2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[CyclonicFury]

Interestingly, 3 of my top 4 ENSO analogs for 2021 showed up as the #3, #4, and #5 best analogs based on 30 day SSTA on Tropical Tidbits.


Top 5 Analogs - Year: ACC
1974: 0.35
1976: 0.34
2011: 0.34
2008: 0.31
1999: 0.3

[Shell Mound]

CONUS Hurricane Strikes: 2016–20
Year.....Total...GoM.....EC
2016....2........1..........1
2017....3........3..........0
2018....2........1..........1
2019....2........1..........1
2020....6........5..........1
YYYY....15......11........4

CONUS Hurricane Strikes: CyclonicFury’s Analog Years (1996, 1999, 2008, 2011)
Year.....Total...GoM.....EC
1996....2........0..........2
1999....3........2..........1
2008....3........3..........0
2011....1........0..........1
YYYY....9........5..........4

If these analogs mean anything, maybe 2021 will feature more of a balance between GoM and EC hurricane landfalls than the past five seasons. We shall see. Based on historical data, the more pronounced Niña signature in the oceanic-atmospheric conditions (including +NAO via -ENSO/-PDO feedback), the stronger/farther northeast the Bermuda-Azores High, meaning hurricanes tend to make landfall farther north/east along the CONUS. Weakly Niña or cool neutral ENSO signature means less of a strongly -PDO/+NAO, hence storms making landfall farther south/west, e.g., in the GoM or on the Florida peninsula vs. the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. Stronger Niñas actually tend to suppress total NS due to outflow from the greater proportion of stronger hurricanes in the MDR. Bottom line: if the current trend toward a stronger global Niña signature persists through ASO, then we may see more of a hurricane threat to the East Coast north of peninsular Florida vs. the Gulf-centric activity we’ve tended to see over the past five seasons. After all, during strong(-er) Niñas storms tend to develop farther east in the MDR and become stronger, hence more opportunity to turn northward along the U.S. East Coast.

CycloneFurys analogs are not painting a good picture for my neck of the woods in ENC. 3 of those 4 years featured significant impacts from storms and some of NCs most notorious Hurricanes. 96' - Bertha and Fran, 99' - Floyd and Dennis(TS), 11' - Irene

ENC has also featured a landfalling Hurricane in each of the last 3 seasons. 18' -Florence 19' -Dorian 20' -Isaias. Matthew also caused massive flooding as it passed in 16. Coincidentally this time period reminds me of the mid-to-late 90s activity we saw here.

According to NOAA, the longest return rate for a MH impact in eastern NC is twenty-one years (thirty-four in SC). Fran (1996) is the most recent MH to make landfall in the Carolinas and the last MH impact in NC (Hugo ‘89 is the last MH impact in SC). Fran occurred twenty-four years ago, Hugo thirty-one. So NC at the very least is just about due for a major impact, or even a bit overdue. Certainly both NC/SC have seen a number of significant impacts from tropical storms and sub-major hurricanes recently, given epic flooding and widespread storm surge, so a major hurricane would be especially devastating in terms of wind-caused impacts. I think there is a better-than-average chance for the MH drought in NC to be finally broken this season. I also would advise South Florida to watch out for a late-season major impact from the south and west in October, given that double-dip Niñas often yield long-lasting seasons that extend well into November at times. But I definitely think the CV season will likely be much more intense than it was last season and that the Carolinas northward are likely to be in the crosshairs of at least one powerful long-tracker during peak season, ceteris paribus (all other factors being equal).

[tolakram]

Rather than prune this thread how about a reminder to stay on topic. This is the indicator thread and if you find yourself writing a book without any indicator discussion then you're in the wrong thread. Thanks.

[SFLcane]

Get ready folks!

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1360336749340225541

[chaser1]

Atlantic hurricane season implications aside..... anyone happen to notice the REALLY high anomaly for the Arctic regions? That's a bit concerning. I believe last summer held record heat and fires for large swaths of Siberia never seen before. Leave's me wondering about downstream (Fall/Winter) climate impact if this predicted anomalous heat verifies

[cainjamin]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1360682218453016581




Even more ominous signals unfortunately.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1360682218453016581

Even more ominous signals unfortunately.

