Texas Winter 2020-2021

[cstrunk]

If the inversion can stay below freezing totals will ramp up dramatically in NE TX which is why I am thinking NE TX sees 12-20+" this week. If not NE TX is looking at 6-12" with 1-2" of sleet. in between storms I could see some one in NE TX get down to below -5. One thing to remember is there will likely be another very cold morning Friday with temps in the 5-15 range. NE TX may finally get above freezing by Saturday. FYI my definition of NE TX is east of DFW and north of I-20.

Models have definitely supported this, combined with the underestimation of cold air. Exact amounts TBD of course, but 3"-6" of snow from each event plus some ice seems like the floor.

Hope everyone is ready!

[Tammie]

FW NWS just posted on Facebook that roads in and around DFW are becoming ice glazed from freezing drizzle. BE SAFE FRIENDS!!!!

[Tammie]

Snow grains falling and sticking in Sherman.

[Ralph's Weather]

If the inversion can stay below freezing totals will ramp up dramatically in NE TX which is why I am thinking NE TX sees 12-20+" this week. If not NE TX is looking at 6-12" with 1-2" of sleet. in between storms I could see some one in NE TX get down to below -5. One thing to remember is there will likely be another very cold morning Friday with temps in the 5-15 range. NE TX may finally get above freezing by Saturday. FYI my definition of NE TX is east of DFW and north of I-20.

Models have definitely supported this, combined with the underestimation of cold air. Exact amounts TBD of course, but 3"-6" of snow from each event plus some ice seems like the floor.

Hope everyone is ready!

Crazy, but realistic at this point. We will likely have snow on the ground from Sunday until early the following week.

[Iceresistance]

Still snowing, but very light right now, woke up to .5 inch on the ground

10°F

[Iceresistance]

Updated snow totals from NWS-Norman, 8-10 inches now . . .

[gpsnowman]

FW NWS just posted on Facebook that roads in and around DFW are becoming ice glazed from freezing drizzle. BE SAFE FRIENDS!!!!

Ugh. I have to go to work soon. Yes my car is coated in a thin layer of ice. Just lovely.

[Ralph's Weather]

If the inversion can stay below freezing totals will ramp up dramatically in NE TX which is why I am thinking NE TX sees 12-20+" this week. If not NE TX is looking at 6-12" with 1-2" of sleet. in between storms I could see some one in NE TX get down to below -5. One thing to remember is there will likely be another very cold morning Friday with temps in the 5-15 range. NE TX may finally get above freezing by Saturday. FYI my definition of NE TX is east of DFW and north of I-20.

Models have definitely supported this, combined with the underestimation of cold air. Exact amounts TBD of course, but 3"-6" of snow from each event plus some ice seems like the floor.

Hope everyone is ready!

Crazy, but realistic at this point. We will likely have snow on the ground from Sunday until early the following week.

Reviewing models for both storms I say worst case DFW sees 0.5" QPF, meaning say 0.1" QPF as mix being 0.25" accumulation and 0.4" as snow at 10:1 being 4" accumulation. Most likely it is closer to 1" QPF with all as snow and at 14:1 ratio meaning 10 to 14" of snow. And of course even higher is possible. So say a range of 4 to 24".

Tyler could see 1.5 to 2" QPF but could lose 1/3 to mix and ratios more like 12:1. So 1 to 2" of ice and sleet along with 12 to 18" or snow. Worst case being 1" QPF and half lost to sleet being 1 to 2" sleet and 5" snow. Best case 2.5" QPF with 90% snow at 14:1 being 0.5 to 1" sleet and 30 to 36" snow. So say a range of 6 to 36".

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[Iceresistance]

0z GFS-Para



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall



Grand Total

[Iceresistance]

0z GEFS is looking really bad . . .

Mean Snowfall

9-12 inches in Central Oklahoma
8-16 inches in DFW


Ensemble Snowfall

(Member #18 is is the true definition of the "Storm of the Century" )



(NOTE: All snowfall totals here are in 10:1 Ratio, Oklahoma is from 15:1 to 25:1 Ratios)

[Iceresistance]

0z CMC



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[Iceresistance]

0z UKMET

NOTE: Only does 10:1 Ratio snowfalls

[Iceresistance]

0z Euro



NOTE: This is the 10:1 Ratio snowfall, totals are likely over 12 inches in Central Oklahoma

[Portastorm]

Light freezing drizzle already has created black ice conditions throughout the Austin area. Law enforcement getting overwhelmed with so many accidents here. People need to stay home!!

I'll be working the event for our VOST so if I don't post much here, that's why.

[txtwister78]

06z Euro & Ensemble...seeing an increase in freezing drizzle across parts of San Antonio with accidents and closures reported by TXDOT. Not going to get any better as temps stay at or below freezing the rest of the day.

[gboudx]

From Jeff Lindner:

Upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning starting at 900pm Saturday for areas north and west of Houston

High impact winter storm will affect the area Sunday night into Monday midday with severe travel hazards

Extreme cold temperatures will be in place Monday and Tuesday resulting in widespread challenges

Discussion:
Short range models are coming in faster and stronger with a disturbance for this evening and overnight and have also shifted the freezing line southward tonight from roughly north of Victoria to west of Katy to near Tomball to Conroe. Precipitation is expected to develop late this afternoon and evening over the area and linger into Sunday morning. Areas northwest of the freezing line will likely see accumulations of ice on bridges and overpasses and all elevated surface…hence the Winter storm warning start time has been moved up to 900pm this evening. Travel conditions will likely become hazardous overnight into Sunday morning in the warning area and all precautions for the upcoming extreme cold should be completed today.

Sunday afternoon-Monday midday:
A much stronger upper level storm system will move across Texas during this time period resulting in widespread freezing and frozen precipitation. Precipitation will begin to develop late Sunday afternoon and overspread the entire area Sunday evening. Temperature profiles support a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow across much of the entire area with more freezing rain along and south of I-10 and more sleet and snow north of I-10. Latest global and short range models have increased the snowfall amounts across SE TX due to their showing of meso scale banding and higher intensity snowfall and sleetfall rates. Will bump up snow totals a bit and see if this trend continues. North winds of 15-25mph are likely Sunday into Monday and this will add extra stress against ice coated trees and powerlines and may result in power outages.

Accumulations:
Freezing rain: 1/10th to 1/4th an inch over much of the area, especially the US 59 corridor
Sleet: ½ to 1 inch mainly north of I-10
Snow: 1-2 inches north of I-10, 2-4 inches north of HWY 105

Much of the area will see a period of freezing rain with temperatures in the mid 20’s so a layer of ice will be formed below any sleet or snow accumulations.

Travel starting Sunday evening will become nearly impossible and is strongly discouraged…anyone attempting to travel should be prepared to become stranded on roadways

Monday-Tuesday Cold:
Record breaking cold is likely during this period with temperatures falling below freezing Sunday afternoon and evening and likely remaining below freezing into Wednesday. Models have continued to trend a bit colder, but there is little difference between 8/9 and 11/13 so with let the forecast ride in the low teens for all areas north of I-10 and then 1’s Waller and Montgomery counties northward. Mid to upper 10’s into the coastal areas and near 20 at the beaches. Simply put the cold will result in devastating impacts to the region both to infrastructure and vegetation. Wind chills Monday afternoon into Tuesday will fall into the -1’s and 1’s over the entire area…this is extremely dangerous cold to exposed skin and persons should limit their time outdoors and make sure all exposed skin is covered.

I cannot stress enough that maximum cold weather preparation MUST be taken to help attempt to mitigate significant property damage.

Preparations:

Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.

Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.

Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.

Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.

Detailed Forecast for Harris County:
Today: Cloudy with a 30% chance of afternoon and evening light rain and drizzle. High in the upper 30’s. N wind 10-15mph

Sunday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of light rain or drizzle early then a chance of freezing rain and sleet by evening. Temperatures steady in the mid 30’s . N wind 15-20mph. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s.

Monday: Cloudy with a 100% chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Ice accumulation of up to 1/4th an inch and snow accumulation of 1-2 inches. Temperatures steady in the mid 20’s. N wind 15-25mph. Wind chills in the 10’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a low in the low to mid 10’s and high near 30. N wind 5-10mph. Wind chills 1’s.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of precipitation. Low in the mid 20’s and high in the mid 30’s. NE wind 10-15mph.

[Iceresistance]

Flurries & the clouds are trying to break up in some areas

9°F

[rwfromkansas]

Lots of social media reports of icy patches/stretches on roads despite the apparently misleading Drive TX website showing clear for DFW. We were going to go from FW to Rockwall to get something notarized with witnesses. Nope. More icing up here than I expected.

That’s also something I am wondering about for tomorrow. I recall some snows growing up that outperformed in very cold air. These systems can squeeze out every bit of moisture. Models don’t always pick that up.

[Ntxw]

Lots of social media reports of icy patches/stretches on roads despite the apparently misleading Drive TX website showing clear for DFW. We were going to go from FW to Rockwall to get something notarized with witnesses. Nope. More icing up here than I expected.

That’s also something I am wondering about for tomorrow. I recall some snows growing up that outperformed in very cold air. These systems can squeeze out every bit of moisture. Models don’t always pick that up.

It is 20F at DFW. Even the smallest amount of liquid will freeze. I doubt we top mid 20s. Each day this week has been colder than the day before.