Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
MJO currently in Phase 7, will move into Phase 8 later this week, & will stay into the favorable Severe Weather Phases into Early May for sure . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
GFS Trending closer to the SPC's Outlook . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
A couple of things I've noticed on the recent model runs.
1) Friday is trending up... GFS is starting to cave to the Euro, and the SREF now has a 60 sigtor contour in NE TX (For reference, both high risk days in March had a 90 contour, which is the highest it goes)
2) Tuesday looks... Especially if the Euro verifies. The models have been pretty consistent regarding that setup, and while it's still a week out, I think it has a ton of potential...
1) Friday is trending up... GFS is starting to cave to the Euro, and the SREF now has a 60 sigtor contour in NE TX (For reference, both high risk days in March had a 90 contour, which is the highest it goes)
2) Tuesday looks... Especially if the Euro verifies. The models have been pretty consistent regarding that setup, and while it's still a week out, I think it has a ton of potential...
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Boomer Sooner!
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Uh... Let's just hope the Euro is enjoying 4/20 day... I hope the next run doesn't look like that... And that's coming from me who loves storms
https://mobile.twitter.com/JReber16/sta ... 6297985024
https://mobile.twitter.com/JReber16/sta ... 6297985024
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Boomer Sooner!
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
18z GFS soundings for Friday's potential outbreak . . .
Near Chickasha, OK (Potentially contaminated, the blue bar is shooting off to the left)
Near Tecumseh, OK (Also potentially contaminated, but on the red side)
Near Chickasha, OK (Potentially contaminated, the blue bar is shooting off to the left)
Near Tecumseh, OK (Also potentially contaminated, but on the red side)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Weather Dude wrote:A couple of things I've noticed on the recent model runs.
1) Friday is trending up... GFS is starting to cave to the Euro, and the SREF now has a 60 sigtor contour in NE TX (For reference, both high risk days in March had a 90 contour, which is the highest it goes)
2) Tuesday looks... Especially if the Euro verifies. The models have been pretty consistent regarding that setup, and while it's still a week out, I think it has a ton of potential...
Can I see what the SREF model is showing on the Significant Tornado Contour?
(Italics): What is the Euro looking like in SCP & CAPE? And Soundings?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Iceresistance wrote:Weather Dude wrote:A couple of things I've noticed on the recent model runs.
1) Friday is trending up... GFS is starting to cave to the Euro, and the SREF now has a 60 sigtor contour in NE TX (For reference, both high risk days in March had a 90 contour, which is the highest it goes)
2) Tuesday looks... Especially if the Euro verifies. The models have been pretty consistent regarding that setup, and while it's still a week out, I think it has a ton of potential...
Can I see what the SREF model is showing on the Significant Tornado Contour?
(Italics): What is the Euro looking like in SCP & CAPE? And Soundings?
I'm not sure where SREF is actually I just got it from another forum. I think all that stuff for the Euro is premium only so I can't access it.
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Boomer Sooner!
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
0z GFS is a flop for 4/27. I don't think the event itself will be as big as what the 12z Euro showed (at least let's hope not). But with the SPC mentioning a *possible* Day 7 slight risk, you have to wonder...
Either way plenty of time for it to trend either way as it's still a week out. But it wouldn't be a good showing for the GFS if it gets outdueled by the Euro two events in row... I'm siding with the Euro for now. We'll see what happens.
GEFS however...
Either way plenty of time for it to trend either way as it's still a week out. But it wouldn't be a good showing for the GFS if it gets outdueled by the Euro two events in row... I'm siding with the Euro for now. We'll see what happens.
GEFS however...
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Day 7 slight risk up and SPC already mentioning higher probs possible...
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Boomer Sooner!
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- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Very broad Slight risk for Friday
Hatched area from Austin, TX to OKC & into Guthrie, OK
Hatched area from Austin, TX to OKC & into Guthrie, OK
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
MORE Severe weather expected Next Tuesday (7 days out)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4623
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- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Iceresistance wrote:MORE Severe weather expected Next Tuesday (7 days out)
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day7prob.gif
Yeah I mentioned earlier that they are already mentioning increasing probs... This really has potential to be something we haven't seen here in a long time...
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Boomer Sooner!
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Forecasting something this far out with this much confidence is something to be seriously aware of. We will have what looks like a train of outbreaks following it.Weather Dude wrote:Iceresistance wrote:MORE Severe weather expected Next Tuesday (7 days out)
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day7prob.gif
Yeah I mentioned earlier that they are already mentioning increasing probs... This really has potential to be something we haven't seen here in a long time...
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Weather Dude wrote:Iceresistance wrote:MORE Severe weather expected Next Tuesday (7 days out)
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/day7prob.gif
Yeah I mentioned earlier that they are already mentioning increasing probs... This really has potential to be something we haven't seen here in a long time...
I've just saw the KWTV-News 9 Forecast
Also, I'm seeing a potentially major outbreak next Tuesday as well . . .
This setup is CRAZY!
- High CAPE
- Very Strong Jet Stream
- Very Rich Moisture
- Somewhat Strong Cap (Allows only the strongest supercells to form)
- And a nearby storm system
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
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- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Starting to think Saturday could get pretty crazy in Dixie. I haven't paid as much attention to it as the plains setups but it looks to be uptrending.
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Boomer Sooner!
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Yeah and its a bit further East. My area could get some serious stuff again. I am just outside the risk zone on the day 4 outlook, I am north of it but I expect it will be expanded to include a much larger area tomorrow.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- Iceresistance
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
6z CFSv2 Model
Friday's event
Surface-Based CAPE
Next Tuesday's Potential
Surface-Based CAPE
Friday's event
Surface-Based CAPE
Next Tuesday's Potential
Surface-Based CAPE
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8931
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
I found this uncontaminated sounding on the 18z GFS model near Tecumseh, OK at +54 hours . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Finally found out how to access the SREF sigtor probs (took me long enough ) Anyway, here it is for Friday (max is 90).
As for the upcoming Day 2 outlook, I think it's a toss up whether they upgrade to enhanced or not, leaning towards yes. CAM's are messy, but it's their max range so that will likely change as we get closer. Also I think there's a chance NE OK could get upgraded to a slight risk eventually.
Also want to mention there's a 60 contour for Sat. now as well.
As for the upcoming Day 2 outlook, I think it's a toss up whether they upgrade to enhanced or not, leaning towards yes. CAM's are messy, but it's their max range so that will likely change as we get closer. Also I think there's a chance NE OK could get upgraded to a slight risk eventually.
Also want to mention there's a 60 contour for Sat. now as well.
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Boomer Sooner!
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Slight risk extended into SW Oklahoma . . .
The Tornado threat is higher there . . .
Hail is the BIGGEST threat . . .
The Tornado threat is higher there . . .
Hail is the BIGGEST threat . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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