SIO: HABANA - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

[mrbagyo]

Cyclone Habana
March 5, 2021
MODIS - Terra Satellite

[kevin]

From a visual standpoint, Habana has to be one of the most beautiful storms I've seen in quite a while. Luckily it's also far removed any populated areas or land in general (as far as I'm aware, but please correct me if I'm wrong) so in that sense it's better for an OTS storm to be such an overachiever rather than a storm headed for a population center. I guess I have a weakness for those long curls around storms, I found Epsilon last year also quite a stunning storm for the same reason.

[aspen]

Habana’s eye has remained rather cloudy for most of the day, and it has yet to clear again. I think there might be some kind of eyewall meld again. Microwave imagery was showing a close outer eyewall, but it was also showing a weaker east side.

[WAcyclone]

At 1255 UTC on the 6th, another SMAP estimate for Habana came in at 124.2 kt. This is quite impressive for a weakening storm approx. 6 hours past its peak at ~0600 UTC.

[aspen]

There’s pretty much unanimous agreement that Habana will recover and re-intensify into a major starting within the next 24-36 hours or so.

[aspen]

Habana is starting to RI again, with a very well defined eyewall. However, it seems that an EWRC could start up again very soon due to all of those outer bands.

[aspen]

Round 2

[Fancy1001]

I'm betting habana reaches category 5 within the next 48-52 hours.

[aspen]

Microwave imagery reveals a comma structure — Habana has a well-defined eyewall that a large outer band is connected to, but so far, that band has not wrapped around into an outer eyewall. As long as this remains to be the case, Habana should undergo quite an impressive phase of RI.

[Subtrop]

JTWC: T7.0

TPXS11 PGTW 100859

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 17.52S

D. 76.40E

E. TWO/MET8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES

[aspen]

Wow, yet another incredible phase of RI.

[cycloneye]

ZCZC 367
WTIO30 FMEE 101230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)
2.A POSITION 2021/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 76.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55
24H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
36H: 2021/03/12 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
48H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
60H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
72H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/14 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 95
120H: 2021/03/15 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 55
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0
THE HABANA'S EYE PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE : A CI OF 7.0 WITH AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 125KT AND A CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHICH REMAINS
SMALL WITH A RADIUS OF 150KM. HOWEVER, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE
INTENSITY OF HABANA IS OVERESTIMATED BY THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. INDEED,
AS SHOWN BY THE MICROWAVE DATA OF AMSR2 FROM 0817UTC, A SECOND WIND
MAXIMUM APPEARS IN THE LOW LAYERS, ENCLOSING THE FIRST RING WHICH
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN PART. AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) IS IN PROGRESS, THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOON
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN WIND EXTENSIONS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS AT THE TIME OF THE AMSR2 DATA BEING 6.5-, WE
CAN ESTIMATE THAT THE CURRENT WINDS ARE RATHER AROUND 110KT, DEFINING
HABANA AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SOME CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND MAINLY AT THE END OF THE
TRACK. HABANA IS HEADING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. FROM TOMORROW, MOST MODELS
SUGGEST A SOUTH-WESTERLY DIP TOWARDS A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. HABANA
SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, AS IT WEAKENS,
HABANA SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS MOTION TO START A MORE ERRATIC MOTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERE OPPOSING FLOWS. THE MAIN
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BEGINNING OF THE TRACK BUT A
DISPERSION STILL PERSISTS FROM SATURDAY ON THE TIMING OF THE TURN AND
THE EVACUATION OR NOT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES. THE PRESENT
RSMC FORECAST OPTS FOR AN ERRATIC TRACK AROUND 20S DURING THE FILLING
OF HABANA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ALL THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT TO ALLOW HABANA TO CONTINUE ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION. IN THE
SHORT TERM, IT IS RATHER THE RECENTLY STARTED ERC THAT MAY LIMIT OR
EVEN TEMPORARILY REVERSE THIS TREND. ONCE THE ERC IS OVER, HABANA
SHOULD AGAIN EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS AND THEN MORE MARKEDLY ON SUNDAY, AN
INCREASE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR COULD START TO BRING DRY AIR
NEAR THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKEN HABANA UNTIL THE THRESHOLD OF
DEPRESSION FILLING UP, CLOSES BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, NOT ALL MODELS
AGREE ON THE PRESENCE OF THE SATURDAY SHEAR, WHICH MAY OCCUR LATER.
THERE IS THEREFORE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ON THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION, EITHER ON SHORT TIME SCALES RELATED TO THE ERC OR ON
LONGER TIME SCALES RELATED TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSION.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

If this makes it to Cat 5 it will be the 4th Cat 5 of the SHEM season and 3rd of 2021. 2020 had 4 the entire year...

[aspen]

It’s very clear on IR that Habana is starting another EWRC. I wonder if it’ll still have time to intensify a third time.

[aspen]

The previous microwave pass showed a small eyewall with a large outer eyewall forming. Now, there’s just a medium eyewall. Perhaps there’s been an eyewall meld? Hopefully a more high definition pass in the next few hours can reveal what’s going on.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The previous microwave pass showed a small eyewall with a large outer eyewall forming. Now, there’s just a medium eyewall. Perhaps there’s been an eyewall meld? Hopefully a more high definition pass in the next few hours can reveal what’s going on.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021sh24/amsusr89/2021sh24_amsusr89_202103101255.gif

Habana just won't go away.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Go Habana Go!!! What a storm. I hope to see a satellite timelapse of it.

[aspen]

In the middle of an EWRC.

[Subtrop]

Max: 135kt

24S HABANA 210310 0600 17.5S 76.7E SHEM 115 948
24S HABANA 210310 1200 17.5S 76.0E SHEM 135 928
24S HABANA 210310 1800 17.4S 75.4E SHEM 130 933