Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5421 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:11 pm

txtwister78 wrote:Based on trends...I would expect EWX (AUS/SAT) and even Houston NWS to update snowfall accumulations overnight.


One thing I'm noticing in some of the higher res models tonight is the possibility of a very heavy snow band that tracks southeastward from the Hill Country to Austin/SA. It could bring a burst of 2-3 inches in an hour or two. Kinda similar to the 2017 snow event, but with several hours of light freezing rain and sleet ahead of it this time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5422 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:12 pm

Nothing too drastic from prior runs on the GFS, continues the theme of an historic 1 2 punch Sunday and Wednesday.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5423 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:14 pm

orangeblood wrote:Nothing too drastic from prior runs on the GFS, continues the theme of an historic 1 2 punch Sunday and Wednesday.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1613174400/1613617200-rkzqEx8pJVk.png


And what Brent said. These temps you can't even draw up in fantasy la la land.

Who in their right minds would ever believe anything from 1899 gets broken. That's the untouchable year you only talk about.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5424 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Nothing too drastic from prior runs on the GFS, continues the theme of an historic 1 2 punch Sunday and Wednesday.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1613174400/1613617200-rkzqEx8pJVk.png


And what Brentsaid. These temps you can't even draw up in fantasy la la land.

Who in their right minds would ever believe anything from 1899 gets broken.


Go check out the 0Z GFS-P...insane :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5425 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:19 pm

The TT GFS just posted looks completely different from WXBell. So confused...

Nevermind. I see the second one includes both storms. Duh. Been on here too much.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5426 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Nothing too drastic from prior runs on the GFS, continues the theme of an historic 1 2 punch Sunday and Wednesday.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1613174400/1613617200-rkzqEx8pJVk.png


And what Brent said. These temps you can't even draw up in fantasy la la land.

Who in their right minds would ever believe anything from 1899 gets broken. That's the untouchable year you only talk about.


I mean it was one thing when it was 5-7 days out but to see it still there now :double: :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5427 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:24 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Nothing too drastic from prior runs on the GFS, continues the theme of an historic 1 2 punch Sunday and Wednesday.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1613174400/1613617200-rkzqEx8pJVk.png


And what Brentsaid. These temps you can't even draw up in fantasy la la land.

Who in their right minds would ever believe anything from 1899 gets broken.


Go check out the 0Z GFS-P...insane :double:


It would be the most snow Brent has seen in his entire life in one week. But yeah anything is on the table at this point, I still don't think models yet will handle it until Sunday for the midweek system.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5428 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:26 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:The TT GFS just posted looks completely different from WXBell. So confused...


TT doesn’t differentiate sleet from snow accumulations is one of the reasons, it can be really deceiving particularly when forecasting snowfall amounts...here are the sleet accumulations

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5429 Postby David45 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:33 pm

I live in the corner of NW MS where that 0.8 of sleet is. Any chance we get an earlier snow changeover for higher amounts? The models have been all over the place with amounts in this area. Local NWS only saying snow up to 2 inches.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5430 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:34 pm

Latest DFW graphic says 4-6 instead of 3-6 and shows no “dry slot.”
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5431 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:39 pm

Two big cold air outbreaks are often mentioned as measuring sticks in Texas, and that's definitely been the case in this thread lately: February 1899 and December 1983. These cold air outbreaks were infamous for their longevity, extent, extreme cold, and destructive power. I wanted to see how this current cold wave so far + the GFS forecast compares to these other cold air benchmarks, so I plotted the temperature time series for those events in addition to what might be coming (based on the GFS) for a few locations. I'll probably get around to plotting a few more if I have the time. Of course, this is just one model depiction.

This is a generational event, and it just so happens to be coupled with rare repeated shots of wintry weather. In their most recent full forecast discussion write-up, NWS Austin/San Antonio had this to say:

NWS Austin/San Antonio wrote:This is an unprecedented week of weather for South-Central Texas. Our collective group of meteorologists at our offices can not remember a time where we had 4 potential winter weather events across our County Warning Area in one week.

Note: the values for 1899 are estimates based off of the daily high and low temperature, so treat those lines more generally and not as precise readouts. The 1983 and 2021 observations are from the hourly reports. Vertical lines mark every 24 hours. Each line starts at around 12Z of the morning before temperatures fell below average.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5432 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:44 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:Two big cold air outbreaks are often mentioned as measuring sticks in Texas, and that's definitely been the case in this thread lately: February 1899 and December 1983. These cold air outbreaks were infamous for their longevity, extent, extreme cold, and destructive power. I wanted to see how this current cold wave so far + the GFS forecast compares to these other cold air benchmarks, so I plotted the temperature time series for those events in addition to what might be coming (based on the GFS) for a few locations. I'll probably get around to plotting a few more if I have the time. Of course, this is just one model depiction.

