Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
This is quite a march. April is looking EXTREMELY active.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
0z NAM soundings






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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
6z NAM soundings

Likely Contamiated, but OMG!

Also Likely Contamiated






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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
If future runs continue to follow the 11z HRRR I think Birmingham will get added to the high risk in a future update.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Iceresistance wrote:6z NAM soundings
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021032506_NAM_012_32.94-89.65_severe_ml.png
Likely Contamiated, but OMG!
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021032506_NAM_012_32.86-89.98_severe_ml.png
Also Likely Contamiated
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021032506_NAM_015_33.9-88.09_severe_ml.png
Wtf, that last one...
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
That last sounding WHAT! That is insane for a none contaminated sounding!!!! Holy crap Wow This Is Serious!
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- AnnularCane
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Bunkertor wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Also what is the highest sounding yall have ever seen? How did that turn out?
I remember, we once had tor:con around 14 and SFBCape 8000 ? for the Jacksonville section. Weather forecasters even went to the place by plane. It was a bust though.
14? Surely you exaggerate.

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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
At this point, there's not much reason to look at non-CAM models, and even then, I'd only look at models to compare their predictions to real-life verification. The NAM is a bit too broad for ideal use at this close timeframe.
Better to shift into nowcasting/comparing soundings with those from models like the HRRR.
Better to shift into nowcasting/comparing soundings with those from models like the HRRR.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student, Georgia Institute of Technology
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Wow the wording in the Day 1 outlook is the some of the strongest I've ever seen from SPC. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 45 hatched tornado risk later...
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Weather Dude wrote:Wow the wording in the Day 1 outlook is the some of the strongest I've ever seen from SPC. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 45 hatched tornado risk later...
Or a 60% Hatched . . .

A tornado outbreak -- including the threat of a few long-tracked,
violent tornadoes -- is expected today into early this evening over
the Southeast, especially parts of Mississippi, Alabama and
Tennessee. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds
to hurricane force also are possible over a broad area from the
central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
AnnularCane wrote:Bunkertor wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Also what is the highest sounding yall have ever seen? How did that turn out?
I remember, we once had tor:con around 14 and SFBCape 8000 ? for the Jacksonville section. Weather forecasters even went to the place by plane. It was a bust though.
14? Surely you exaggerate.I've seen a 10 on 4/27/2011 and that was the highest.
I remember Spann saying " I thought the scale ends at ~ 12 ". But OK, can be, i am wrong here.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Too many 12z NAM Soundings are contamiated
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Iceresistance wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Wow the wording in the Day 1 outlook is the some of the strongest I've ever seen from SPC. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 45 hatched tornado risk later...
Or a 60% Hatched . . .
A tornado outbreak -- including the threat of a few long-tracked,
violent tornadoes -- is expected today into early this evening over
the Southeast, especially parts of Mississippi, Alabama and
Tennessee. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds
to hurricane force also are possible over a broad area from the
central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.
Honestly if there's ever a day that even has a chance at a 60#, it's today. I think a 45# is all but certain on a later outlook now. Synoptically, 4/27/11 is the #1 analogue to today. I personally have a rule that I never compare any setups to one of the Super Outbreaks, and I don't think this will be another super outbreak. But today certainly has very high end potential. The only way that rule goes out the window is if a 60# is issued. (Which I still think is unlikely).
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
There is one spot on the hrrr cape that shows 3500+ JEWLS per Kilogram!!!!
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Iceresistance : Could you please link your soundings site
The first MD is in
@all : Would it be reasonable, if we had a seperate thread for "big events", where likely 10 or more pages are needed, so that we have something like an archive and more order ?
The first MD is in
@all : Would it be reasonable, if we had a seperate thread for "big events", where likely 10 or more pages are needed, so that we have something like an archive and more order ?
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
InfernoFlameCat wrote:There is one spot on the hrrr cape that shows 3500+ JEWLS per Kilogram!!!!
But significant weakening after 21z, whereas the SPC is going full throttle. I guess, it is an error.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Bunkertor wrote:Iceresistance : Could you please link your soundings site
The first MD is in
@all : Would it be reasonable, if we had a seperate thread for "big events", where likely 10 or more pages are needed, so that we have something like an archive and more order ?
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Bunkertor wrote:Iceresistance : Could you please link your soundings site
The first MD is in
@all : Would it be reasonable, if we had a seperate thread for "big events", where likely 10 or more pages are needed, so that we have something like an archive and more order ?
I think so...
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Iceresistance wrote:Bunkertor wrote:Iceresistance : Could you please link your soundings site
The first MD is in
@all : Would it be reasonable, if we had a seperate thread for "big events", where likely 10 or more pages are needed, so that we have something like an archive and more order ?
https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Thanks, i have already found it, i just wondered, why my sounding sites differ
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Wording from the SPC:
This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space. In such an
environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of
multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5
possible), with considerable destructive potential.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
This is an uncommon, upper-echelon parameter space. In such an
environment, any relatively discrete supercells will be capable of
multiple tornadoes, some long-tracked and strong to violent (EF2-5
possible), with considerable destructive potential.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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Old account "Newtotex"
Most memorable tornadoes: 1997 & 2000 Tuscaloosa Tornadoes, 1998 Oak Grove Tornado
Hurricane Opal/Ivan/Katrina
Most memorable tornadoes: 1997 & 2000 Tuscaloosa Tornadoes, 1998 Oak Grove Tornado
Hurricane Opal/Ivan/Katrina
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