Texas Winter 2020-2021

[TheProfessor]

The AO has finally gone back to positive. I think this storm is a great example on how little influence the Atlantic has on Texas when compared to the Pacific. In this case the AO and NAO both trending positive the last week or so is what kept the cold from bleeding east (remember that SE Georgia snow storm? lol) which allowed the whole state of Texas to feel winter. Models seem to want to do a brief dip in the AO and then another positive trend. What's more important for Texas is that the PNA is expected to go negative again, which is common for La Nina. If we do combine a -PNA with a +AO and +NAO, then expect a severe weather outbreak somewhere in the U.S. The more positive the NAO is and the more negative the PNA is, the more likely we see the south east ridge further west where severe weather could occur in Texas.

[gboudx]

Upper level storm system responsible for the freezing rain over portions of SE TX this morning is exiting to the east

Winter Weather Advisory will be in effect for tonight into Thursday for some additional light precipitation

Hard Freeze Watch has been issued for Thursday night and Friday morning

Upper level disturbance responsible for the overnight and morning rain and freezing rain over the area is moving off to the NE with rain ending. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 30’s over many areas ending the freezing rain and resulting in a slow melting of accumulations of ice. Temperatures may rise a few additional degrees today, before falling below freezing again this evening north of I-10. Ice will be slow to melt this afternoon with temperatures only in the mid to upper 30’s and lack of solar insolation.

Tonight an upper level disturbance along and ahead of an arctic frontal boundary may result in a band of light sleet and snow that spreads across the area from WNW to ESE. It is unclear what areas could be impacted by this feature, but the general model agreement is that precipitation and amounts will be light. With that said, and with low temperatures below freezing, a few additional icy bridges and overpasses will be possible. Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 30’s again Thursday afternoon as skies clear.

Friday Morning:
With clear skies and light winds, a hard freeze is increasing likely over the area with temperatures falling into the upper 10’s north of HWY 105 and low to mid 20’s across the rest of the area. Temperatures are not expected to be as cold as early this week, nor the extreme cold last as long which should mitigate additional damage to infrastructure. However, pipes should be protected as temperatures generally below 25 degrees can cause concerns for pipes to break.

Much warmer conditions can be expected this weekend as this historic arctic outbreak modifies and the arctic high pressure shifts to the east allowing onshore flow of warmer air off the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist

[InfernoFlameCat]

The AO has finally gone back to positive. I think this storm is a great example on how little influence the Atlantic has on Texas when compared to the Pacific. In this case the AO and NAO both trending positive the last week or so is what kept the cold from bleeding east (remember that SE Georgia snow storm? lol) which allowed the whole state of Texas to feel winter. Models seem to want to do a brief dip in the AO and then another positive trend. What's more important for Texas is that the PNA is expected to go negative again, which is common for La Nina. If we do combine a -PNA with a +AO and +NAO, then expect a severe weather outbreak somewhere in the U.S. The more positive the NAO is and the more negative the PNA is, the more likely we see the south east ridge further west where severe weather could occur in Texas.

Yes because that strengthens the contrast in temperature between fronts which produces storms correct?

[Brent]

Having power issues here for the first time so far seems to be close to the 15 minute intervals

For the 1st time? Interesting as you and I are both on Farmer's Electric. We've had rolling blackouts since Sunday night. But I just read on Farmer's website that they are spreading the power outage love around to more customers. Maybe this includes you. Welcome to the party!

https://farmerselectric.coop/winter-wea ... cy-update/

yup twice 15 minutes but its been almost 2 hours since the last one. We are really close to the fire station though which I think has helped us maybe?

I know I took a couple drives in Wylie Monday and Tuesday and you could see some places going towards 544 were clearly out

[TheProfessor]

The AO has finally gone back to positive. I think this storm is a great example on how little influence the Atlantic has on Texas when compared to the Pacific. In this case the AO and NAO both trending positive the last week or so is what kept the cold from bleeding east (remember that SE Georgia snow storm? lol) which allowed the whole state of Texas to feel winter. Models seem to want to do a brief dip in the AO and then another positive trend. What's more important for Texas is that the PNA is expected to go negative again, which is common for La Nina. If we do combine a -PNA with a +AO and +NAO, then expect a severe weather outbreak somewhere in the U.S. The more positive the NAO is and the more negative the PNA is, the more likely we see the south east ridge further west where severe weather could occur in Texas.

