WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#421 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:44 am

Meow wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
kevin wrote:This is the first time I've ever seen a raw T# of 8.0 in April. Is this also the first time this has happened since records began or are there any other known instances of a raw T# of 8.0 in April?

There were only 3 cat 5 typhoons that occurred in April on record, from JTWC best track those years were 1956, 1989 and 1997. So I guess it's safe to say this is a first in this basin since ADT records only go back to 2003

You missed Maysak in 2015 which was Cat 5 at 00Z on 1 April.

My bad, but ADT of Maysak only reached a peak of 7.0
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#422 Postby euro6208 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:45 am

Image

CDG off the charts. I wonder what DMAX will bring.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#423 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:46 am

Meow wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:
kevin wrote:This is the first time I've ever seen a raw T# of 8.0 in April. Is this also the first time this has happened since records began or are there any other known instances of a raw T# of 8.0 in April?

There were only 3 cat 5 typhoons that occurred in April on record, from JTWC best track those years were 1956, 1989 and 1997. So I guess it's safe to say this is a first in this basin since ADT records only go back to 2003

You missed Maysak in 2015 which was Cat 5 at 00Z on 1 April.

Yeah. Although Maysak didn't get assigned anything more than a 6.9. If this can actually break constraints and reach T8.0 before ERC's start piling up, it would be something else. This is also fascinating because unlike 1997 and 2015, this year does not have a super El Nino in the cards.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#424 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:49 am

Cunxi Huang wrote:Missing person returning to forum. Here's my first post.

https://twitter.com/CharlieFurWx/status/1383303929069404163


mrbagyo wrote:Let's Go!!!!
https://i.imgur.com/bxaLny3.gif


If this isn't the definition of explosive intensification, I don't know what is.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#425 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:49 am

A CI of 7.5 = 155 knots, that would make it already the strongest typhoon in April
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 APR 2021 Time : 070000 UTC
Lat : 11:33:00 N Lon : 130:01:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 907.1mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.9 8.0
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#426 Postby Meow » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:03 am

If you wonder why it’s 130 knots from JTWC:

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS (RCTP), T6.5/127KTS (PGTW/RJTD), T7.0/140KTS (KNES), AND THE OBJECTIVE SATCON CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF T7.2/146KTS THAT REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONDITION OF THE SYSTEM.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#427 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:38 am

If it could maintain this until 12Z update (now 0838Z) and through DMAX... I can't imagine how much it would go nuclear :double:
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#428 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:42 am

3rd raw 8.0
2021APR17 081000 7.8 897.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 8.0 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.12 -83.98 EYE 18 IR 97.0 11.62 -129.81 ARCHER HIM-8 18.6
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#429 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:58 am

sun going down.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#430 Postby euro6208 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:00 am

I do not know what's more mind boggling. The extremely high adt raw numbers or the extremely low underestimated intensity of 130 knots.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#431 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:12 am

4th 8.0
2021APR17 084000 7.8 897.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 8.0 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.99 -84.15 EYE 18 IR 70.7 11.67 -129.78 ARCHER HIM-8 18.7
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#432 Postby Subtrop » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:12 am

TPPN10 PGTW 170903

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE)

B. 17/0830Z

C. 11.62N

D. 129.89E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.5. MET YIELDS 6.5, PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0421Z 11.05N 130.40E ATMS
17/0431Z 11.08N 130.45E AMS2


RHOADES
Last edited by Subtrop on Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#433 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:13 am

Concentric eyewalls but that would coincide with DMAX and crossing of OHC rich water. EWRC or Meld?
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#434 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:29 am

Image

The original loop is @ http://quicklooks.cr.chiba-u.ac.jp/~him ... e/mov.html
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#435 Postby TorSkk » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:39 am

Looking a little better now with a few pixels of WMG in the eye. Solid CDG ring for some time but the eye temp has been fluctuating
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#436 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:43 am

Whoa now that's a CDG ring... :eek: Yeah how is this only 130kts lol? Classic JTWC
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#437 Postby euro6208 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:44 am

If I were to go with ADT, its in the 160 to 165 knots hallmark but I think the eye isn't warm enough so I'd go with 155 knots.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#438 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:11 am

TorSkk wrote:Looking a little better now with a few pixels of WMG in the eye. Solid CDG ring for some time but the eye temp has been fluctuating
https://i.imgur.com/VT1q13E.png

Holy ****, this really took off overnight.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#439 Postby JW-_- » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:14 am

Image
And that was the GFS 06z.Brushing and OTS
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https://imgur.com/Dudh4i4
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#440 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:25 am

euro6208 wrote:If I were to go with ADT, its in the 160 to 165 knots hallmark but I think the eye isn't warm enough so I'd go with 155 knots.

Yeah I wouldn’t go with a perfect T#8.0/170 kt yet, because while it does look a lot like Goni (giant CDG CDO with a moderately clear eye), Surigae hasn’t been a Category 4+ storm for nearly as long as Goni was. Therefore, it made sense that Goni could make it to 170 kt without a 15-20+ C eye. Surigae will need to keep its look and further clear its eye to get a perfect T#8.0, which could be difficult due to mesovortecies and a possible EWRC that could start at any time.
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