ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ENSO Updates
Whatever happens this year, I think it would be a reasonable bet to say that an El Nino is definitely within the realm of possibilities in 2022.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Got the new Euro seasonal out. Almost an even split between warm and cool neutral:
[url]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/828635954218008616/pdf2svg-worker-commands-88596cfc-kmsqn-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-0QCTRK.png?width=651&height=536[url]
In graphic form for ASO:
[url]https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/streaming/20210405-1210/30/pdf2svg-worker-commands-88596cfc-gjsmd-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-3UbbIA.svg[url]
In regards to ENSO, April Euro seasonal is cooler than March. Still shows some sort of +ENSO for ASO but it's not as pronounced on this run.
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Re: ENSO Updates
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1379092206645051395
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1379175625425051653
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1379188102892290053
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1379199832556855297
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1250152823028883458
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1379175625425051653
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1379188102892290053
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1379199832556855297
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1250152823028883458
Last edited by Shell Mound on Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Shell Mound wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1379092206645051395[url]
[url]https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1250152823028883458[url]
[url]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVlvXIpWAAMOl9S?format=png&name=large[url]
Yeah there's absolutely no question that cool-neutral is just as active as a La Nina for the Atlantic. It's just as bad. 2005, 2017, and 2020 were seasons that did not have La Nina in place as the season started, and instead had cool-neutral before La Nina came on later in the year.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Shell Mound wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1379092206645051395[url]
[url]https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1250152823028883458[url]
[url]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVlvXIpWAAMOl9S?format=png&name=large[url]
Yeah there's absolutely no question that cool-neutral is just as active as a La Nina for the Atlantic. It's just as bad. 2005, 2017, and 2020 were seasons that did not have La Nina in place as the season started, and instead had cool-neutral before La Nina came on later in the year.
I figured all that a cool-neutral already puts a cap on wind shear in the ATL and that La Niña doesn’t just..get rid of more wind shear. Cool-Neutral does the same trick.
Full blown La Niña winters however have larger implications in the south than even Neutral winters.
The past couple of times South Texas has seen serious snow were December 2017, and of course back in February this year; both heavy La Niña years.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ENSO Updates
It's quite interesting imho to see how the stronger the Nina the lower ACE the Atlantic tends to produce compared to a weak Nina or even neutral. I wonder why that is the case
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Category5Kaiju wrote:It's quite interesting imho to see how the stronger the Nina the lower ACE the Atlantic tends to produce compared to a weak Nina or even neutral. I wonder why that is the case
I'm not sure why exactly but for both the EPAC and Atlantic there's a lot of seasons where ENSO +/- neutral resulted in seasons just as active if not more active than a strong El Nino or La Nina.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Here's the latest 90 day CFS. We'll see if it verifies again or not.
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Re: ENSO Updates
Category5Kaiju wrote:It's quite interesting imho to see how the stronger the Nina the lower ACE the Atlantic tends to produce compared to a weak Nina or even neutral. I wonder why that is the case
The sample size is way too small to infer any statistical significance from that.
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- Kingarabian
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ENSO Updates
That discussion on the WAM and how it is able to dampen the effects of an incoming El Nino is quite interesting.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: ENSO Updates
Category5Kaiju wrote:That discussion on the WAM and how it is able to dampen the effects of an incoming El Nino is quite interesting.
It is pretty intriguing given the way it has been a stalwart in the global circulation over the past 5 years or so. A warm tropical Atlantic can help fend off El Niño development because it allows for more upward motion to focus itself in the Atlantic Basin, and thus prevents the Pacific from hogging most of it as it would during your typical Niño episode. And since the African Standing Wave produces a strong WAM which slows trades down in the MDR with abundant westerlies, that's how you get said warm Atlantic. This has pretty much been a recurring theme since 2016 or so where the ASW gets cranking by late spring/early summer and warms up the waters in the Atlantic (which have often started off relatively cool, if not -AMO like at times) so it's worth seeing if it puts up a fight against the changing ENSO state this year once again.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Per NotSparta's website: https://cyclonicwx.com/
The GFS is going crazy with this WWB. Doubt it verifies at this strength.
The GFS is going crazy with this WWB. Doubt it verifies at this strength.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Per NotSparta's website: https://cyclonicwx.com/
The GFS is going crazy with this WWB. Doubt it verifies at this strength.
https://i.imgur.com/VtZwhyS.png
I think a major factor on how strong this WWB gets would be the strength of the WPAC system it'll likely spawn. GFS has forecasted a super typhoon over the past few runs so it makes sense that it has the most prolonged and intense spell of westerlies out of all the models.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Will be interesting to see how long the MJO stays over the WPAC:
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Re: ENSO Updates
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1379651429720154113
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1379652261786251270
https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1379552937341546500
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1379502910468395012
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1379502912339116036
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1379652261786251270
https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1379552937341546500
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1379502910468395012
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1379502912339116036
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CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Sad to see the tropical waves page from Dr. Ventrice being discontinued. Taught us a lot and was extremely informative. I think it changed a lot in how we assess the climate, as well as tropical cyclone genesis. I wish there was a way to crowdsource the page and keep it alive.
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: ENSO Updates
April NMME:
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- DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: ENSO Updates
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC April update: Neutral by May
Part of the reason why this WWB over the WPAC is forecast to linger for so long by all the models, is due to the high potential for numerous low latitude TC's in the region. So even if these systems are not becoming full blown TC's, they are influencing the low level wind speeds by an extra 10-15kts.
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