WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

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Highteeld
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#521 Postby Highteeld » Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:20 am

Yeah this thing is getting weaker. ERC has to be starting.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#522 Postby euro6208 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:24 am

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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#523 Postby kevin » Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:37 am

CI# still steady at 8.0, but the final T# has done down slightly to 7.9.

Current Intensity Analysis


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 APR 2021 Time : 154000 UTC
Lat : 12:27:36 N Lon : 128:42:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.0 / 890.2mb/170.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.9 7.9 7.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +19.9C Cloud Region Temp : -82.1C
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#524 Postby kevin » Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:46 am

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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#525 Postby aspen » Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:56 am

Just needs to maintain itself a little longer to get that official T#8.0 upgrade it rightfully deserves.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#526 Postby Cunxi Huang » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:05 pm

JMA 18Z T8.0/8.0.

24 019111 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
25 019112 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
26 019113 CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 3
27 019114 MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.0
28 019115 TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) 1.5
29 019116 PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.5
30 019117 CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 1
31 019118 FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8.0
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#527 Postby Meow » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:07 pm

CI: 8.0 | DT: 8.0 | MET: 7.0 | PT: 7.5 | FT: 8.0

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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#528 Postby NotoSans » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:13 pm

 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1383482937383940098


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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#529 Postby TorSkk » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:26 pm

Did Goni get a CI of 8 from JMA?
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#530 Postby TyphoonNara » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:31 pm

TorSkk wrote:Did Goni get a CI of 8 from JMA?


Yes it did.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#531 Postby Meow » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:32 pm

TorSkk wrote:Did Goni get a CI of 8 from JMA?

Precisely, CI8.0 DT8.0 MET8.0 PT7.5 FT8.0 at 18Z on 31 Oct 2020.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#532 Postby Meow » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:34 pm

ERC is ongoing.

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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#533 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:36 pm

WHAT HAPPENED!!!
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#534 Postby MarioProtVI » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:43 pm

06z was revised to 140 kt, which I think is still too low regarding how it was looking at that time. Probably would go 150 kt and then 160-165 kt at 12z when it really looked it’s best.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#535 Postby TorSkk » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:46 pm

Officially 895 hPa
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#536 Postby Meow » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:47 pm

TorSkk wrote:Officially 895 hPa


The first below 900hPa from JMA since 2016.

<Analysis at 03 JST, 2021/04/18>
Intensity/Category Violent Typhoon
Center Position 12.6N 128.4E
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h (11kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60m/s (120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s (170kt)
≥ 50-kt wind area E 280km (150NM) W 220km (120NM)
≥ 30-kt wind area ALL 390km (210NM)

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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#537 Postby TorSkk » Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:49 pm

TorSkk wrote:Officially 895 hPa

Strongest TC worldwide since Meranti
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#538 Postby Cunxi Huang » Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:00 pm

Despite the T8.0 vibe from many places (RJTD, KNES, and CIMSS-ADT), I personally strongly doubt it has ever reached actual T8.0/170kt. One reason would be that Surigae's life-long semi-concentric/concentric eyewall structure that can seriously affect its intensity. The other would be that Surigae has never reached a T8.0 on a traditional standardized Dvorak scale. Moreover, SATCON and AMSU tend to exaggerate the intensity if the storm has concentric eyewall structure.
Last edited by Cunxi Huang on Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#539 Postby TorSkk » Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:02 pm

High OHC worked its magic

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Re: WPAC: SURIGAE - Typhoon

#540 Postby Meow » Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:06 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:Despite the T8.0 vibe from many places (RJTD, KNES, and CIMSS-ADT), I personally strongly doubt it has ever reached actual T8.0/170kt. One reason would be that Surigae's life-long semi-concentric/concentric eyewall structure that can seriously affect its intensity. The other would be that Surigae has never reached a T8.0 on a traditional standardized Dvorak scale. Moreover, SATCON and AMSU tend to exaggerate the intensity if the storm has concentric eyewall structure.

That’s how JMA didn’t analyse it fully 8.0 and estimated 120 knots, just like how Goni was estimated.
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