Yes because that strengthens the contrast in temperature between fronts which produces storms correct?

Yes, when the southeast ridge flexes, it sets up a sharp temperature gradient, storms will ride along this gradient and use it as fuel so to speak. Warm Air Advection also pumps up the ridge out ahead of the storm and this can create severe ice storms like what happened in parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania. That's not all to it when it comes to a strength of a storm as you need the jet streams to be in phase as well. The northern branch wasn't in phase with the southern branch and had we seen that phase we probably would have seen a bomb cyclone with blizzard warnings from Waco to Indianapolis and then back west to Chicago down to Wichita Falls.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Well it’s official this storm has done more damage to my family’s home than Ike did. A pipe exploded and flooded the garage...

Power & cellular internet is intermittent...worst stretch without power was definitely Monday night that was brutal. Fish are doing fine though...getting the biggest tank you can afford is really a lifesaver for your fish in situations like this thanks to thermal inertia of the water.

I’m hoping after this people will take winter storms as seriously as hurricanes. They don’t look as scary but clearly they can do comparable damage.

...much to worry about the future, nature of Texas’ power grid and how to improve, but I kind of don’t understand the subject well enough to have anything useful to add to the discussion.

P.S. Whoever got graupel I am jealous. I love my dipping dots from the sky.

[funster]

Having power issues here for the first time so far seems to be close to the 15 minute intervals

For the 1st time? Interesting as you and I are both on Farmer's Electric. We've had rolling blackouts since Sunday night. But I just read on Farmer's website that they are spreading the power outage love around to more customers. Maybe this includes you. Welcome to the party!

https://farmerselectric.coop/winter-wea ... cy-update/

yup twice 15 minutes but its been almost 2 hours since the last one. We are really close to the fire station though which I think has helped us maybe?

I know I took a couple drives in Wylie Monday and Tuesday and you could see some places going towards 544 were clearly out

The homes on the other side of the street from us used to be free of power outages during the rolling blackouts but that seems to have changed yesterday. They are on a fire station grid also. The same homes were getting hit over and over so it seems you are being pulled into the outages despite being on a fire station grid? Or maybe they found a way to separate the fire stations.

[HockeyTx82]

So I was stopped by a neighbor who said their daughter was getting charge $9 per Kwh. I called Relaint and they made it sound that if you have a month to month with any provider you could be getting a rather large bill perhaps, assuming you have power. Anyone else hear this? Is that even legal? I know month to month can fluctuate, but a 1000 KWh would be astronomical at that price.

It appears that in my case I'm under a yearly contract and locked in.

Just asking the group here.

[funster]

Frustrated peeps making it worse...

 https://twitter.com/austinenergy/status/1362124236870082563

[TropicalTundra]

There is still some light snow falling right now. It’s 28F. 2 PM.

[Ntxw]

So I was stopped by a neighbor who said their daughter was getting charge $9 per Kwh. I called Relaint and they made it sound that if you have a month to month with any provider you could be getting a rather large bill perhaps, assuming you have power. Anyone else hear this? Is that even legal? I know month to month can fluctuate, but a 1000 KWh would be astronomical at that price.

It appears that in my case I'm under a yearly contract and locked in.

Just asking the group here.

While I can see them trying to do that with the price flux due to supply/demand, in the real world torches and pitchforks would be at their door from many Texans.

[Quixotic]

Don't give up on some sneaky snow over the next 48 hrs. I can think of at least 3 times since 2011 that we got snow when there was no snow in the forecast. Never give up when cold air is in place and we have an active Pacific.

You have learned much about Texas weather!

[JDawg512]

So correct me if I'm wrong but as I understand it, the last round looks to be more to the south of Austin? At this point I'd like not to see anymore winter precipitation...

[Quixotic]

So I was stopped by a neighbor who said their daughter was getting charge $9 per Kwh. I called Relaint and they made it sound that if you have a month to month with any provider you could be getting a rather large bill perhaps, assuming you have power. Anyone else hear this? Is that even legal? I know month to month can fluctuate, but a 1000 KWh would be astronomical at that price.

It appears that in my case I'm under a yearly contract and locked in.

Just asking the group here.

Have to check your plan. The devil is in the details. I pay going rate, month to month.

[gboudx]

So I was stopped by a neighbor who said their daughter was getting charge $9 per Kwh. I called Relaint and they made it sound that if you have a month to month with any provider you could be getting a rather large bill perhaps, assuming you have power. Anyone else hear this? Is that even legal? I know month to month can fluctuate, but a 1000 KWh would be astronomical at that price.

It appears that in my case I'm under a yearly contract and locked in.

Just asking the group here.

I sent an email contact form to our electric provider, Farmer's Electric Coop about this. This is the reply I received:

Thanks for reaching out about this. We are on something to post to our website at https://farmerselectric.coop/winter-wea ... cy-update/ about this. You are right that $9/kWh power is HIGH. I think this may apply more to the retail energy providers in Texas. Farmers believes in long term stable pricing. We’ve been around for a long time and have seen the impact of events like this on energy bills. Farmers EC purchases a mix of long-term and short-term energy. The result is that even in unprecedented times such as these, Farmers members won’t suffer under the burden of rates which skyrocket because of market turmoil.

I hope this helps any others with Farmers on here.

[funster]

Wow. Serious water issues in Austin.

 https://twitter.com/AutulloAAS/status/1362130348814000130

[HockeyTx82]

So I was stopped by a neighbor who said their daughter was getting charge $9 per Kwh. I called Relaint and they made it sound that if you have a month to month with any provider you could be getting a rather large bill perhaps, assuming you have power. Anyone else hear this? Is that even legal? I know month to month can fluctuate, but a 1000 KWh would be astronomical at that price.

It appears that in my case I'm under a yearly contract and locked in.

Just asking the group here.

I sent an email contact form to our electric provider, Farmer's Electric Coop about this. This is the reply I received:

Thanks for reaching out about this. We are on something to post to our website at https://farmerselectric.coop/winter-wea ... cy-update/ about this. You are right that $9/kWh power is HIGH. I think this may apply more to the retail energy providers in Texas. Farmers believes in long term stable pricing. We’ve been around for a long time and have seen the impact of events like this on energy bills. Farmers EC purchases a mix of long-term and short-term energy. The result is that even in unprecedented times such as these, Farmers members won’t suffer under the burden of rates which skyrocket because of market turmoil.

I hope this helps any others with Farmers on here.

So there is something to it, I guess it depends on the provider and if they are going to pass it along to consumers. Yikes!!!

[gboudx]

So there is something to it, I guess it depends on the provider and if they are going to pass it along to consumers. Yikes!!!

Maybe so. But with Gov Abbott calling for an investigation, and going along with what Ntxw posted, it would be a bad PR move for companies to do this. Oh, and we're in a pandemic too with lots of people's financial situations impacted. It wouldn't be a good look at all.

[HockeyTx82]

So there is something to it, I guess it depends on the provider and if they are going to pass it along to consumers. Yikes!!!

Maybe so. But with Gov Abbott calling for an investigation, and going along with what Ntxw posted, it would be a bad PR move for companies to do this. Oh, and we're in a pandemic too with lots of people's financial situations impacted. It wouldn't be a good look at all.

Yup, I agree. It caught me off guard when I heard it at first. Just passing it along.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

We had a nice glaze of frozen rain overnight here in Corpus which was more than they predicted. They had us getting some freezing drizzle at most, but this morning all the trees in my neighborhood had a heavy coat of ice on them. .

All my tropical vegetation is gone. Palm trees of all varieties have taken a hit and some will not survive.

In the coming days this will be the scene for many. It's been nearly 3 decades since the last hard killing freeze and we have tried to push flora that are not native. Well, gone they will be.

We were probably overdue such event by 10 or so years. Yea we've had the overnight type events where it would warm in the afternoon enough for the plants to take in some heat before the temps fell like a rock when the sun went down. And of course we had our snow events, but the moisture helped insulate the plants to where some simple pruning helped bring the plants back to life. Landscapers and Plumbers will be making some good money the next few months for sure.