WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[JW-_-]

There is a slight stall and a SW dip on that 18z run then W and NNW Anyways let's wait for the 00z. With what the other models are thinking atm ec is the outliner. But it's also the best. with 500MB.

Timestamp was approximately 6-7pm.

[ElectricStorm]

02W SURIGAE 210417 0000 10.7N 131.1E WPAC 120 940

[dexterlabio]

If this were in the prime months of the WPAC (Sept-Nov) this would have easily exploded into a Cat5...regardless Surigae is a remarkable typhoon in the middle of the dry period in SE Asia..

[JW-_-]

[JW-_-]

Super Typhoon data. Atm climbing towards those emanual intensity plots.

[JW-_-]

Climate change it ain't no April fools either.

[JW-_-]

Any ideas of what's going on atm in the eye.

[aspen]

Lol there’s no way this is getting to 180 kt. And if it does, we’ll sadly never know with absolute certainty due to a lack of recon.

The eye is likely funky due to mesovortecies (a common sight in string intensifying TCs) and the internal core changes that have been plaguing Surigae all day.

[dexterlabio]

https://i.imgur.com/5ostyP7.png
Any ideas of what's going on atm in the eye.

I do believe it's because of the dry air, although in small amounts, getting into the core.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/5ostyP7.png
Any ideas of what's going on atm in the eye.

I do believe it's because of the dry air, although in small amounts, getting into the core.

Probably due to a bit of a gap in the otherwise good eyewall. Once it fully closes off, a Cat 5 is on the table for tomorrow.

[JW-_-]

[mrbagyo]

Long rapid scan loop

[JW-_-]

Everyone sees different. I see a mature cat5 on this image.

[euro6208]

New peak, 130 knots.



WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A 12 NM EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
120 KTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0-6.5 (115-
127 KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, RJTD, AND RCTP. THE INITIAL WIND RADII DATA
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SMAP DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 02W IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24, REACHING A PEAK OF 130 KTS. AFTERWARDS,
TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AROUND TAU 36. BY TAU 48, A BUILDING STR TO THE EAST
WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, TURNING TY 02W TO
A NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH, THE DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 89 NM BY TAU 48. OF NOTE, THE LATEST NAVGEM
SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS IT MOVES NORTH, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE BY TAU 72, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING TO
85 KTS BY TAU 120. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 447 NM AT TAU 120. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BRING THE SYSTEM OVER LUZON BY TAU 120.
ADDITIONALLY, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THE UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE, AND
JGSM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah this'll probably peak in the 135-140kt range sometime tomorrow. Almost certainly should become the first super typhoon of the year at the very minimum.

[JW-_-]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TYPHOON 02W
Saturday 17apr21 Time: 0033 UTC
Latitude: 10.76 Longitude: 131.01
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 25 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 918 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 155 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )



-----------------------------------------------------------------
+/- 10mb +/- 12kts

[Hayabusa]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TYPHOON 02W
Saturday 17apr21 Time: 0033 UTC
Latitude: 10.76 Longitude: 131.01
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 25 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 918 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 155 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )



-----------------------------------------------------------------
+/- 10mb +/- 12kts

If SATCON is legit, then it has already beaten Typhoon Isa of 1997 (145 kts), 3 kts more to go and it would beat Typhoon Thelma of 1956 (150 kts), the strongest April typhoon in winds from JTWC best track.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 04170033
SATCON: MSLP = 923 hPa MSW = 148 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 143.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 135 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 245 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.0 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 928 hPa 135 knots Scene: CDO Date: APR170210
CIMSS AMSU: 918 hPa 155 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 04170033
ATMS: 931.3 hPa 119.2 knots Date: 04161713
SSMIS: 918.0 hPa 138.0 knots Date: 04162225
CIRA ATMS: 960 hPa 88 knots Date:

[euro6208]

Catching up and still on the low side?

[mrbagyo]

barring another EWRC or another bout of dry air intrusion, I think Surigae has a legit chance of going T7.5 over the sea just east of Samar Island where the OHC is located (might also coincide with DMAX) - next 24 hours will be exciting

[JW-_-]

@1900hurricane he usually is ballpark correct in his analysis. If your about what do you think champ.
Thanks in advance.