Texas Winter 2020-2021

[rwfromkansas]

The system seems pretty juiced out west already.

My school has called it for tomorrow due to the snow/ frankly ice now on the roads, cold temps, next storm, power outages, AND our region is now under a boil water advisory after they expanded it. Fun. I better at least get the 1-2 inches tonight to make for some pretty scenery tomorrow.

The family staying overnight due to no power still...has no power. Incredible. They went home today to check on the damage and will come back later today if not going on.

I will say further north the SPP grid is having shortages and going through rolling blackouts, but they are ACTUALLY rolling, not this mess. TX has really embarrassed itself.

[WacoWx]

Unless this Low gets juiced up the closer it gets to the GOM, it looks to be rather weak. Not very impressive on radar, but that could be bc im spoiled now on winter storms.

[orangeblood]

Don't worry, Temperatures are going to be in the 60s next week with the help of Heat Miser (Wxman57) . . .

Love the cold, but there is always to a certain point where it's no longer fun anymore.

I love this weather, I can’t get enough of it. But what I can’t stand is the strain it puts on our electric infrastructure. Thinking I’ll move to Colorado at some point.

What is going on right now was WORSE that expected, they did not expect prolonged cold at all & the Power Stations to freeze up . . .

And you then have to ask yourself, where were they getting their forecasts from ??? IMO Two big issues have arisen over the years with our NWS Pro Mets/TV Mets. 1) being European model huggers, that model clearly failed forecasting this Arctic Outbreak last week. It wasn’t like this wasn’t on the table, The ICON, GFS and Canadian were laying out the potential outcomes for everyone to see. But as was discussed ad nauseam on here, the forecasts were majorly flawed and the European model temp forecasts appeared to be a big culprit. And 2) taking a more Conservative vs Aggressive approach when it comes to forecasting. Disappointing the public because you missed (on the aggressive side) on a snow forecast, cold snap, tornado outbreak, or hurricane landfall shouldn’t be a policy maker. IMO Almost always go aggressive when the extremes of Mother Nature are present in the model world! Being conservative this time around, both from ERCOT planning and forecasting, caused a disaster of Epic proportions. A very important job of professional Mets is to give enough lead time for our community, including Energy Providers, to plan ahead. Now, I’m not saying all blame is placed on the forecasting community, a bigger issue is the Energy Infrastructure makeup/policy, but the Conservative vs Aggressive approach to forecasting is part of the problem. And it’s not just 1-2 week forecasts, even Seasonal, Long Term forecasts are extremely important for planning ahead. I truly hope there were numerous valuable lessons learned from this one.

[Ntxw]

I love this weather, I can’t get enough of it. But what I can’t stand is the strain it puts on our electric infrastructure. Thinking I’ll move to Colorado at some point.

What is going on right now was WORSE that expected, they did not expect prolonged cold at all & the Power Stations to freeze up . . .

And you then have to ask yourself, where were they getting their forecasts from ??? IMO Two big issues have arisen over the years with our NWS Pro Mets/TV Mets. 1) being European model huggers, that model clearly failed forecasting this Arctic Outbreak last week. It wasn’t like this wasn’t on the table, The ICON, GFS and Canadian were laying out the potential outcomes for everyone to see. But as was discussed ad nauseam on here, the forecasts were majorly flawed and the European model temp forecasts appeared to be a big culprit. And 2) taking a more Conservative vs Aggressive approach when it comes to forecasting. Disappointing the public because you missed (on the aggressive side) on a snow forecast, cold snap, tornado outbreak, or hurricane landfall shouldn’t be a policy maker. IMO Almost always go aggressive when the extremes of Mother Nature are present in the model world! Being conservative this time around, both from ERCOT planning and forecasting, caused a disaster of Epic proportions. A very important job of professional Mets is to give enough lead time for our community, including Energy Providers, to plan ahead. Now, I’m not saying all blame is placed on the forecasting community, a bigger issue is the Energy Infrastructure makeup/policy, but the Conservative vs Aggressive approach to forecasting is part of the problem. And it’s not just 1-2 week forecasts, even Seasonal, Long Term forecasts are extremely important for planning ahead. I truly hope there were numerous valuable lessons learned from this one.

My biggest beef is the skepticism the general public has. I can understand why of course with failed attempts. But people need to understand because it failed January 14th 1775, December 6th, 2018 has no bearing what will happen February 14th, 2021. Every set up is it's own doing. People needed to prepare in case they had no power and the cold being relentless. "It's not going to be cold or ice or snow today because it didn't the last three times" is a false statement.

But you make good points here, the majority of the guidance all told us an extreme event was coming, yet many latched on to the one that wasn't. That doesn't make sense in a forecasting standpoint and goes back to the skepticism point.

[Iceresistance]

What is going on right now was WORSE that expected, they did not expect prolonged cold at all & the Power Stations to freeze up . . .

