Texas Winter 2020-2021

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UTSARoadrunner4
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5381 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:50 pm

ColdFusion wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:

You see, this is why I like the Euro. If I remember correctly I don’t think San Antonio got this much snow in 2017. I hope my job cancels it’s deliveries from tomorrow night to Tuesday morning. I don’t want to be sliding around in a delivery van full of groceries.



...dude i kinda need my groceries. :cheesy:

If I have to, I’ll get it to you as safe as possible. Just don’t be surprised if you ordered tomatoes and you see me at your door looking like I told a bad joke at a medieval comedy club :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5382 Postby bevolon » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:56 pm

In regards to the dry slot that is suddenly showing up over DFW. seems we went from 6" to maybe 3. Is this a common thing for the runs to do this? I feel like DFW has a permanent dry slot when it comes to winter weather! LOL!
Sorry if my questions seem a little dumb! I leave the weather map interpretations to you experts!

Thanks!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5383 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:04 pm

bevolon wrote:In regards to the dry slot that is suddenly showing up over DFW. seems we went from 6" to maybe 3. Is this a common thing for the runs to do this? I feel like DFW has a permanent dry slot when it comes to winter weather! LOL!
Sorry if my questions seem a little dumb! I leave the weather map interpretations to you experts!

Thanks!


There are areas of lesser amounts (due to variables) from model to model and run to run, sometimes over DFW, sometimes to the west, sometimes to east, sometimes to the south, sometimes to the southwest. But our minds is fixated where we feel there is a skepticism.

What's happened in the past for x storms doesn't have any bearing on what will happen for storm y, it's a whole new slate. The warnings are up and probabilities are out. Don't get too focused on how much and where, coverage is just as important. After a few days of shrinking snow coverage, the models are now expanding it to include areas to the south.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5384 Postby katheria » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:05 pm

ColdFusion wrote:Is there anyone here that went thru the 1983 Texas cold snap in Dallas? Curious how the infrastructure held up back then? Did parts of the city lose running water and how bad the power outages might have been?


Yes im a old fart lol....it was bad..main water lines under roads burst. 1000s did in homes...some areas were without power for a week..

..2 pipes burst in the house i lived in over night...one in a interior bathroom in the middle of the house and 1 to the water heater...
It was real fun waking up to a sunken living room full of freezing cold water that was 8" deep
And took hours and hours to get someone out to remove water...

Power did go out for 6 days..went to a hotel..

Its not something i want to repeat...for water is being turned off tomorrow morning to the house
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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5385 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:06 pm

GEFS is ridiculous. Over 6" for half the state. 12" for almost a quarter of the state, in the NE quarter no less. That is mean. Several members are in the 3 foot range.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5386 Postby bevolon » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:08 pm

Thanks for the explanation! Sorry for the freakout!
I'll just enjoy the ride and enjoy the knowledge on this board!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5387 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:09 pm

bevolon wrote:In regards to the dry slot that is suddenly showing up over DFW. seems we went from 6" to maybe 3. Is this a common thing for the runs to do this? I feel like DFW has a permanent dry slot when it comes to winter weather! LOL!
Sorry if my questions seem a little dumb! I leave the weather map interpretations to you experts!

Thanks!


:roll: Until you have experienced the Washington DC snow hole, you have no idea what it feels like to be dry slotted. lol
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5388 Postby bevolon » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:11 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
bevolon wrote:In regards to the dry slot that is suddenly showing up over DFW. seems we went from 6" to maybe 3. Is this a common thing for the runs to do this? I feel like DFW has a permanent dry slot when it comes to winter weather! LOL!
Sorry if my questions seem a little dumb! I leave the weather map interpretations to you experts!

Thanks!


:roll: Until you have experienced the Washington DC snow hole, you have no idea what it feels like to be dry slotted. lol



One of our employees is from that area and he said the same thing!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5389 Postby shah83 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:13 pm

I'm a little concerned about the oil industry in the main Eagle Ford shale areas. Sort of feels like this could damage a lot of equipment.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5390 Postby Skarismitty75 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:18 pm

shah83 wrote:I'm a little concerned about the oil industry in the main Eagle Ford shale areas. Sort of feels like this could damage a lot of equipment.


