ColdMiser123 wrote:Shell Mound wrote:ColdMiser123 wrote:
I can't speak for the decision making that is currently taking place at the NHC when it comes to the final intensity they will end up going with, but I've made a post earlier as to why it will most likely be a close call between a high-end Category 2, and a low-end Category 3 for Sally as the final intensity.
That being said, I think it is significant that one of the NHC forecasters tweeted this out just before Sally made landfall:
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306105906564915200
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1306107100456792064
The lower 150 meter average of 113 kt is much more significant than the 112 kt instantaneous wind at the surface.
Should note as well that while this might seem like semantics, the 0.85 reduction from 113 kt gives you a surface wind estimate of 96 kt, which would be low-end Category 3. It goes toward the overall idea that this will be a close call between a high-end Category 2 and a low-end Category 3.
Personally, I don’t think a single piece of data will be sufficient for the NHC to upgrade Sally to 100 knots. Other than the profiled winds in the sonde, other data, including satellite estimates, radar data, and surface (including marine) observations, do not really support Cat-3 status. I do think that the TCR will increase the MSW slightly, from 90 → 95 knots, but Sally will likely go on record as a high-end Cat-2 prior to and during landfall. On the other hand, I think there is a far stronger case to be presented for upgrading Zeta from 95 → 100 knots, given solid support from both aircraft and NEXRAD. So in the end 2020 will likely tie 2005’s record total of seven MH.