Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
4/22 looks like a day to watch for the plains. Moisture will likely be a problem so it won't be a huge event but there could be something. Also, I know it's fantasy range but the end of that GFS run is very interesting for early May...
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Time to see what the 0z GFS has for us... the 18z looked very interesting for the plains in the 4/30-5/3 range. Let's see if that continues. (It's fantasy range so a lot will change)
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Well hello there 4/26
Further south for 4/27
Geez 4/29... Getting into the fantasy portion of the run now but dang...
Wow what a run. I won't post any maps for 4/30 onward at this point as it's so far out but pretty much every day starting 4/26 has potential. That should line up with the MJO moving into Phase 8. Signs of the pattern change coming... Buckle up folks
Further south for 4/27
Geez 4/29... Getting into the fantasy portion of the run now but dang...
Wow what a run. I won't post any maps for 4/30 onward at this point as it's so far out but pretty much every day starting 4/26 has potential. That should line up with the MJO moving into Phase 8. Signs of the pattern change coming... Buckle up folks
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Setting a target date for 4/27 in the plains. Not saying it's going to be that exact date, but it looks like there might be something around that time frame. Also watching the 4/23-25 range for some possible dixie alley action...
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Target date stands, for now at least...
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
We need some action
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Severe weather potential in Southern to Northern Texas & the Southern Half of Oklahoma this Friday . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Iceresistance here comes your storms. Hopefully you don't get a dry slot again.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Iceresistance here comes your storms. Hopefully you don't get a dry slot again.
Well, I got hammered by 2 storms a couple weeks ago, the first one had up to Quarter sized hail for 10 minutes & the other storm had Nickel sized hail for around 3 minutes . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
GFS doesn't like 4/23 very much, but Euro and SPC do. I'm siding with the Euro and SPC for right now, but we'll know more in a few days when the CAMs get in range.
It's worth noting that both models have been consistent on a potential setup early next week that could be significant.
A couple of big severe weather anniversaries coming up around that time. Monday will be 30 years since 4/26/91 and Tuesday is obviously 10 years since the super outbreak
It's worth noting that both models have been consistent on a potential setup early next week that could be significant.
A couple of big severe weather anniversaries coming up around that time. Monday will be 30 years since 4/26/91 and Tuesday is obviously 10 years since the super outbreak
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
I found this uncontaminated sounding near Tecumseh, OK at +195 hours
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
This may be in the Fantasy range of the GFS model, but this setup is dangerously similar to the May 3rd, 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma, ON MAY 3RD!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Iceresistance wrote:This may be in the Fantasy range of the GFS model, but this setup is dangerously similar to the May 3rd, 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma, ON MAY 3RD!
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/2021041918_GFS_342_35.24-96.97_severe_ml.png
That's so far out there it'll be gone next run. I'm more concerned with the potential setup early next week for now. It's a ways out too, but the models have been pretty consistent so far...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
In other news flizzard watch for Tulsa lunch tomorrow
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#neversummer
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Brent wrote:In other news flizzard watch for Tulsa lunch tomorrow
Maybe if I just ignore it it'll go away
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
0z GFS might be caving to the Euro. This run shows a bit more potential for Friday than previous runs.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Weather Dude wrote:Brent wrote:In other news flizzard watch for Tulsa lunch tomorrow
Maybe if I just ignore it it'll go away
at least it'll be quick 40s by afternoon lol
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#neversummer
- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Friday looks very potent in the Southern Plains, spreads over into Dixie Alley Saturday . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
I like this something is brewing amongst mother nature.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- ElectricStorm
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- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
So we have a day 4 slight, a Day 5 slight, and SPC says we may have a day 7 (!) slight on tomorrow's outlook... Welcome to spring
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