WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Wow this is incredible stuff... 8.0 IN APRIL.... This is setting up to break records for real.

[mrbagyo]

we now have our first super typhoon
02W SURIGAE 210417 0600 11.3N 130.2E WPAC 130 925

[Cunxi Huang]

WPAC SHIPS model brings this storm to another level completely.

* WEST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SURIGAE WP022021 04/17/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 120 138 154 166 168 155 123 85 72 57 46 57 83
V (KT) LAND 120 138 154 166 168 155 123 85 72 57 46 57 83
V (KT) LGE mod 120 125 125 121 118 108 100 97 95 90 84 78 72
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A

[euro6208]

Oh my. Not only do we have a rapidly intensifying tyohoon but a truly underestimated one as well. This is a legit Cat 5. Agencies playing catchup.

[Meow]

Oh my. Not only do we have a rapidly intensifying tyohoon but a truly underestimated one as well. This is a legit Cat 5. Agencies playing catchup.

That’s how agencies could estimate when they analysed T6.5.

[mrbagyo]

I can't wait for these upcoming microwave pass

SSMI
04/17 07:32Z F-15

SSMIS

04/17 09:36Z F-17
04/17 07:42Z F-18

[mrbagyo]

JMA
TY2102(Surigae)
Issued at 2021/04/17 06:45 UTC
Analisys at 04/17 06 UTC
Category TY
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center Position N11°25′(11.4°)
E130°10′(130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
50-kt wind area S220km(120NM)
N185km(100NM)
30-kt wind area WIDE390km(210NM)

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/kyE2r0x.jpg[url]

best it has looked so far

That black ring on MW is proof of a very intense eyewall, one mainly found in high end major hurricanes.

[JW-_-]

https://imgur.com/PETU0Uj

[Kingarabian]

Right in the OHC bullseye

[url]https://i.imgur.com/1EW3YvA.png[url]

OHC is insane for April but it's also the atmosphere playing a significant role to allow for this type of intensification -- this early in the year. For some reason it's behaving the exact opposite of La Nina over the WPAC.

[JW-_-]

Climate change

[kevin]

This is the first time I've ever seen a raw T# of 8.0 in April. Is this also the first time this has happened since records began or are there any other known instances of a raw T# of 8.0 in April?

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 170625
TCSWNP

A. 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 17/0530Z

C. 11.3N

D. 130.2E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T7.0/7.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. A
CDG RING SURROUNDING AN OW EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG YIELDS A DT=7.0. THE MET
AND PT EQUAL 6.5. THE FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SANDUSKY

[Kingarabian]

1 day old tweet but very relevant:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1382656793340436480

[JW-_-]

[Hayabusa]

This is the first time I've ever seen a raw T# of 8.0 in April. Is this also the first time this has happened since records began or are there any other known instances of a raw T# of 8.0 in April?

There were only 3 cat 5 typhoons that occurred in April on record, from JTWC best track those years were 1956, 1989 and 1997. So I guess it's safe to say this is a first in this basin since ADT records only go back to 2003

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 APR 2021 Time : 064000 UTC
Lat : 11:25:48 N Lon : 130:04:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 910.3mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.8 7.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +14.4C Cloud Region Temp : -84.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

[Meow]

This is the first time I've ever seen a raw T# of 8.0 in April. Is this also the first time this has happened since records began or are there any other known instances of a raw T# of 8.0 in April?

There were only 3 cat 5 typhoons that occurred in April on record, from JTWC best track those years were 1956, 1989 and 1997. So I guess it's safe to say this is a first in this basin since ADT records only go back to 2003

You missed Maysak in 2015 which was Cat 5 at 00Z on 1 April.

[Hayabusa]

Second raw 8.0, Goni only had one

2021APR17 070000 7.5 907.1 155.0 7.5 7.9 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.17 -83.19 EYE 20 IR 97.0 11.55 -130.03 ARCHER HIM-8 18.4