It’s early but that’s Quite the signal in the Bahamas. Florida may not be so lucky this year but we shall see.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Interestingly, 3 of my top 4 ENSO analogs for 2021 showed up as the #3, #4, and #5 best analogs based on 30 day SSTA on Tropical Tidbits.


Top 5 Analogs - Year: ACC
1974: 0.35
1976: 0.34
2011: 0.34
2008: 0.31
1999: 0.3

Is this a coincidence that those years had VERY powerful severe storm seasons? I think not!!!

[SconnieCane]

Interestingly, 3 of my top 4 ENSO analogs for 2021 showed up as the #3, #4, and #5 best analogs based on 30 day SSTA on Tropical Tidbits.


Top 5 Analogs - Year: ACC
1974: 0.35
1976: 0.34
2011: 0.34
2008: 0.31
1999: 0.3

Is this a coincidence that those years had VERY powerful severe storm seasons? I think not!!!

We'll see. Apparently a lot of the climate model runs at the beginning of February were very lackluster for the spring, kind of flying in the face of all the other indicators. Of course they could easily be wrong at this range, but it's a bit eyebrow-raising that they were in such unanimous agreement.

https://stormtrack.org/community/thread ... ost-370406

[CyclonicFury]

Even the Euro looks relatively wet in the MDR and Africa for August, not a signal you want to see
 https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1361366540097052672

[Shell Mound]

Even the Euro looks relatively wet in the MDR and Africa for August, not a signal you want to see
https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1361366540097052672

As it did last year, it also seems to be showing a strong WAR that may either keep activity OTS or shunted toward the Caribbean/BoC/S GoM.

[Category5Kaiju]

Even the Euro looks relatively wet in the MDR and Africa for August, not a signal you want to see
https://twitter.com/CyclonicFury/status/1361366540097052672

As it did last year, it also seems to be showing a strong WAR that may either keep activity OTS or shunted toward the Caribbean/BoC/S GoM.

I'm also personally curious to see how much the Sahara dust will be a factor as well as whether we'll be seeing that "surprise" wind shear that unexpected weakened storms like Delta

[weeniepatrol]

insha'allah

[cycloneye]

insha'allah

https://i.imgur.com/CsEE5JE.png

Is Febuary.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1 ... 2940936193

According to Alex Boreham, for some reason the MDR has really cooled off. I am inclined to think that this is temporary and that a major SAL surge may be to blame, although I'm not 100% sure and somebody else may have more insight into this.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1363557282940936193

According to Alex Boreham, for some reason the MDR has really cooled off. I am inclined to think that this is temporary and that a major SAL surge may be to blame, although I'm not 100% sure and somebody else may have more insight into this.

That's me, appears to be a surge of trade winds coupled with a SAL surge. So, part of it is legitimate but it could be partly due to the SAL surge as you mentioned. Hard to count on this being something causing an inactive season, seems to be a springtime red herring that has repeated itself around Feb-Apr or so since 2017. Hard to tell what we'll have come ASO

[cycloneye]

Only 99 days left. Prepare early.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... sive&csz=1

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh yeah btw Weather Channel recently released a post about the names for this year's Atlantic season:

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... ason-names

Something I have noticed is they never mention what would happen if we somehow passed "Wanda" this season; while there's another separate thread on this topic and I'll avoid diving into detail here, I think there's real doubt about continued Greek alphabet use in the future

[weathaguyry]

Fascinating to see the indicators so bullish yet again this season. You'd think that with the positive AMO phase starting all the way back in 1995 that we wouldn't be seeing indicators like this after a season like 2020. However, I do have faith that maybe indicators can back off somewhat to at least not produce a season as horrendous and devastating as last year. After all, a record season can spoil us hurricane watchers rotten, just look at the 2006 numbers poll

[psyclone]

2006 was an epic burn for seasonal forecasters. It does seem like we're headed for another active year in 21.. with the limited visibility we have at this point. I'm certainly enjoying the off season..