Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5801 Postby gboudx » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:36 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
gboudx wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:If the 0z HRRR is to be believed, then my parents in southeast Louisiana need to be under a winter storm or ice storm warning. :eek:


Where are they? North shore or south shore?


They're up on North Shore, even elevated by about 100 feet so it could get interesting for them.


Ah so north of I-12. I haven’t seen much showing wintry precip for the south shore. My folks and father in law have homes 10’ up so I’ve been wary of the temps for pipes underneath freezing.
1 likes   

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2628
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5802 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:39 pm

Um, NWS just reduced snow DFW to 3-4 inches. Hope it doesn’t drop more.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5803 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:40 pm

FWD ninja'd the graphic after issuing a pretty positive AFD this afternoon.

Image
3 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5804 Postby gboudx » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:41 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Um, NWS just reduced snow DFW to 3-4 inches.


That’s still more snow than we’ve had in like forever. I’ll take whatever winter gives us.
6 likes   

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1092
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:09 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5805 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:44 pm

gboudx wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Um, NWS just reduced snow DFW to 3-4 inches.


That’s still more snow than we’ve had in like forever. I’ll take whatever winter gives us.


I think that forecasting snow is about as difficult as forecasting where an afternoon summer thunderstorm will form. There is so much in weather we still do not understand.
8 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8731
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5806 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:45 pm

bubba hotep wrote:FWD ninja'd the graphic after issuing a pretty positive AFD this afternoon.

https://i.ibb.co/PmttV3Y/image7.jpg


While I have mucho respect for the NWS FTW office they have been off on temps all week, and I believe the original 4-6" is the more accurate forecast. However I think they will be chasing Tuesdays system till it pushes east. Either way going to be a cold and week snowy ahead.
4 likes   

User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5807 Postby iorange55 » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:47 pm

I would not worry one bit. Impossible to know exactly where heaviest precip will be. A shift of 40 or 50 miles can be the difference in 3 inches vs 6 or 7

That being said, enjoy the almost guaranteed three inches! And then more on Tuesday and Wednesday!
5 likes   

rwfromkansas
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2628
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5808 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:49 pm

gboudx wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Um, NWS just reduced snow DFW to 3-4 inches.


That’s still more snow than we’ve had in like forever. I’ll take whatever winter gives us.


Oh yeah, 3-4 is a good snow. I will take it. Just hope it isn’t a trend. But, the high-res models to me still look better for higher, say 5-7.
4 likes   

User avatar
txtwister78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1867
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5809 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:52 pm

It's a mess in San Antonio right now...numerous accidents. Don't understand why people ignore the warnings. Unbelievable what I'm hearing on scanner traffic right now regarding the amount of accidents/highways being shut down.
6 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snow
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 784
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:06 pm
Location: N. Dallas & Cedar Creek Lake

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5810 Postby Texas Snow » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:53 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
gboudx wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Um, NWS just reduced snow DFW to 3-4 inches.


That’s still more snow than we’ve had in like forever. I’ll take whatever winter gives us.


Oh yeah, 3-4 is a good snow. I will take it. Just hope it isn’t a trend. But, the high-res models to me still look better for higher, say 5-7.


Agree never discount the NWS just because you want more. They see more that any of us do. Of course they can miss.

As I told a friend tonight, with a another storm 2 days after the first, I’m not going to complain if I “only get 4” or even if I get more than that but everyone else gets more. We will have snow on the ground all week and will add to it in just a few days. We live in Texas. Be thankful. We may never get this again.
Last edited by Texas Snow on Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
7 likes   
"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"

Image

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5811 Postby jasons2k » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:54 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:ALB issued a severe thunderstorm warning for hail and 60mph winds. This is with snow as the precip type. System seems more dynamic than expected.

Do you mean ABX?
0 likes   

Tejas89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:25 pm
Location: DFW, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5812 Postby Tejas89 » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:57 pm

NWS going with the dry slot over the DFW metro area. Heavier amounts north and south.
0 likes   

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5813 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:58 pm

NWS Brownsville had to dust off the old Winter Storm Watch :lol:

Image
3 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5814 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:00 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:ALB issued a severe thunderstorm warning for hail and 60mph winds. This is with snow as the precip type. System seems more dynamic than expected.

Do you mean ABX?

Albuquerque, NM
Last edited by Ralph's Weather on Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
TexasSam
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 573
Age: 66
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 12:16 am
Location: Port Arthur, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5815 Postby TexasSam » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:01 pm

TheProfessor wrote:If the 0z HRRR is to be believed, then my parents in southeast Louisiana need to be under a winter storm or ice storm warning. :eek:

Yeah, Lake Charles seems to be a bit off, shall we say.
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6179
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5816 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:05 pm

:uarrow: With all due respect to them, NWS also went with high temps a portion of this week that busted. Like others said, I wouldn’t worry just yet.

Maybe they’re low, maybe they are high, maybe they are right on. We’ll see if they’re right in 24-hours or so.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22790
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5817 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:06 pm

0z RGEM looks similar to 18z with 4-6". It peaks in North Texas at 8" near Stephenville (of course! snow magnet) to bring their total near 18" for the season!

Snow hole is between Abilene and Eastland on this run of this model. Also is a big run for San Antonio with 6-8" there and 3-5" in Austin.
6 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
cctxhurricanewatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1206
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:53 pm
Location: Corpus Christi, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5818 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:06 pm

jasons2k wrote:It is colder in Bay City, Palacios, and Port Lavaca -- even Corpus and points south - than it is up here at my place. Crazy.


I’ve seen this a few times with even a routine cold spell. Gulf influence a little stronger up there and the air takes the path of leases resistance?
0 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5819 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:07 pm

SHV has me in Lindale with 3 to 7" for tomorrow night
2 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Quixotic
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 729
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:27 am
Location: Frisco

Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5820 Postby Quixotic » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:08 pm

I will say the band of 3-4” in the FWD graphic kinda matches that stupid dry slot that the euro had.
4 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests