Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

Barring some kind of monstrous heat wave this week, February for DFW is 34.6F so far for the monthly average. It is going to be the first sub 40F month since December 2000. I like to use that as a metric for an exceptionally cold month. Even the cold winters of 09-10 and 13-14 did not feature such a month.

Of modern history here are the few months that have achieved such a status. Some elite winters. One subtle common theme, except for the late 70s..they are more likely to occur in a...La Nina than El Nino. Often accompanied by a severe -EPO or -AO.

February 2021...?

December 2000
December 1989
January 1985
January 1984
December 1983
January 1979
February 1978
January 1978 <- 33.8 (record coldest month for DFW)
January 1977
January 1963
January 1962
January 1949
January 1940
January 1930
February 1929
January 1918
December 1914
December 1909
February 1905
January 1905
February 1899

One thing is certain, all of the 0F (there are only 5 including this year) or lower readings have occurred on years exclusive to this list.

Edit: 2021 is also joins 1899, 1918, and 1989 with 2 top 10 lowest temperature readings on record. -2F and 4F.

This will be an elite month when it comes to cold but the Southern Plains were already busting a lot of winter outlooks before this cold snap put the nail in the coffin of the warm & dry Southern Plains winter forecast.

[bubba hotep]

[gpsnowman]

https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021022112/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Nice. Any cold with all that liquid?

[gpsnowman]

A post from Larry Cosgrove two days ago.

Larry Cosgrove
Chief Meteorologist,WEATHERAmerica
2d

At this point, the last thing anyone in Oklahoma wants to see is chances for cold, snow, and ice.

That said, those elements are back in the forecast after a short break early next week. Most of the numerical models came in colder in the 6- 10 day period, as Arctic air rebuilds through Canada and finds a way southward into the U.S. behind two disturbances moving along the middle latitudes in the westerlies.

Close scrutiny reveals that the third and fourth storms in the sequence (Aleutian Islands and Mongolia) are stronger, and likely to tap into energy/moisture associated with tropical forcing (like the tropical cyclone near the Philippines). One such disturbance will have to detour through the Intermountain Region next Friday, move along the southern rim of much colder air into central Texas. In the process, two of the predictive schemes have an important ice and snow event from N TX into OK and AR.

If it verifies, that feature could carry its frozen precipitation into the Ohio Valley and Cumberland Plateau Feb 26-28. And draw the colder air back down into the Gulf Coast, eliminating a short warm-up there.

As stated before, it will take a while to break out of the grip of winter. Do not even attempt to mention that groundhog in Pennsylvania!

[Portastorm]

Phenomenal work by TheAustinMan on the previous page with his summary of this epic week of winter weather!

I'm pleased to report that the Portastorm Weather Center has water for the first time in five days. I have a greater sense of appreciation for modern water/wastewater supply and a bigger heart for those in our world who don't have it. Like most of you, I think it's going to take a while for me to digest scope and impact of the incredible, amazing, insert-your-favorite-adjective-here week we have lived through. As I have told a few others, I wouldn't have dreamt that it would be a week of extreme winter weather (and not a Gulf hurricane, tornado, or massive flood) that would cause a disaster in Austin and collapse our infrastructure.

It's 74 degrees on February 21st and I'm just fine with that.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS model is showing signs of consistancy of the storm that is coming in the beginning of March that it's going to be a Snowstorm like it was the week before in Oklahoma!

[aggiecutter]

Official snow fall tallies from the NWS Shreveport for NE Texas and SW Arkansas. Even with these historic snowfall totals and -1 degree temps on Tuesday morning, there were very few power issues in the NE Texas and SW Arkansas vicinity.

https://txktoday.com/featured-2/weather ... s-of-snow/

[Brent]

Sure why not this is the day we move to the Spring thread

[somethingfunny]

Sure why not this is the day we move to the Spring thread

https://i.ibb.co/HCXjGRD/gfs-asnow-scus-32.png

I'm sure it'll verify this time!

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers/status/1363593971436572675

[gpsnowman]

Sure why not this is the day we move to the Spring thread

https://i.ibb.co/HCXjGRD/gfs-asnow-scus-32.png

I'm sure it'll verify this time!

The GFS is on fire!!

[InfernoFlameCat]

The GFS model is showing signs of consistancy of the storm that is coming in the beginning of March that it's going to be a Snowstorm like it was the week before in Oklahoma!

Texans be like AAAAAAAAAAARGH!

[Iceresistance]

The GFS model is showing signs of consistancy of the storm that is coming in the beginning of March that it's going to be a Snowstorm like it was the week before in Oklahoma!

Texans be like AAAAAAAAAAARGH!

Well, they DON'T want any more snow, the PV & the storms exausted them to the point where they don't want more snow so they can recover faster . . .
And also, the GFS model is having consistency issues, I'm hoping it stays like that so I don't have any more snow . . . I'm done with snow this year.

[funster]

Model runs now with PTSD

[Iceresistance]

Model runs now with PTSD

What do you mean?

[Iceresistance]

It's going to be in the 70s tomorrow across Oklahoma, the temperature difference 1 week before compared to now is crazy!

[aggiecutter]

Looks like the first major severe weather outbreak could occur around the March 6th timeframe.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the first major severe weather outbreak could occur around the March 6th timeframe.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Was thinking that too, based off of the 12z gfs. That’s a straight up bowling ball rolling through the SW

[weatherdude1108]

This is slightly off-topic, but related to the Winter weather. I heard a story on NPR this morning about a suburban Dallas family whose electric bill was $250 last month. This month, they said it's around $10,000!

Any of you Dallas peeps in a similar predicament? We have a coop and a fixed rate down here. Just curious. Sounds insane! They said those that had power the whole time are having skyrocketing bills.

[Iceresistance]

Looks like the first major severe weather outbreak could occur around the March 6th timeframe.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Was thinking that too, based off of the 12z gfs. That’s a straight up bowling ball rolling through the SW

A similar severe weather outbreak took place in Oklahoma in March 2019, there were several waves of storms (One of them was showing a well-defined hook on the radar), but no tornadoes in Central Oklahoma, & the reason why is because there was no deep moisture for the tornado development on that setup compared to the 3 prime months for tornadoes (April, May & June)