FireRat's take on 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season... Using the Chinese Zodiac:
Sup guys, was thinking of making a separate thread for 2021 like I did for 2020 using the Chinese Zodiac lol, but figured I'd give a quick preview here on my thinking.
Since this zodiac is actually 12 year (and 60 year cycles, when we take the 5 elements into account), the 2021 season may have things in common with the following seasons based on this alone...
2009, 1997, 1985, 1973, 1961, 1949, 1937, 1925, 1913, 1901, 1889, 1877 and so on.
The sixty year cycle (Metal Ox year) puts 2021 alongside 1961, 1901, 1841 and 1781. The biggest year here would be 1961, the year of Hurricane Carla.
Most of the other 'years of the Ox' like 2009, 1997 and 1925 were quite slow. This makes me think that 2021 could end up being slower than many are anticipating, and this could be welcome news based on this esoteric 'crystal ball' method.
I might go with 12 to 15 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 2-3 majors.... somewhat average if not just a little below the new 1991 - 2020 average. A possible similarity to 1961 and the sheer numbers being predicted by the experts skews my expectations a bit upwards.
This doesn't rule out a monster hurricane or severe landfall though. Some of the Ox Years like 1985, 1961 and 1949 featured strong landfalls.
Most likely locations to be struck by a significant, Cat 2+ hurricane in 2021 based on past Ox years would be the MS to Central FL Gulf Coast, the Texas Coast, and to a lower extent Central America and perhaps NC which has been brushed on several of those years.South Florida in particular, has only been struck twice during an Ox year since record keeping began, one in 1865 and one in 1949. The Bahamas were similarly lucky. The Greater Antilles and Lesser Antilles were even luckier with few, if any, strong landfalls during this year cycle.
In 2021 we could see a Cat 2+ hurricane or two strike along the Gulf Coast, most likely near where Carla came ashore in 1961 and also between MS and FL about where Danny came ashore in 1997. North Carolina's outer banks might also get a brush or two.
Central America could see a hurricane later in the season, especially Yucatan south to Honduras.
The year of the Ox is one of the most uneventful ones in the Atlantic historically, so my 2 cents is that the season will be slower than anticipated and hopefully this is good news after such a disastrous 2020 season.
If you're in the West Pacific however, oh boy!
Big difference right there, 2021 could be a huuuge season, much like 2009 and 1997.