Beaufort, SC - 102º HEAT INDEX

[Stormsfury]

BEAUFORT PTSUNNY 86 81 dewpoint 84% SE10 30.11F HX 102
6HR MIN TEMP: 70; 6HR MAX TEMP: 86;

CHARLESTON APT MOSUNNY 85 71 63 S13 30.12F
6HR MIN TEMP: 71; 6HR MAX TEMP: 87; 6HR PCP: TRACE;

CHS Daily record high and 1º shy of the all-time November record...

[JCT777]

But what does this have to do with winter weather? j/k

I am guessing you too can't wait for the cooler weather to arrive.

[RNS]

that Dewpoint of 81F is high for any time of the year...but when you see that sort of thing in november...its unprecidented.

also...this type of heat was common in Nov 1990...which did show up in my ENSO analogs.

[PTrackerLA]

This is really getting ridiculous. It's Nov. 5 and the weatherbug is showing 88 degrees!!! This is the warmest fall I can remember in a long time!

[Anonymous]

We are jumping for joy here in northern Virginia: We are partly cloudy and 81 fun-loving degrees, with a 65 degree dewpoint and 12 to 25 mph south winds!!

We are really enjoying this beautiful weather!!!

I wish that darn cold front could just wait a week!!!

We are having a great time here in the Mid Atlantic!!!

-Nags Head Jeb

[StormCrazyIowan]

Holy samolians!! Can I trade? I just don't feel like being in clouds and cold again- 36° and probably ain't goin no higher!!

[Stormsfury]

But what does this have to do with winter weather? j/k

I am guessing you too can't wait for the cooler weather to arrive.

Oops.... I posted this in the wrong forum ... LOL

Let's see, I do enjoy warm weather, but this is absolutely ridiculous for this time of year. It's rare, but not unheard of seeing dewpoint rise to 80º here and there during the passage of a seabreeze front (and obviously with the SE wind, the flow is seabreeze related) ... The atmosphere is very juicy and a few areas of convection have fired off due to ... of all things, daytime heating ...

that Dewpoint of 81F is high for any time of the year...but when you see that sort of thing in november...its unprecidented.

also...this type of heat was common in Nov 1990...which did show up in my ENSO analogs.

Bingo. Believe me, I'm glad this setup isn't in the dead of summer ... talk about quite a large area of real estate that would experience 100º heat. I remember November 1990 quite well ...

Incidentally, CHS's 87º smashed the daily record of 84º set back in 1961 ... and missed the all-time November record of 88º by 1º.

[StormCrazyIowan]

Man, missed it by 1° ? I would have been steamed! (no pun intended, lol)

[RNS]

SF, do have the updated monthly indicies for solar flux...NAO...and PDO...

as far as the QBO is concerned, i think we will make the switch in january...

some of the more notable EN / west winters were...1977/78 (QBO went west in dec), 1982/83...1957/58...and 1994/95 (all of which may become analogs for JAN-MAR...depending on the QBO and the strength of any developing El nino)

some of the most notable weak El nino / E QBO winters...1976/77...and 1968/69. More severe cold than 77/78...however less snow. 1976/77 may serve as a very good analog for the december period:

500mb height in El Nino / East QBO december (using 12/76 and 12/68):

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/Composites/comp.pl?var=Geopotential+Height&level=500mb&mon1=12&mon2=12&iy=1976&iy=1968&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&labelcon=1&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=Custom&xlat1=0&xlat2=90&xlon1=-180&xlon2=0&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=1000mb&Submit=Create+Plot

this speaks for its self IMO...but in any case...we can see the tendency for strong high latitude blocking centered between greenland and iceland (the classic -NAO/blocking configuration). the very strong blocking forces an extreme southward displacement of the below normal height center across the great lakes...with similarly strong blocking noted in europe.

the above H5 map may indeed serve as a preview of december.

500mb height in JAN-MAR as El Nino continues to develop and the QBO shifts west (using...1978, 1983, 1958):

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/Composites/comp.pl?var=Geopotential+Height&level=500mb&mon1=1&mon2=3&iy=1978&iy=1983&iy=1958&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&iy=&ipos%5B1%5D=&ipos%5B2%5D=&ineg%5B1%5D=&ineg%5B2%5D=&timefile0=&tstype=0&timefile1=&value=&typeval=1&compval=1&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&labelcon=1&cint=&lowr=&highr=&proj=Custom&xlat1=0&xlat2=90&xlon1=-180&xlon2=0&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=1000mb&Submit=Create+Plot

below normal heights reamin in place across the SE us even in spite of strong overriding tendency for above normal heights across north america during moderate to strong El nino/s in the warm phase of the PDO. blocking shifts southward centered from hudsons bay eastward toward the mouth of labrador. (this type of blocking will not always qualify as a -NAO...however has the same general effect...keeping the below normal height center locked in the SE US)















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[Stormsfury]

The updated October NAO was -0.853 for October ...

I can't find specific numbers for the PDO but graphically here it is ...



Solar cycles -- not sure if this is the right link
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

Interestingly enough, the QBO indicies were released (manually I think and it's below -20 ... historically, QBO's greater than -20 do not make a complete reversal before February).

