#11 Postby aspen » Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:47 pm
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:Let's have a mini poll here about the names you think will be the best cyclones. I will take Guillermo (Cat 4) and again another monster Linda (Cat 3) but not as strong as the Linda 1997 one with 185 mph.
If we go with a brief ENSO warming phase through July, followed by a resurgent La Nina in ASO as the CFS currently predicts, I would choose Felicia and Guillermo as having the best shots of being the strongest systems of the season before the EPAC shuts down.
If we go with the March Euro seasonal forecast of warm-neutral ENSO persisting the entire hurricane season, then it will be something like Jimena early on, followed up by Pamela, Sandra and Rick.
Pamela is going to have a lot to live up to. I hope it’s a long-tracking open ocean Cat 4 or 5 that is fun to track, stays well away from land, and isn’t a pathetic first use of the replacement name for one of the strongest storms ever seen.
With the chances of a full-blown La Niña for ASO dropping as fast as Patricia’s pressure on the night of its peak, we probably won’t see as much of a slop season as 2020. While it did have a trio of Cat 4s, both Genevieve and Marie struggled and/or failed to truly live up to model and environmental potential, and it had a lot of extremely weak slop storms lasting just 48 hours or less. A neutral ENSO through the end of the season would give the EPac the opportunity to be decently active, and we’ll probably get to or past Pamela on this year’s list; the EPac still got to Polo despite a La Niña.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.