Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[ElectricStorm]

I know it's over a week out, but I'm keeping an eye on the March 9-10 timeframe. Both GFS and Euro agree on a system coming through the plains that could support some severe weather. The fact that they both agree is the big thing for me this far out.

[cheezyWXguy]

I know it's over a week out, but I'm keeping an eye on the March 9-10 timeframe. Both GFS and Euro agree on a system coming through the plains that could support some severe weather. The fact that they both agree is the big thing for me this far out.

Is the euro also showing that huge ejection NE with this system that the gfs shows? Looks almost like a late season pattern to me

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS showing 2 potental storms late next week



Crazy amount of shear (Wind Barbs), but the z500 Vort is too low for any organized severe weather across the Southern Plains . . . (And when it gets REALLY high, its too dry for anything to form . . .)

[Iceresistance]

Midnight GFS has multiple storms bringing chances of severe weather



z500 Vort is trending stronger . . .



Likely the craziest Model Soundings I've ever seen in March from the GFS

GFS 0z +240 hours, sounding near Uvalde, TX



Likely a cap bust with this one & too much dryness

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS showed several potent storms next week & the week after

[Iceresistance]

Marginal risk for NW Oklahoma, extreme SW part of Southern Kansas & Panhandle Texas Tomorrow for Quarter Sized hail

[ElectricStorm]

So March 10 now has my full attention. Both Euro and GFS are in agreement that we could be dealing with a severe event. Dews look decent for a March system so we'll see how this goes leading up to next Wednesday. Of course, it's still a week out so this could/will change but I certainly will be watching it.
Euro


GFS


GFSv16 has the dryline moving through a day later on 3/11


0z Euro is running right now so we'll see if it still agrees. There appears to be second system to watch a few days after the 3/10 system. That one also needs to be watched. Again it's still a ways out but the models have agreed on this system coming through for several days now so it will be interesting for sure.

Also, the CAPE shown on all the models is very unimpressive right now so I won't even bother trying to post them but just like everything else, that could change. I'll wait to post the shear maps until we get a bit closer. Not expecting some type of major severe outbreak or anything but it could be an interesting early-season event.

[ElectricStorm]

Marginal risk for hail has been expanded slightly for Thurs 3/4.

[Iceresistance]

So March 10 now has my full attention. Both Euro and GFS are in agreement that we could be dealing with a severe event. Dews look decent for a March system so we'll see how this goes leading up to next Wednesday. Of course, it's still a week out so this could/will change but I certainly will be watching it.
Euro
https://i.imgur.com/r57HI9C.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/wpKJIju.png

GFSv16 has the dryline moving through a day later on 3/11
https://i.imgur.com/AZnx8FT.png

0z Euro is running right now so we'll see if it still agrees. There appears to be second system to watch a few days after the 3/10 system. That one also needs to be watched. Again it's still a ways out but the models have agreed on this system coming through for several days now so it will be interesting for sure.

Also, the CAPE shown on all the models is very unimpressive right now so I won't even bother trying to post them but just like everything else, that could change. I'll wait to post the shear maps until we get a bit closer. Not expecting some type of major severe outbreak or anything but it could be an interesting early-season event.

Also note that the Supercell Composite is also a useful tool on how unstable the atmosphere is . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

I cannot WAIT for this severe season to kick into high gear!

[Iceresistance]

Sounding near Tecumseh, OK at +162 hours on the 6z GFS . . .



The anount of dryness could prevent any supercells from forming on the Dry line/Cold front . . .

[ElectricStorm]

So March 10 now has my full attention. Both Euro and GFS are in agreement that we could be dealing with a severe event. Dews look decent for a March system so we'll see how this goes leading up to next Wednesday. Of course, it's still a week out so this could/will change but I certainly will be watching it.
Euro
https://i.imgur.com/r57HI9C.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/wpKJIju.png

GFSv16 has the dryline moving through a day later on 3/11
https://i.imgur.com/AZnx8FT.png

0z Euro is running right now so we'll see if it still agrees. There appears to be second system to watch a few days after the 3/10 system. That one also needs to be watched. Again it's still a ways out but the models have agreed on this system coming through for several days now so it will be interesting for sure.

Also, the CAPE shown on all the models is very unimpressive right now so I won't even bother trying to post them but just like everything else, that could change. I'll wait to post the shear maps until we get a bit closer. Not expecting some type of major severe outbreak or anything but it could be an interesting early-season event.

Also note that the Supercell Composite is also a useful tool on how unstable the atmosphere is . . .

Yeah I didn't mention it but its similar to the CAPE...not impressive

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Ensembles on Supercell Composite

[ElectricStorm]

12z GEFS Ensembles on Supercell Composite

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/12Z-20210304_GEFSSGP_con_scpens-132-276-100-75.gif

Members 2 and 9 think it's May already lol

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS

Ensemble Supercell Composite


Ensemble QPF

[Iceresistance]

0z GEFS has Mean Supercell Composite of a '2' in NW Oklahoma around March 10th, this may be the first outbreak in the Southern Plains if this keeps up . . .

6z GEFS is the same . . .

6z Ensemble Supercell Composite

[Iceresistance]

Marginal Risk for Quarter Sized Hail & 65 mph winds are expected today in SE Texas, including Houston

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS Ensemble Supercell Composite

[ElectricStorm]

Now it's March 11 that has my attention. SPC already mentioning NE OK for next Thursday...

[Iceresistance]

+246 hours 18z GEFS

(LOOK AT MEMBER #6! )