Texas Winter 2020-2021

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m sticking to my guns on 4-6”. If that dry slot materializes with the amounts the nam depicts when it’s all done, I will quote this post and eat my crow.

[TheProfessor]

I am a little surprised that the NWS isn't riding the WRF models a bit more, although they did trend down for 0z they would still support 3-6" for DFW. The NMMB model trended upwards (but maybe they used the 12z for their forecast). They really love the WRF though, at least they did while I was there. SREF mean is also 4" so I think 3-6" range makes sense right now.

[Snowman67]

It is colder in Bay City, Palacios, and Port Lavaca -- even Corpus and points south - than it is up here at my place. Crazy.

What is the temperature where your at? I'm in Tomball and it's 32. Port Lavaca and Corpus showing 34F.

[Ntxw]

GFS is still a pretty good run so lets hug it till the end.

[orangeblood]

What has happened to this board? Complaints about 3-4 inches of snow as the low end on any current model...come on ladies and gentlemen, think about where we live!

[Texas Snow]

What has happened to this board? Complaints about 3-4 inches of snow as the low end on any current model...come on ladies and gentlemen, think about where we live!

I understand being objective and not buying the most aggressive outcome, but abject negativity, defeatism, and pessimism is no way to live life. If you can’t take the ups with the downs, model watching isn’t for you......

[Ntxw]

What has happened to this board? Complaints about 3-4 inches of snow as the low end on any current model...come on ladies and gentlemen, think about where we live!

I understand being objective and not buying the most aggressive outcome, but abject negativity, defeatism, no pessimism is no way to live life.

It's understandable, DFW folks are so snow deprived if anything that can go wrong it will go wrong mentality.

We just need the early band to deliver and then people will be optimistic again. Once they get that 1" fresh powder blowing around they will forget the hunger.

[Brent]

What has happened to this board? Complaints about 3-4 inches of snow as the low end on any current model...come on ladies and gentlemen, think about where we live!

I agree as long as it's 3-4 inches I think the fear is it'll just trend down from here given the last few years

[jasons2k]

It is colder in Bay City, Palacios, and Port Lavaca -- even Corpus and points south - than it is up here at my place. Crazy.

What is the temperature where your at? I'm in Tomball and it's 32. Port Lavaca and Corpus showing 34F.

I'm at 36F, just east of I-45. Freezing where you are in Tomball and Magnolia. There is a sharp temperature gradient from east to west in Montgomery County. The 32F isotherm runs almost longitudinally N-S. I don't remember seeing it oriented that sharply N-S before.

[HockeyTx82]

What has happened to this board? Complaints about 3-4 inches of snow as the low end on any current model...come on ladies and gentlemen, think about where we live!

No fault of anyone but up until a a few hours ago the models looked more amped up it seemed per the posts. I think the disappointment is now as we get to the cusp all of sudden we are put back in our place. At this point will temps even verify with the near 0 to just below 0 forecasts?

Like you said remember where we live.

As long as I'm off work and school is canceled it's a win in my book. Plus if it's so cold that my kids can't play in the snow due to perhaps getting frostbite where's the fun in that?

We all want the big snow totals and crazy low temps bit really our area is not setup for it and it could be very devastating at a time where the economy is in the tank and people are out of work or might be let go any day.

Whatever happens is up to mother nature and nothing we can do will change it.

Please no one take this personal, just my soap box rant.

[Ntxw]

What has happened to this board? Complaints about 3-4 inches of snow as the low end on any current model...come on ladies and gentlemen, think about where we live!

No fault of anyone but up until a a few hours ago the models looked more amped up it seemed per the posts. I think the disappointment is now as we get to the cusp all of sudden we are put back in our place. At this point will temps even verify with the near 0 to just below 0 forecasts?

Like you said remember where we live.

As long as I'm off work and school is canceled it's a win in my book. Plus if it's so cold that my kids can't play in the snow due to perhaps getting frostbite where's the fun in that?

We all want the big snow totals and crazy low temps bit really our area is not setup for it and it could be very devastating at a time where the economy is in the tank and people are out of work or might be let go any day.

Whatever happens is up to mother nature and nothing we can do will change it.

Please no one take this personal, just my soap box rant.

We'll all get our snow off day. The warnings alone is enough everything should close as long as something falls. The snow+wind and temps this is actually not going to be the kind to go out and play in. It's only best for quick pictures or watching. Wind chill is in the dangerous zone.

[jasons2k]

It's just one suite folks, chill out

I do think there will be a secondary maxima towards the coast for us in SE Texas. Copious moisture that will just dump in that cold air. I'm also getting concerned about the ice potential for points south/east of here.

[Brent]

NBC 5 still showing 6 inches for Dallas 4 inches metro wide

[Texas Snow]

AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
911 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/

/Tonight through Monday Morning/

Cloudy skies were still quite prevalent across North and Central
Texas early this evening, with the notable exception being a wedge
of clearing across Northeast and central parts of North Texas.
Water vapor imagery indicated a compact upper cyclone churning
across eastern Chihuahua and adjacent parts of Coahulia. This
feature will continue to dive southward with another strong upper
low scooting eastward across the 4 corners region. The positioning
of these features will result in strong upper level divergence
and the resultant surface mass response will induce a
strengthening warm air advection regime across Central Texas and
the Big Country. As this second upper trough ejects out into the
Lone Star State, we`ll see a widespread winter storm take shape.