Yeah not used to seeing too many frozen pumps and standpipes on rigs that far south. Winterizing a rig is a task and it aint getting done down there you can bet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5391 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:20 pm

If anyone has touched on this already I apologize, but what causes dry slots, especially in urban areas? Urban Heat Island Effect? Microscale/local conditions? Shear Luck? All of the above?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5392 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:26 pm

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#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5393 Postby EnnisTx » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:30 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:If anyone has touched on this already I apologize, but what causes dry slots, especially in urban areas? Urban Heat Island Effect? Microscale/local conditions? Shear Luck? All of the above?



by Ntxw » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:04 pm

There are areas of lesser amounts (due to variables) from model to model and run to run, sometimes over DFW, sometimes to the west, sometimes to east, sometimes to the south, sometimes to the southwest. But our minds is fixated where we feel there is a skepticism.

What's happened in the past for x storms doesn't have any bearing on what will happen for storm y, it's a whole new slate. The warnings are up and probabilities are out. Don't get too focused on how much and where, coverage is just as important. After a few days of shrinking snow coverage, the models are now expanding it to include areas to the south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5394 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:32 pm

Incoming NAM with sleet all the way down to Brownsville Monday morning. Wow.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5395 Postby ColdFusion » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:55 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
ColdFusion wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:You see, this is why I like the Euro. If I remember correctly I don’t think San Antonio got this much snow in 2017. I hope my job cancels it’s deliveries from tomorrow night to Tuesday morning. I don’t want to be sliding around in a delivery van full of groceries.



...dude i kinda need my groceries. :cheesy:

If I have to, I’ll get it to you as safe as possible. Just don’t be surprised if you ordered tomatoes and you see me at your door looking like I told a bad joke at a medieval comedy club :lol:


Be safe out there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5396 Postby SnowintheFalls » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:57 pm

Hard to imagine over 100 pages on one system! Seems many were throwing in the towel on this winter before this showed up. Is it Saturday night yet?? :cold: :froze:
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There is no day like a snow day!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5397 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:59 pm

Snowing like it has been for at least 30 hours now . . .

13°F


Also, Radar is picking up heavier pockets of snow in NW Oklahoma, heading to the east . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5398 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:09 pm

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
901 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...HISTORIC WINTER STORM POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...

Impacts will begin as early as Saturday morning with patchy
freezing drizzle developing late tonight into Saturday morning,
which will lead to a light glaze of ice in some locations. After
a brief break in precipitation on Saturday, conditions will begin
to deteriorate late Saturday evening, with precipitation
transitioning from a sleet and freezing rain mix to all snow by
Sunday. The heaviest snow can be expected on Sunday and Monday.
High winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow with wind
chills falling to below zero by late Sunday. Snow will come to an
end during the day Monday, but extremely cold temperatures will
persist through mid-week. The heavy snow and forecast long
duration of extremely cold temperatures will likely lead to major
stress on the region`s infrastructure as well as crippling travel
for several days.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131115-
/O.CON.KFWD.WS.W.0003.210213T1200Z-210216T0000Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-
Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper,
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory,
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman,
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose,
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens,
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico,
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague,
Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove,
Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia,
Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood,
Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert
901 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches along with light icing due to
freezing drizzle and light freezing rain. Some snow drifts may
exceed 7 inches. Strong winds will result very restricted
visibility and possibly life threatening wind chills!

* WHERE...North and Central Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult...if not impossible
late Sunday into Monday. The extremely low wind chills as low as
15 below zero will become life threatening to people and animals
outside without adequate warmth or shelter! The strong winds
could also result in blowing and drifting of snow yielding near
white out conditions with visibility less than 1/2 mile.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A major winter storm is forecast to occur. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Prepare
for power outages and have non-perishable food and water on hand.
Do not travel unless it is an emergency. If you must travel, keep
an extra blanket, flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in
case you become stranded.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

&&

$$

Bain
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5399 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:16 pm

0z ICON

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5400 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:18 pm

Not a Big fan of the recent model trends for DFW. That said I’ve been around this game long enough to know that when the GFS runs in less than an hour I could be giddy with excitement.
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