This is a generational event, and it just so happens to be coupled with rare repeated shots of wintry weather. In their most recent full forecast discussion write-up, NWS Austin/San Antonio had this to say:

NWS Austin/San Antonio wrote:This is an unprecedented week of weather for South-Central Texas. Our collective group of meteorologists at our offices can not remember a time where we had 4 potential winter weather events across our County Warning Area in one week.

Note: the values for 1899 are estimates based off of the daily high and low temperature, so treat those lines more generally and not as precise readouts. The 1983 and 2021 observations are from the hourly reports. Vertical lines mark every 24 hours. Each line starts at around 12Z of the morning before temperatures fell below average.

https://i.imgur.com/mGpvID8.png
https://i.imgur.com/HI23nn4.png
https://i.imgur.com/0csuPAZ.png
https://i.imgur.com/TtH7DLF.png
https://i.imgur.com/R39LsVG.png


That is great stuff, thanks for taking the time to research, plot, and post.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5433 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:03 am

Ukmet (10:1) and doubles with second system. Gets DFW down below 0. Austin in the low single digits.

Image

FYI the snow hole is over eastern Oklahoma.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5434 Postby Quixotic » Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:16 am

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Nothing too drastic from prior runs on the GFS, continues the theme of an historic 1 2 punch Sunday and Wednesday.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_kuchera/1613174400/1613617200-rkzqEx8pJVk.png


And what Brent said. These temps you can't even draw up in fantasy la la land.

Who in their right minds would ever believe anything from 1899 gets broken. That's the untouchable year you only talk about.


I mean it was one thing when it was 5-7 days out but to see it still there now :double: :double:


Feels pretty good not to have to chase this time, eh?

I probably would do it too if it had been so long but up until the beginning of last year, I had Canada on my service routes because either nobody wanted it or couldn’t go because of legal or passport problems. I got my fix up there. Still not the same as IMBY though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5435 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:18 am

Just changed the TV and The Day After Tomorrow is on....Perfect timing or precursor of what's to come?? :P :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5436 Postby Quixotic » Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:26 am

One winter that I would take over 83 would be 77-78. That was a monster. The airport snow total, although the record, doesn’t do it justice. 09-10 is a close second. For one event, the 78-79 ice storm was the worst. Now power for almost a week. I may change my mind as I neglected to drain my sprinkler system before this stretch began.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5437 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:27 am

Quixotic wrote:One winter that I would take over 83 would be 77-78. That was a monster. The airport snow total, although the record, doesn’t do it justice. 09-10 is a close second. For one event, the 78-79 ice storm was the worst. Now power for almost a week. I may change my mind as I neglected to drain my sprinkler system before this stretch began.


09-10 was pretty good but it never seemed to break any kind of real cold records. 77-78 is legendary. 1963-1964 is another top dog, similar to 09-10 except with the severe cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5438 Postby katheria » Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:37 am

bubba hotep wrote:Hopefully, people cam grasp how crazy this is for DFW...

https://i.ibb.co/bsbLRWV/Capture-2021-02-12-22-02-53-1.png


Conversations i overheard at several stores today

Its not going to snow dont worry about it

Lol it will never snow

Yeah right...it wont go below 20

They cant ever get the weather right..im still leaving for houston on sunday morning..

All these people are stupid if they think it will snow and get bad here

:double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5439 Postby EnnisTx » Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:40 am

Ntxw wrote:
Quixotic wrote:One winter that I would take over 83 would be 77-78. That was a monster. The airport snow total, although the record, doesn’t do it justice. 09-10 is a close second. For one event, the 78-79 ice storm was the worst. Now power for almost a week. I may change my mind as I neglected to drain my sprinkler system before this stretch began.


09-10 was pretty good but it never seemed to break any kind of real cold records. 77-78 is legendary. 1963-1964 is another top dog, similar to 09-10 except with the severe cold.


I remember 77-78 and 83 it along 09-10 were all great winter weather events for me. 2021? yet to be seen! Anyone want to throw out a prediction for the Sunday-Monday snow totals and the lowest temperature for the DFW?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5440 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:43 am

EnnisTx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Quixotic wrote:One winter that I would take over 83 would be 77-78. That was a monster. The airport snow total, although the record, doesn’t do it justice. 09-10 is a close second. For one event, the 78-79 ice storm was the worst. Now power for almost a week. I may change my mind as I neglected to drain my sprinkler system before this stretch began.


09-10 was pretty good but it never seemed to break any kind of real cold records. 77-78 is legendary. 1963-1964 is another top dog, similar to 09-10 except with the severe cold.


I remember 77-78 and 83 it along 09-10 were all great winter weather events for me. 2021? yet to be seen! Anyone want to throw out a prediction for the Sunday-Monday snow totals and the lowest temperature for the DFW?

I am working on my evening forecast package for Lindale, I'll let you know what I settle on once I'm done.

Also, just got the expected email from Ambit regarding the need to cut back on electricity usage over the coming days. I expect all providers will be issuing similar requests to customers.
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