Texas Spring 2021
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
12z Euro ensemble showing the kind of dam burst 500 mb pattern that can lead to major cold out break, Cold air bleeds south for a time, then upper feature comes out of the west and moved across southern Canada, Cold charges south after. Beware Ides of March for flip to winter
@BigJoeBastardi
12z Euro ensemble showing the kind of dam burst 500 mb pattern that can lead to major cold out break, Cold air bleeds south for a time, then upper feature comes out of the west and moved across southern Canada, Cold charges south after. Beware Ides of March for flip to winter
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
aggiecutter wrote:Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
12z Euro ensemble showing the kind of dam burst 500 mb pattern that can lead to major cold out break, Cold air bleeds south for a time, then upper feature comes out of the west and moved across southern Canada, Cold charges south after. Beware Ides of March for flip to winter
[url]https://i.ibb.co/BwS81GX/EURO.png [/url]
Oh no, Jack Frost is back & winter is not giving up yet . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Not saying I agree with JB but this year reminds me of 89 and we had two outbreaks with wintry weather: one in February and one in March. The March one was a shocker.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Potental Severe Weather is very possible March 10th-15th
6z GEFS
6z GEFS
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Marginal Risk in SE Texas (Including Houston) for Quarter Sized Hail & 65 mph wind gusts today . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.
Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas
Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.
Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021030500/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png
https://i.gifer.com/4jtL.gif
Euro:
Me: NOT AGAIN!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Iceresistance wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.
Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021030500/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png
https://i.gifer.com/4jtL.gif
Euro:
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png
Me: NOT AGAIN!
Depending on timing, that setup is pretty close to a classic Southern Plains springtime winter storm. Start with storms and heavy rain and then transition to heavy wet snow.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
bubba hotep wrote:Iceresistance wrote:bubba hotep wrote:00z Euro is close to a major Texas winter storm at D10.
Ridge pushing into WCAN dumping cold south with a cutoff moving into Texas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2021030500/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png
https://i.gifer.com/4jtL.gif
Euro:
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png
Me: NOT AGAIN!
Depending on timing, that setup is pretty close to a classic Southern Plains springtime winter storm. Start with storms and heavy rain and then transition to heavy wet snow.
I won’t hold my breath on the snow potential, but I am intrigued by the severe potential. 12z GFS lacks instability, but wind profiles are notable.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
12z GFS total QPF
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi3
Establishing Twitter timeline, like Texas outbreak so when someone comes out and says 70s followed by major return to winter, is climate change, trap is set Maybe tho some will start looking now, so they don't weaponize this if I'm right. anyway, 12z Week 2 looks like Feb temps
@BigJoeBastardi3
Establishing Twitter timeline, like Texas outbreak so when someone comes out and says 70s followed by major return to winter, is climate change, trap is set Maybe tho some will start looking now, so they don't weaponize this if I'm right. anyway, 12z Week 2 looks like Feb temps
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Oh no . . . NOT AGAIN!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Quixotic wrote:Not saying I agree with JB but this year reminds me of 89 and we had two outbreaks with wintry weather: one in February and one in March. The March one was a shocker.
Yup, was thinking about that after his tweet. We’ve had several big March events up here along the Red River over the years, so I’m not prepared to fully write off winter just yet.
Also, I’ve been thinking about the December 1989 cold air invasion later that same year. I’ve already been wondering what we might see next winter.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2021, back to Winter?
I thought that Winter was over!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Spring 2021, back to Winter?
The real irony is that's the day I'm moving to Tulsa
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Texas Snowman wrote:Quixotic wrote:Not saying I agree with JB but this year reminds me of 89 and we had two outbreaks with wintry weather: one in February and one in March. The March one was a shocker.
Yup, was thinking about that after his tweet. We’ve had several big March events up here along the Red River over the years, so I’m not prepared to fully write off winter just yet.
Also, I’ve been thinking about the December 1989 cold air invasion later that same year. I’ve already been wondering what we might see next winter.
I hope not. 89-90 was pretty much snowless. That bout of cold though.
The biggest positive out of this winter is the high latitude blocking making an appearance right on target as we leave solar minimum. I am very upbeat for the next 5-6 winters that we will have shots.....until nothing happens next winter.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
aggiecutter wrote:Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi3
Establishing Twitter timeline, like Texas outbreak so when someone comes out and says 70s followed by major return to winter, is climate change, trap is set Maybe tho some will start looking now, so they don't weaponize this if I'm right. anyway, 12z Week 2 looks like Feb temps
[url]https://i.ibb.co/N30jfkj/Para.png [/url]
Maybe I’m even more tired than I thought, but I’m having trouble making sense of this tweet. Something about climate change and cold, I guess
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Looks like a cold snap for mid March. EPO flow is going to help deliver some kind of air mass coming out of Siberia. Chilly for March standards.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
OMG, what is with Member #6 on the 18z GEFS??? (246 hours)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Iceresistance wrote:OMG, what is with Member #6 on the 18z GEFS??? (246 hours)
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_con_scpens_246.png
Assuming you actually got storms to form on member 6 and there wasn't some sort of mega cap, then yeah that would be rough.
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