Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ok so this will set the pattern for repeated outbreaks soon. Good shot at a strong isolated storm. I am afraid we may see an EF3+ storm shortly. Mark my words.

[ElectricStorm]

I think Saturday has the most potential... Mainly in Western OK, maybe TX panhandle. Squall line moving east from there Sat night/Sun morning.

[ElectricStorm]

Updated outlook for Thursday. Not expecting much but you never know. I do think that this will likely be the least active day during this sequence.

[Iceresistance]

Updated in Include NW Oklahoma . . .

[cheezyWXguy]

Ok so this will set the pattern for repeated outbreaks soon. Good shot at a strong isolated storm. I am afraid we may see an EF3+ storm shortly. Mark my words.

I agree. This event and the next one on Tuesday look a bit marginal, but the gfs is starting to clue into the type of pattern that sets up weekly events. The following Tuesday 3/23 looks like it could hold a more notable event in the southern plains.

[Iceresistance]

Ok so this will set the pattern for repeated outbreaks soon. Good shot at a strong isolated storm. I am afraid we may see an EF3+ storm shortly. Mark my words.

I agree. This event and the next one on Tuesday look a bit marginal, but the gfs is starting to clue into the type of pattern that sets up weekly events. The following Tuesday 3/23 looks like it could hold a more notable event in the southern plains.

I found this Sounding in NW Oklahoma on the 6z GFS on the day you are talking about . . .



(OMG, 4.5 inch Hail from a Dodge City Sounding!)

[cheezyWXguy]

Ok so this will set the pattern for repeated outbreaks soon. Good shot at a strong isolated storm. I am afraid we may see an EF3+ storm shortly. Mark my words.

I agree. This event and the next one on Tuesday look a bit marginal, but the gfs is starting to clue into the type of pattern that sets up weekly events. The following Tuesday 3/23 looks like it could hold a more notable event in the southern plains.

I found this Sounding in NW Oklahoma on the 6z GFS on the day you are talking about . . .

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031106_GFS_306_36.54-98.08_severe_ml.png

(OMG, 4.5 inch Hail from a Dodge City Sounding!)

Yeah if this were to hold true, it should be the first event of the season where instability is not lacking on a widespread scale. Combine that with the wind profiles and it’s not surprising why that blue bar in the bottom right panel is creeping up into range of stronger tornadoes.

Still so much time to iron this out though. Assuming the system maintains in future runs, one area of bust potential is timing. As with this Saturday’s event, most of north Texas will be spared much if any severe weather because the system has slowed so much in recent runs that there won’t be any instability in the overnight environment. Given that 3/23 already shows perfect timing, any deviations would probably result in some degree of a lesser event

[ElectricStorm]

I will not be happy if I go this entire sequence this week with nothing more than a marginal risk lol... Counting on Sunday morning now

[InfernoFlameCat]

I see tornado on radar south west of Bloomington Illinois

[Iceresistance]

Severe Storm near Farmington, MO has a "Tornado...POSSIBLE" on the Severe Thunderstorm Warning, does have a Mesocyclone that can ram up & produce a tornado . . .

[ElectricStorm]

0z HRRR likes that slight risk area tomorrow... A lot

[Iceresistance]

0z HRRR likes that slight risk area tomorrow... A lot

Yes, it even mentions a Splitting Supercell near Amarillo, not too often that it is featured in the Models, let alone Mesoscale Models . . .

[ElectricStorm]

I mean, it is kind of hard for me to trust the HRRR given it's track record over the last couple years *ahem* 5/20/19 and 3/28/20

[ElectricStorm]

Updated SPC outlook for Friday. 5% tor area added and a hatched area for hail added as well. They mention in the disco an upgrade to enhanced is possible in later outloooks.

[Iceresistance]

The HRRR model (6z-12z) is still firing off Supercells in the Texas Panhandle & into SW Oklahoma . . .

[Iceresistance]

Storms are blowing up on Radar in NW Oklahoma & Southern Kansas . . .

[Iceresistance]

Severe Thunderstorm at the OK/KS border near Alva, OK for Ping Pong Ball Sized Hail & 60 mph winds . . .

[Iceresistance]

Mesoscale Discussion #155

[ElectricStorm]

Enhanced risk added for tomorrow. 10 hatched tornado risk. I think there may even be a small chance that tomorrow could be the first moderate risk of the year.

EDIT: SPC does mention the possibility of another upgrade

[Iceresistance]

Tornado Watch #17 in Panhandle Texas & far Eastern New Mexico . . .