SF

[RNS]

Thanks SF,

that NAO value as not quite as low as what i was expecting...

PDO...it looks like we have once agan gone positive. which when we look at weak EN / East QBO decembers in the short term positive phase of the PDO occuring within the longer term pacific cold cycle we find a winter alot like 2002/03. and the increased tendency for a major east coast snow event.

as far as the QBO goes...thats what i was thinking because usually once the easterly phase peaks...it quickly reverses...whereas for the westerly phase...it is more of a gradual step-down. so IMO the actual value is probably around -18 or -19. it should be near neutral in january (east the first half of the month west the second half) and completely west by february. thus weak west or east QBO values of between +5.00 (west) to -5.00 (east) would be acceptable for analogging as they would be borderline values indicative of phase changes occuring in those particular months. in some cases there are always exceptions to these general rules.

now...the key thing here will be mid and late winter...if we can keep the PDO positive...el Nino is more likely to come on stronger and faster. add in the fact that we are in a short term warm cycle of the PDO within the longer term cold phase would argue for the greatest SSTA anomaly departures to be centered in the central and western pacific as they were last winter and at many times during the El nino events of the 1960s and 1970s. add in the westerly switch in the QBO and theres less of a chance for variability in the wester pattern. whcih because theres less variability...the storm track will likely be in line with more typical El nino conditions...running from the southern part of the country up the east coast or out to sea.

since the atlantic influence will override the pacific signal this winter... strong -NAO periods may telegraph the later development of major winter storms for the eastern part of the country...which are either followed by or preceeded by significant arctic outbreaks (ex...January 1978). supressors may be more common depending on just how much cold air gets invloved...the position of the 50/50 low (of there is one at that given time)... the relationship between the placement of surface high pressure and the track of the low and so on. too much to discuss for general speculation purposes.

remember...supressors will be favored if the PV is displaced very far to the south or if the 50/50 low is in an unfavorable position to allow surface low pressure to move up the east coast. on the other hand...if no blocking or 50/50 low is present, then there will not be anything to anchor high pressure in place over new england or quebec to sustain the cold air in a coastal situation...thus the I-95 cities deal w/ ice or rain.

i have heard much speculation that the NAO is overrated...ITS NOT. this factor is one of the most important factors in developing a pattern favorable to major east coast snow events. most of the events which occured last winter occured as the NAO was going positive from negative. it should be noted though that if it were not for the predeeding negative period...the storm systems would not have had much cold air to work with...nor have been supressed as far south before transitioning to the coast. thus much more rain events would have resulted.

[Stormsfury]

RNS, I found the solar flux indicies ... the highest all year occurred in October 2003 ... 1513 ... but WELL BELOW the 2001-2002 solar flux indices.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/solar.data

[RNS]

thanks SF, while its not thrilling...and is not normal for this point in the 11 year cycle (these were the highest values since DEC 02) its not as bad as what i was fearing it might have been based on the daily OBS which depicted flux values in excess of 2800.

BTW...RNS's winter outlook to be posted HERE ON S2K ONLY...late next week.

[ColdFront77]

Useful site: National Sources of Electromagnetic Radiation

[Stormsfury]

thanks SF, while its not thrilling...and is not normal for this point in the 11 year cycle (these were the highest values since DEC 02) its not as bad as what i was fearing it might have been based on the daily OBS which depicted flux values in excess of 2800.

BTW...RNS's winter outlook to be posted HERE ON S2K ONLY...late next week.

You're welcome, RNS ... and I'll be waiting to see it.

[Guest]

thanks SF, while its not thrilling...and is not normal for this point in the 11 year cycle (these were the highest values since DEC 02) its not as bad as what i was fearing it might have been based on the daily OBS which depicted flux values in excess of 2800.

BTW...RNS's winter outlook to be posted HERE ON S2K ONLY...late next week.

Great to hear RNS and let me give you my long overdo welcome to Storm2K and i especially do and aready am enjoying your post!!!! I cant wait to see your winter outlook!!!!

[RNS]

thanks king,

im hoping to have a modified version prepared by next friday or saturday (at the latest) which is short enough to post here. and yes, it favors alot of winter wx madness for most of the country in what i believe will be one of the most exciting winters of at least the past 10.

in short though (to get the wheels spinning...sort of...lol) this will not be a 1977/78...but should be more severe than 2000/01 and at least match 02/03 in some places...

[Guest]

thanks king,

im hoping to have a modified version prepared by next friday or saturday (at the latest) which is short enough to post here. and yes, it favors alot of winter wx madness for most of the country in what i believe will be one of the most exciting winters of at least the past 10.

in short though (to get the wheels spinning...sort of...lol) this will not be a 1977/78...but should be more severe than 2000/01 and at least match 02/03 in some places...

Hmmmmmmm..........So far from what you have said here i agree 100%...................Now im really wondering and waiting! So yes you have my wheels spinning which if you get the chance have a look at my outlook located in Storm2K weather central (which is the link below my Signature) which i will go into more if you like and as well you will see why im agreeing.......