Yes, they are performing that badly.

[Brent]

Amazing to see the Euro ENS with 2 inch line now south of San Antonio

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613412000-CXthIn7rrcA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613455200-P3xvN3TvdE0.png

What is with the dry slot over DFW

[txtwister78]

Amazing to see the Euro ENS with 2 inch line now south of San Antonio

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613412000-CXthIn7rrcA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613455200-P3xvN3TvdE0.png

The models are likely latching on to the real depth of cold air and strength of the system. Just a couple of days ago the trend was for storm 1 to be weaker and now it is trending stronger.

Agreed. We saw that with the system on Thursday across Central Texas. Global models did not show much (temps too warm) but also had minimal precip. These systems are really digging into Mexico (better moisture to work with) as they eject out into the state

[Ntxw]

We're now within range of the WPC probabilities which (from the last storm it seems) is heavily weighted by the NWS folks.

Note >2" odds for the next 3 days.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Amazing to see the Euro ENS with 2 inch line now south of San Antonio

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613412000-CXthIn7rrcA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613455200-P3xvN3TvdE0.png

You see, this is why I like the Euro. If I remember correctly I don’t think San Antonio got this much snow in 2017. I hope my job cancels it’s deliveries from tomorrow night to Tuesday morning. I don’t want to be sliding around in a delivery van full of groceries.

[txtwister78]

Amazing to see the Euro ENS with 2 inch line now south of San Antonio

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613412000-CXthIn7rrcA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613455200-P3xvN3TvdE0.png

You see, this is why I like the Euro. If I remember correctly I don’t think San Antonio got this much snow in 2017. I hope my job cancels it’s deliveries from tomorrow night to Tuesday morning. I don’t want to be sliding around in a delivery van full of groceries.

The far NS of the city did much better for that event (3 inches). Airport received 2 (which is the official measuring/reporting station)

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Feels super weird to be digging out last year’s hurricane supplies for a winter storm.

(Was a passenger in a car during an ice storm once. Would not recommend.)

[ColdFusion]

Amazing to see the Euro ENS with 2 inch line now south of San Antonio

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613412000-CXthIn7rrcA.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613455200-P3xvN3TvdE0.png

You see, this is why I like the Euro. If I remember correctly I don’t think San Antonio got this much snow in 2017. I hope my job cancels it’s deliveries from tomorrow night to Tuesday morning. I don’t want to be sliding around in a delivery van full of groceries.

...dude i kinda need my groceries.

[katheria]

You folks way up there in the U.S. wanted winter weather. This event may be close to the big freezes of 1983 and 1989 - maybe not quite the duration of sub-freezing temps. Absolute low temp may be colder than the 7F recorded back then in Houston. Our water will be shut off near sunrise Monday and will likely be off all week. Faucets open. Running water will freeze, so letting them drip won't help much. Don't even think about driving anywhere next week. I see a multi-billion dollar catastrophe in the making.

Here is a model plot starting 6AM CST Sunday:

http://wxman57.com/images/Models12ZFeb12.JPG

We are shutting off water tomorrow evening to the house we are up in dallas area
I was around in 83... It was not a pretty sight..
1000s of pipes burst including 2 in the house i grew up in

A few days of inconvenience is better than a 10k plus insurance claim
Water in buckets for flushing johns
Bottled water for cooking drinking



.a friend in sachse had a pipe burst today that was in a outside wall..she does live in a older house thou..

[drred4]

It just made today to 31 here so below freezing all day 29 now. I have some final preps here in NE Brazos county and Brenham. For this. POLARCANE 2021