And you then have to ask yourself, where were they getting their forecasts from ??? IMO Two big issues have arisen over the years with our NWS Pro Mets/TV Mets. 1) being European model huggers, that model clearly failed forecasting this Arctic Outbreak last week. It wasn’t like this wasn’t on the table, The ICON, GFS and Canadian were laying out the potential outcomes for everyone to see. But as was discussed ad nauseam on here, the forecasts were majorly flawed and the European model temp forecasts appeared to be a big culprit. And 2) taking a more Conservative vs Aggressive approach when it comes to forecasting. Disappointing the public because you missed (on the aggressive side) on a snow forecast, cold snap, tornado outbreak, or hurricane landfall shouldn’t be a policy maker. IMO Almost always go aggressive when the extremes of Mother Nature are present in the model world! Being conservative this time around, both from ERCOT planning and forecasting, caused a disaster of Epic proportions. A very important job of professional Mets is to give enough lead time for our community, including Energy Providers, to plan ahead. Now, I’m not saying all blame is placed on the forecasting community, a bigger issue is the Energy Infrastructure makeup/policy, but the Conservative vs Aggressive approach to forecasting is part of the problem. And it’s not just 1-2 week forecasts, even Seasonal, Long Term forecasts are extremely important for planning ahead. I truly hope there were numerous valuable lessons learned from this one.

My biggest beef is the skepticism the general public has. I can understand why of course with failed attempts. But people need to understand because it failed January 14th 1775, December 6th, 2018 has no bearing what is will happen February 14th, 2021. Every set up is it's own doing. People needed to prepare in case they had no power and the cold being relentless. "It's not going to be cold or ice or snow today because it didn't the last three times" is a false statement.

Also, the Physics of weather has a mind of it's own, you will never know what will happen next . . .


I'm shocked that the GFS & GFS-Para was the winners here . . .

[CentralTxAggie]

I love this weather, I can’t get enough of it. But what I can’t stand is the strain it puts on our electric infrastructure. Thinking I’ll move to Colorado at some point.

What is going on right now was WORSE that expected, they did not expect prolonged cold at all & the Power Stations to freeze up . . .

And you then have to ask yourself, where were they getting their forecasts from ??? IMO Two big issues have arisen over the years with our NWS Pro Mets/TV Mets. 1) being European model huggers, that model clearly failed forecasting this Arctic Outbreak last week. It wasn’t like this wasn’t on the table, The ICON, GFS and Canadian were laying out the potential outcomes for everyone to see. But as was discussed ad nauseam on here, the forecasts were majorly flawed and the European model temp forecasts appeared to be a big culprit. And 2) taking a more Conservative vs Aggressive approach when it comes to forecasting. Disappointing the public because you missed (on the aggressive side) on a snow forecast, cold snap, tornado outbreak, or hurricane landfall shouldn’t be a policy maker. IMO Almost always go aggressive when the extremes of Mother Nature are present in the model world! Being conservative this time around, both from ERCOT planning and forecasting, caused a disaster of Epic proportions. A very important job of professional Mets is to give enough lead time for our community, including Energy Providers, to plan ahead. Now, I’m not saying all blame is placed on the forecasting community, a bigger issue is the Energy Infrastructure makeup/policy, but the Conservative vs Aggressive approach to forecasting is part of the problem. And it’s not just 1-2 week forecasts, even Seasonal, Long Term forecasts are extremely important for planning ahead. I truly hope there were numerous valuable lessons learned from this one.

I'm reminded of the phrase, expect the best, prepare for the worst

[SouthernMet]

Unless this Low gets juiced up the closer it gets to the GOM, it looks to be rather weak. Not very impressive on radar, but that could be bc im spoiled now on winter storms.

It’s going to expand in coverage & intensity as it tracks East. Especially after 11pm tonight for central tx.

[ztshanklin]

Does the system west seem to be creeping more north than expected? Might DFW be spared outside the northern burbs?

[JDawg512]

Around here at least it's if you're sharing grid with essential service, like a hospital. I am in Windsor Park and 33 hours without power. A friend close in the newer Mueller district has had power, probably because they share with Dell Children's hospital.

Yes I get it that if you share a grid with a hospital or treatment plant your power never goes off. But I thought a rolling blackout for the rest of us meant that the power would be cutoff temporarily each hour for maybe up to an hour and then back on again for an hour as another area took its sacrifice. Instead they just flip the switch off and never rotated.

Yeah, that's why I wish they'd stop calling it "rolling". My understanding has been Austin is not allowed to get most people back online by ERCOT rules. All I know is I'm glad I have a lot of camping gear.

Yea that's pretty much it with regards to Austin. We are expecting a total loss at my work, I can't even begin to calculate what kind of cost it will take to come back from this mess.

[Iceresistance]

I love this weather, I can’t get enough of it. But what I can’t stand is the strain it puts on our electric infrastructure. Thinking I’ll move to Colorado at some point.

What is going on right now was WORSE that expected, they did not expect prolonged cold at all & the Power Stations to freeze up . . .

