Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snow]

Seems like the GFS Euro CMC and icon all have Wednesday/Thursdays snow starting barely north east of the metroplex (Think Rockwall in Northeast from there). Most show DFW getting a small amount but barely missing out on the big stuff

The EURo looked good for metro on 0Z but 12 Z trend towards the others

The NAM is slightly west but it still has the precept starting in Collin County basically. There you’ve got Dallas with 1.5 inches and just to the north McKinney with 9.1

I’ve been without power for hours so haven’t really compared anything other than just looking at snowfall totals. I know the other storm just ended but has anybody looked into this next one yet?

[Iceresistance]

Seems like the GFS euro and icon all have Wednesday/Thursdays snow starting barely north east of the metroplex (Think Rockwall in Northeast from there). Most show DFW getting a small amount but barely missing out on the big stuff

The EURo looked good for metro on 0Z but 12 Z trend towards the others

The NAM is slightly west but it still has the precept starting in Collin County basically. There you’ve got Dallas with 1.5 inches and just to the north McKinney with 9.1

I’ve been without power for hours so haven’t really compared anything other than just looking at snowfall totals. I know the other storm just ended but has anybody looked into this next one yet?

Yes, this one is going to dump the bullseye on me, AGAIN

EDIT: Up to 2 feet is expected in Western Arkansas . . .

[Ntxw]

10F IMBY at 1:00 pm with mostly sunny skies. Crazy.

Slight solar insolation melt in some places but snow pack largely intact. Roads and all.

This is insane i just took a drive that was pretty harrowing at times lol

It actually didn't seem too bad at first but coming back the opposite side was awful

Need chains for this kind of snow! I don't remember ever seeing anything like this in DFW on the roads. Usually friction or ground warmth (even in 2011) takes care of it once the sun comes out but it's still there. Certainly doesn't help when it's 12F .

[G'TownGirl]

Lowest reading on the Ambient station was 4.5 degrees (Assume it was accurate -- it usually is). All outside spigots were wrapped and had lights on them and they still froze. The two that are in the sun are flowing... one still refusing to give it up.

(I have images on GIFYU, but can't figure out how to put them up)

[Texas Snow]

Seems like the GFS euro and icon all have Wednesday/Thursdays snow starting barely north east of the metroplex (Think Rockwall in Northeast from there). Most show DFW getting a small amount but barely missing out on the big stuff

The EURo looked good for metro on 0Z but 12 Z trend towards the others

The NAM is slightly west but it still has the precept starting in Collin County basically. There you’ve got Dallas with 1.5 inches and just to the north McKinney with 9.1

I’ve been without power for hours so haven’t really compared anything other than just looking at snowfall totals. I know the other storm just ended but has anybody looked into this next one yet?

Well right as I asked that I read the updated forecast discussion. They are saying 3 to 5 from the DFW Northeastward which makes me think that we’re on the three, and thus possibly less as we approach. Istanbul seems the totals have been going down all week



As high pressure shifts to the east during the day Tuesday, winds
will become more southeasterly and allow moisture to be drawn
northward ahead of another digging shortwave trough. A lead
impulse will eject across the Southern Plains early on Tuesday and
should lead to an area of snow by Tuesday afternoon mainly across
our northwest and Red River counties. This initial snowfall may
only total an inch or so.

Later in the day, further amplification of upstream ridging off
the West Coast will allow a broad trough to continue digging into
the 4-corners region and West Texas. As it does, surface pressure
falls across Texas will lead to a broad surface trough draped
roughly along the I-20 corridor by midnight Tuesday night. This
will help pull additional moisture north and westward while deep
layer forcing for ascent begins to increase. The tightening low
level thermal gradient will result in a strengthening upper jet
of near 140 kt overnight Tuesday night right across Central and
North Texas. Widespread deep isentropic ascent through the lower
half of the atmosphere should lead to an area of precipitation
rapidly developing in the Texas Big Country and moving into North
Texas overnight Tuesday night. This should be mainly a freezing
rain and/or sleet mix which could result in additional significant
icing especially south of the Metroplex. As the trough pivots
eastward and colder air spills southward, a transition to all snow
is expected north of I-20 with additional snowfall amounts of 3
to 5 inches possible from the Metroplex northeast into the
Arklatex through Wednesday. In addition, temperatures will
continue to be very cold through the end of the week.

A Winter Storm Watch is expected to be issued this afternoon.

Dunn

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Does anyone have any models for Wednesday’s storm system? I doubt there will be any significant impacts for AUS/SA, but just want to be prepared for anymore cold weather situations.