A high impact winter storm still appears probable for North and
Central Texas. There will be a couple of waves of activity. The
first will be tonight into early Sunday with the main show for
this iteration of winter storm across North/Central Texas coming
during the afternoon and evening hours of Sunday. In general,
snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are anticipated with isolated
pockets of 6 to nearly 8 inches of snow expected. There will be
two snowfall maxes across North and Central Texas. Across North
Texas, areas near/north of the US HWY 380 corridor and west of
I-35 will have a risk to experience in excess of 6 inches of
snowfall. The other area will be across East Texas and down into
the Brazos Valley where snowfall totals may exceed 7 inches as
well.

For tonight, surface to 925mb winds will become more easterly. The
dry air that snuck into North Texas and halted our sub-freezing
temperature streak at D/FW and introduced some sunshine will
diminish as a result. Winds around 850mb will actually become more
southeasterly and this will induce strong isentropic upglide. Our
00 UTC weather balloon still supports primarily a freezing
drizzle/snow grain/sleet mix and that will be the main p-type
through the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Farther north toward I-20,
the potential for freezing drizzle will diminish as the warm nose
isn`t quite as sharp and these locations may see more of a
snow/sleet mix. I don`t anticipate much in the way of significant
accumulation during this initial round as the precipitation should
be light. However, any accumulation due to freezing drizzle/light
freezing rain will present a threat for slick and hazardous road
conditions.

Through the daylight hours on Sunday, we`ll see the vigor of warm
air advection aloft increase and as a result, precipitation
intensity should increase. Simultaneously, surface cyclogenesis
across the Concho Valley will turn surface winds more northerly
and with the isallobaric response, the magnitude of winds will
likely increase into the 20 to 25 mph range with gusts nearing 30
mph. At present time, it does appear that we will remain below
Blizzard Warning criteria (winds >= 35 mph, < 1/4 mile visibility
for a few hours), but I still anticipate that visibility will fall
below 1-2 miles with widespread blowing and drifting snow. This
blowing/drifting snow will result in near-white out conditions as
the afternoon wears on and if travel is absolutely necessary,
extreme care should be taken. In addition, supplies to ensure that
you can stay warm if stranded are highly advised.

In terms of the *general* onset of the heaviest precipitation, I
expect a band to develop west of the area and then sweep eastward,
loosing some of its vigor as it outpaces its forcing (strong
upper low). Before so, I anticipate the most intense precipitation
will to be northwest of the D/FW Metroplex between noon and 2pm.
Heavier snowfall will drift toward the US HWY 281 corridor around
the 2pm-4pm time frame, with moderate to briefly heavy
precipitation arriving at the D/FW Metroplex around 4pm-6pm. Areas
across Central and East Texas should experience their greatest
precipitation around or after 6pm.

In terms of the precipitation type, it appears most of the
precipitation should be snow/sleet by the afternoon. Because the
column is quite cold, we should be dealing with mainly with snow
(with plates/needles) though temperatures around 850 are just
above 0C across Central Texas (hence sleet). Initially, snow
crystals will be very, very small due to the dry air at the
surface. As the dry air at the surface erodes via
sublimation/evaporation, larger flakes should fall to the surface.
The cold conditions aloft will also mean loftier snowfall ratios
than typically experienced across the Southern Plains. Modifying
some of the snow ratios using BUFKIT in tandem with the expected
locations of greatest forcing (frontogenesis) results in a
slightly bifurcated snow total map. Should this forcing change
spatially, the areal depiction of snow amounts will also change.
I`m especially concerned about areas across East Texas where
forecast soundings indicate around 100 J/kg of CAPE, more than
adequate for deeper convective elements, more intense
precipitation and greater snow/sleet accumulations. If the current
forecast verifies perfectly, storm total snowfall amounts for
this event will actually be greatest across East Texas. If greater
instability is realized closer toward the I-35 corridor (i.e. the
Metroplex and Waco), then some of these areas may get in on the
heavier snowfall.

What will certainly be the most widespread impact will be the
extreme cold. Sunday daytime highs will be largely in the teens
and twenties and overnight low temperatures Sunday into Monday
will crater down into the low teens and single digits. Wind chills
are expected to plummet down into the -15 to -20 range. This is
the component of the winter storm that has the potential to be
deadly folks as frostbite and hypothermia will set in quickly to
people and animals if caught outside without adequate warmth.
Please, take this cold seriously as most of us have likely not
experienced conditions this cold!

While snow/sleet may stop falling toward midnight for some areas,
breezy northerly winds will result in continued blowing/drifting
snow.

Bain

[Tejas89]

Tarrant county and westplexers look in line for a batch of sleet soon.

[Brent]

Channel 8 3-6 inches
Channel 11 4-5 inches

Delkus really likes the Wednesday storm

[cheezyWXguy]

Tarrant county and westplexers look in line for a batch of sleet soon.

Yep it’s coming. Reflectivity already reaching 20dbz. It will probably take a little bit of time for it to saturate the column down to the surface, but not much. We’ll see what the initial reports say, but I’m betting on a mix of sleet and snow to start

[cstrunk]

Wow, that FWD discussion is pretty ominous for East Texas... 7"+ possible. It's definitely possible but I'm still also worried about sleet cutting into totals.

[Ntxw]

Tarrant county and westplexers look in line for a batch of sleet soon.

Yep it’s coming. Reflectivity already reaching 20dbz. It will probably take a little bit of time for it to saturate the column down to the surface, but not much. We’ll see what the initial reports say, but I’m betting on a mix of sleet and snow to start

If it reaches the ground, radar indicates snow with sleet mixed in. At least the ones I'm looking at.

[Quixotic]

Kinda worried about the dew point (10) compared to the temp (24). Some serious saturation is needed. The winds have picked up and CAA makes me wonder if it will dry even more.