And you then have to ask yourself, where were they getting their forecasts from ??? IMO Two big issues have arisen over the years with our NWS Pro Mets/TV Mets. 1) being European model huggers, that model clearly failed forecasting this Arctic Outbreak last week. It wasn’t like this wasn’t on the table, The ICON, GFS and Canadian were laying out the potential outcomes for everyone to see. But as was discussed ad nauseam on here, the forecasts were majorly flawed and the European model temp forecasts appeared to be a big culprit. And 2) taking a more Conservative vs Aggressive approach when it comes to forecasting. Disappointing the public because you missed (on the aggressive side) on a snow forecast, cold snap, tornado outbreak, or hurricane landfall shouldn’t be a policy maker. IMO Almost always go aggressive when the extremes of Mother Nature are present in the model world! Being conservative this time around, both from ERCOT planning and forecasting, caused a disaster of Epic proportions. A very important job of professional Mets is to give enough lead time for our community, including Energy Providers, to plan ahead. Now, I’m not saying all blame is placed on the forecasting community, a bigger issue is the Energy Infrastructure makeup/policy, but the Conservative vs Aggressive approach to forecasting is part of the problem. And it’s not just 1-2 week forecasts, even Seasonal, Long Term forecasts are extremely important for planning ahead. I truly hope there were numerous valuable lessons learned from this one.

Another issue is trying to not cause a Panic . . .

[Iceresistance]

Snow rapidly developing just south of Amarillo, TX

[LearnedHat]

Seems that coal and natural gas plants (when was the last one constructed?) have worked fine through many single digit days and nights over the last 40 years. I wonder what changed? I also know that wind had some issues (high winds, glazed blades, etc.p)

Don't worry, Temperatures are going to be in the 60s next week with the help of Heat Miser (Wxman57) . . .

Love the cold, but there is always to a certain point where it's no longer fun anymore.

I love this weather, I can’t get enough of it. But what I can’t stand is the strain it puts on our electric infrastructure. Thinking I’ll move to Colorado at some point.

What is going on right now was WORSE that expected, they did not expect prolonged cold at all & the Power Stations to freeze up . . .

[utweather]

Around here at least it's if you're sharing grid with essential service, like a hospital. I am in Windsor Park and 33 hours without power. A friend close in the newer Mueller district has had power, probably because they share with Dell Children's hospital.

Yes I get it that if you share a grid with a hospital or treatment plant your power never goes off. But I thought a rolling blackout for the rest of us meant that the power would be cutoff temporarily each hour for maybe up to an hour and then back on again for an hour as another area took its sacrifice. Instead they just flip the switch off and never rotated.

Yeah, that's why I wish they'd stop calling it "rolling". My understanding has been Austin is not allowed to get most people back online by ERCOT rules. All I know is I'm glad I have a lot of camping gear.

Can they tap the federal emergency supply and sidestep ERCOT. There has to be a point of I'm just following orders changing to saving lives. I'm sure all of us dont mind paying extra for a saving line of energy to make it thru the next 2 days.

[Iceresistance]

Seeing news of of at least 50% of all wind turbines in Texas have froze up . . .

[Ntxw]

Seems that coal and natural gas plants (when was the last one constructed?) have worked fine through many single digit days and nights over the last 40 years. I wonder what changed? I also know that wind had some issues (high winds, glazed blades, etc.p)

I love this weather, I can’t get enough of it. But what I can’t stand is the strain it puts on our electric infrastructure. Thinking I’ll move to Colorado at some point.

What is going on right now was WORSE that expected, they did not expect prolonged cold at all & the Power Stations to freeze up . . .

It's been long duration cold snap and effected the entire state. During past cold blasts it was one or two regions with the exceptional cold (usually west Texas and panhandle) while the rest is short lived and quickly warms up. The warmer part of the state usually holds up the demand. Also nearly all of last week it was already cold and below freezing for nearly the top 2/3rds of the state before the big cold. The amount of real estate it covers. Then you send in ice/snow/wind to do the rest of the bidding.

[rwfromkansas]

Keller schools fully closed all week, no virtual. Honestly surprised they aren't even trying to do virtual at least Friday, but they are really trying to get that people will have to fix pipes, the power outages etc. I respect that. They usually are the last to decide, so pretty unusual.

[rwfromkansas]

FWD says less than an inch for me now. Glad I got 4-5 inches the other day.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The second storm is tapping into the ample gulf moisture. It should spring up very quickly.

[opticsguy]

My thoughts:

Didn't we see this extreme cold on the GFS almost 2 weeks out? "Yes, but the [almighty] Euro doesn't agree, so the GFS is wrong". I think the desire to believe the Euro over all models caused a paralysis until it was too late to prepare (under 4 days).

As for the rolling blackouts, in the 45 minutes my power is on, I'm running the furnace, microwave, whatever I need to survive the next hour without electricity, so I think if you average it out, over the day I'm using the same number of kWh. Late this morning I had the power come on and off a half dozen times in an hour and finally I pulled the breaker on my furnace and refrigerator. Maybe that's the plan; power surge after power surge until everyone's appliances break.

[bubba hotep]

18z HRRR, even a slight south shift hammers all of DFW.