[aggiecutter]

NWS Shreveport:

WINTER STORM WARNING

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy mixed precipitation
expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 8 inches and ice
accumulations of up to half an inch. For the Wind Chill
Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 15 below
zero.

* WHERE...Area-wide

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM Tuesday to noon
CST Thursday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST
Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind
chills could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman usually does not do their final thoughts on the Winter Storm Watch until after 4 PM . . .

[Ntxw]

13F so far at DFW so 1899 is safe for the lowest high ever. We are tied with 1983 right now which is 13F.

Impressive thing is bright full sun and blue skies . I'm sure those other days were socked under clouds.

[ztshanklin]

What is FW looking at for tomorrow night?

[rwfromkansas]

Shows how quickly things change. It’s likely for me in Tarrant Wednesday will be a minor storm, maybe an inch-2 now when two days ago it was going to be the bigger event.

This is why I hoped Sunday would perform. Relying on the second storm is foolish.

Now, if there is lots of ice...it will be dangerous.

[Texas Snow]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
231 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM ON THE WAY...

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-160600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0004.210217T0000Z-210218T1200Z/
/O.CON.KFWD.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210216T1800Z/
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-
Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-
Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman,
Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur,
Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano,
McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper,
Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar,
Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman,
Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory,
East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman,
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose,
Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens,
Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico,
Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague,
Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove,
Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia,
Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood,
Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert
231 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills.
Wind chills as low as 15 below zero. For the Winter Storm
Warning, heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with the heaviest amounts
northeast of the Metroplex. Widespread 1 to 3 inches expected
elsewhere. Ice accumulations of 1/10 to 1/4 inch expected.
Highest concentration of ice expected in the Waco/Temple/Killeen
areas northeast to Palestine and Canton.

* WHERE...All of North and Central Texas

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, until noon CST Tuesday. For
the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST
Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could become dangerous. Additional power
outages are expected. The cold wind chills could result in
hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Avoid travel late Tuesday Night into early
Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at
drivetexas.org.

[txtwister78]

Does anyone have any models for Wednesday’s storm system? I doubt there will be any significant impacts for AUS/SA, but just want to be prepared for anymore cold weather situations.

Yes it was just posted by the NWS. Winter Storm Warning issued for San Antonio/Austin metro regions. More freezing rain tomorrow night possible and then sleet/light snow (1-2 inches possible) for late Wednesday night. Wind chill and hard freeze warnings were also posted.

[Cerlin]

Lucky my dorm hasn’t lost power yet here but we’re supposed to have rolling blackouts soon. I think we officially got right at 6 inches but tomorrow is supposed to be the heavier storm. No school today and tomorrow!

[weatherdude1108]

Luckily didn't lose power, which I figured we'd be fine due to being connected to the nearby hospital grid unless a branch happened to fall on a line cutting this section off which so far hasn't. I have friends and family around the city that have lost their power. Hoping they are all doing okay along with everyone else in the state currently without electricity.

Lastnight was definitely an experience.. Most snow I have ever seen. Going to walk around with a measuring stick and check different areas of the yard to see how deep it is. I would say it's at least 6 inches if not more.

We got 6.5" here. Yeah, my mother n law and grandmother n law in Katy have been without power for 24 hours! I lost power for 5 seconds Thursday and flickered a few times. We filled our bath up the other day, just in case. Hoping to not need. I'm ready to cancel Winter!

[AubreyStorm]

Another storm this week folks? Right?

[Iceresistance]

Lucky my dorm hasn’t lost power yet here but we’re supposed to have rolling blackouts soon. I think we officially got right at 6 inches but tomorrow is supposed to be the heavier storm. No school today and tomorrow!

Yeah, even though that I'm not expected to have any rolling blackouts since I have CVEC.

6-8 inches expected (Higher totals East of I-35)

I measured 10 inches of snow at my house . . .

Got down to -6°F this morning

[Quixotic]

13F so far at DFW so 1899 is safe for the lowest high ever. We are tied with 1983 right now which is 13F.

Impressive thing is bright full sun and blue skies . I'm sure those other days were socked under clouds.

You are mostly correct. We had a couple of days like today but mostly socked in with flurries on and off.

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind
chills. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero. For the Winter
Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, southern, and
western Oklahoma and western north Texas.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, until noon CST Tuesday. For
the Winter Storm Warning, from noon Tuesday to 6 PM CST
Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The
cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Below zero wind chills will continue
Tuesday night into Wednesday across portions of the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

It's Showtime!

[rwfromkansas]

Boil notice for water now north FW...luckily north of me. Water plant out of power.