WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Finally here.

94W.INVEST

94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6N.146E

[Kingarabian]

Alrighties let's see what it got.

[Hayabusa]

Next name is Surigae it will be the first time to be used replacing Mujigae. Surigae means a kind of eagles.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

The models do agree that whatever develops out of this will take days.

EURO after it crosses the Philippines and GFS in about 3-4 days.

[euro6208]

I'd favor the GFS on this one. With the enhanced phrase of the MJO about to arrive from the South China Sea together with the existing divergent flow afloat, it will likely develop further.

[aspen]

Holy $&@%

888 mbar


That’s the strongest GFS run in YEARS, even stronger than any run for Hagibis.

[Iceresistance]

Holy ****

888 mbar
https://i.imgur.com/iMYL9vL.png

That’s the strongest GFS run in YEARS, even stronger than any run for Hagibis.

OMG THAT IS LOW AS GILBERT IN 1988!

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro and 12z GFS seem to generally agree on intensity within the next 72 hours. It's after that time frame when the differences become significant.

[ElectricStorm]

Holy $&@%

888 mbar
https://i.imgur.com/iMYL9vL.png

That’s the strongest GFS run in YEARS, even stronger than any run for Hagibis.

Welp looks like this is the first Model Hall of Fame Fantasy run for the upgraded GFS

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS rolling soon. Let's see if it matches that 888mb drop.

[Hayabusa]

Holy $&@%

888 mbar
https://i.imgur.com/iMYL9vL.png

That’s the strongest GFS run in YEARS, even stronger than any run for Hagibis.

Wow! Did the GFS version upgrade go back to ol crazy GFS intensities?

[aspen]

18z GFS rolling soon. Let's see if it matches that 888mb drop.

It did not, but 922 mbar is not weak by any standards. It’s slower to intensify and stalls for longer as compared to some of the previous runs, and there’s a potentially name-worthy system within 96-120 hours.

[JW-_-]

9th 12z

[euro6208]

The near term forecast remains mostly unchanged, as the atmosphere
should remain stable through Sunday. By Sunday night a weak
disturbance is expected to move in from the south. Because of that
the forecast was updated for a chance of showers Sunday night and
Monday.

Tuesday is where the forecast models diverge sharply. The GFS still
expects a strong tropical system to develop rapidly and move to the
west of the Marianas. While this scenario cannot be ignored, it is
unlikely. Instead, the forecast follows the more realistic Euro
solution. The Euro also expects some development, just slower and
has a weak system developing. Additionally, impacts to the Marianas
would be minimal, since the system would stay well south of the
Marianas. Still, sky cover was increased along with PoPs starting
Wednesday, with higher chances for showers at Guam than the CNMI.
Overall, this remains a tricky forecast until the system begins to
develop. Forecast confidence past Monday remains low.

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC past 5 days is significantly stronger:


00z GFS a bit stronger than the 18z GFS down to 906mb.

00z CMC peak:

[mrbagyo]

[JW-_-]

EC 00z showing interest.

[mrbagyo]

ECMWF IFS hi res is bullish.

[JW-_-]

ECMWF IFS hi res suddenly went bullish. oh my goodness
https://i.imgur.com/44DZ2hs.png

hi-res