Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[Iceresistance]

Severe weather possible AGAIN in the Southern Half of Oklahoma Tomorrow . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

I don't have a rain gauge but I do have a barometer and I have noticed it tends to sit 921 mb (I live around 1330 ft above sea level) but recently it is going down more often with these large low pressure areas. I believe this may be associated with the Severe storm season and its increased amount of low pressure areas and it is pretty neat.

[FormerNewtotex]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Enhanced risk up for Thursday in Dixie Alley with a large hatched area

[Iceresistance]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Enhanced risk up for Thursday in Dixie Alley with a large hatched area

The same areas that was under Last Week's High Risk day are under the gun again!



Comparsion to the 1st High risk day of 2021 (The week before, also the first one since 5/20/2019)

[Iceresistance]

Pivotal Weather 12z GFS sounding over SE Mississippi (SCP is a 24 down there! )

[InfernoFlameCat]

Iceresistance I thought for a split second that Alabama was under another high risk! Lol. Anyhow yes and this could go up to a moderate risk too. They are very similar in location which seems like a cruel trick played by nature. Hopefully it remains enhanced.

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance I thought for a split second that Alabama was under another high risk! Lol. Anyhow yes and this could go up to a moderate risk too. They are very similar in location which seems like a cruel trick played by nature. Hopefully it remains enhanced.

With the GFS showing CRAZY soundings & with the Enchanced risk showing as broad, we may have a very rare 2 high-risk days in a SINGLE MONTH!

And it's only March

[FormerNewtotex]

The same areas that was under Last Week's High Risk day are under the gun again!

Tis the season I guess! Going to be interesting to see how this one plays out, I think the main hampering last week was thermodynamics. If the clouds to clear then it could be big

[Iceresistance]

Upgraded to Slight at Coastal Louisiana, including New Orleans

[FireRat]

The 25th is looking like a potential beast in the South, same area affected by the St Patricks day event too, and maybe even more widespread. Enhanced risk this far out is frankly ominous.

[ElectricStorm]

Also SPC is mentioning yet another system in the Day 4-8 outlook that may need to be highlighted... Active pattern continues

[Iceresistance]

The 25th is looking like a potential beast in the South, same area affected by the St Patricks day event too, and maybe even more widespread. Enhanced risk this far out is frankly ominous.

Yeah, this is looking very scary, the SCP is CRAZY HIGH on the 25th, especially in Mississippi (SCP of a 24)

[Iceresistance]

Also SPC is mentioning yet another system in the Day 4-8 outlook that may need to be highlighted... Active pattern continues

I'm getting 2019 vibes here . . .

[Iceresistance]

Tomorrow's outlook updated

[AnnularCane]

Okay, I must know. What is the SCP and what do its numbers mean?

[ElectricStorm]

Okay, I must know. What is the SCP and what do its numbers mean?

Supercell composite. The higher the number the more favorable for supercells it is... 24 is getting way up there for sure.

There's also a STP, significant tornado parameter. Same idea the higher the number the more favorable it is. NAM is showing STP around 5 +for Thursday which is pretty serious.
HRRR is showing STP at 6+ at 18z Thurs. Well before the peak of the event...

[Iceresistance]

Okay, I must know. What is the SCP and what do its numbers mean?

Supercell Composite is the measurement on how favorable the Atmopshere is & also highlights the co-existance for ingredients for Supercells, 1 is slightly favorable & with at least several ingredients missing, but as the numbers get higher, the more favorable & more ingredients there are for long-lasting supercells, a 10 is calling for an outbreak with all ingredients in place & the conditions are very favorable for Supercell development . . .

But a 20 means that very long-lived & extremely dangerous Supercells are likely, the conditions are extremely favorable for supercell activity . . .

Positive Supercell Composites favor Right-moving (Going in the East direction) Supercells, Negative SCP also exists, & favors Left Moving Supercells (Ones that take odd paths, like Due North & going west)

[Iceresistance]

Okay, I must know. What is the SCP and what do its numbers mean?

Supercell composite. The higher the number the more favorable for supercells it is... 24 is getting way up there for sure.

There's also a STP, significant tornado parameter. Same idea the higher the number the more favorable it is. NAM is showing STP around 5 +for Thursday which is pretty serious

12z GFS has a sounding with a STP of a 7

[cheezyWXguy]

Conditions look a lot better for an outbreak this time than 3/17. Shear values noticeably higher, and at least as much cape. Wouldn’t be surprised to see our first ef4+ of the year come out of this event

[Iceresistance]

Conditions look a lot better for an outbreak this time than 3/17. Shear values noticeably higher, and at least as much cape. Wouldn’t be surprised to see our first ef4+ of the year come out of this event

And High Risk day #2, IN MARCH?