opticsguy wrote:My thoughts:
Didn't we see this extreme cold on the GFS almost 2 weeks out? "Yes, but the [almighty] Euro doesn't agree, so the GFS is wrong". I think the desire to believe the Euro over all models caused a paralysis until it was too late to prepare (under 4 days).
As for the rolling blackouts, in the 45 minutes my power is on, I'm running the furnace, microwave, whatever I need to survive the next hour without electricity, so I think if you average it out, over the day I'm using the same number of kWh. Late this morning I had the power come on and off a half dozen times in an hour and finally I pulled the breaker on my furnace and refrigerator. Maybe that's the plan; power surge after power surge until everyone's appliances break.
My thoughts:
When the cold was 7 days out & the GFS was showing it, but the Euro was saying "What cold!?"
I was like "The chance of extreme cold & winter storms is now within the range of most models now, the Euro is saying that it's very unlikely while all others are going crazy with this thing"
4 days before the cold:
"The Euro is not complying with the other models right now, I must prepare for the Polar Vortex right now because nature has a mind of it's own"
24 hours after being below freezing:
"it's very cold outside now, the Euro is still saying that it's does not even exist while other models keep pushing it even closer to Houston & Dallas, at least I got ready for the cold"
Being below freezing for 4 days
"The Euro has Finally accepted that the cold will stick around for several days now, even thoguh that the GFS agreed with the long-term cold 2 days before. But the Temperatures have been busting lower than expected, and some models have noticed it too, but jeez.
2 days before the "Storm of the Century"
"The GFS-Para is going absolutely crazy with 3 feet of snow in Central Oklahoma, I'm REALLY hoping that 3 feet of snow is impossible my goodness, even though I'm saying that the GFS is more accurate comapared to the Para, the Euro is still not complying with all other models, the GFS may be the winner at THIS rate!"
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
