Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Any other models show that?
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Any other models show that?
Other mesoscale models are similar to that
NAM 3km
WRF-NMM (0z)
WRF-ARW2 (0z)
WRF-ARW (0z)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
13z HRRR has the Bow Echo just South of I-40
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
13z HRRR has the Bow Echo just South of I-40
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Cloudy and cool (55F) up here in the slight risk. Not expecting much in terms of severe from this event but we should get a nice line of storms tonight.
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Boomer Sooner!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Weather Dude wrote:Cloudy and cool (55F) up here in the slight risk. Not expecting much in terms of severe from this event but we should get a nice line of storms tonight.
Same here except it's 60°F outside & somewhat humid . . . (Dew point of 49°F)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Iceresistance wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Cloudy and cool (55F) up here in the slight risk. Not expecting much in terms of severe from this event but we should get a nice line of storms tonight.
Same here except it's 60°F outside & somewhat humid . . . (Dew point of 49°F)
You might get that nasty squall some of the models are showing
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Boomer Sooner!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Weather Dude wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Weather Dude wrote:Cloudy and cool (55F) up here in the slight risk. Not expecting much in terms of severe from this event but we should get a nice line of storms tonight.
Same here except it's 60°F outside & somewhat humid . . . (Dew point of 49°F)
You might get that nasty squall some of the models are showing
Yeah, the HRRR model has been EXTREMELY consistent on the Squall line that is a Bow Echo.
This is the one I'm worried about . . . Very sharp bow line . . .
I've estimated that the wind from the strongest point in the bow to be between 80-100 mph on the 12z Run
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Enhanced risk extended into SW Oklahoma
30% HATCHED for Hail in SW Oklahoma
30% HATCHED for Hail in SW Oklahoma
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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- Posts: 8932
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Mesoscale Discussion #405
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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- Posts: 8932
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Tomorrow's outlook upgraded to Enhanced, 10% Hatched area of Tornadoes in Southern Alabama & SE Georgia
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #98 for Central & Northern Texas, & Southern Oklahoma . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Mesoscale Discussion #406, a Tornado Watch is possible in NW Texas, AND a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible in SW & Central Oklahoma
Mesoscale Discussion #407, Tornado Watch very possible for SE Texas & Western Louisiana
Mesoscale Discussion #407, Tornado Watch very possible for SE Texas & Western Louisiana
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Tomorrow may become a moderate. Most likely in southeast Alabama.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Got some clearing here for a bit, which was unexpected. Clouds starting to move back in though. Should get some non severe storms this afternoon before the main event late tonight
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Wow the CAMs uptrended big time for tomorrow. Probably explains the big 10 hatched tor area upgrade. Would not be surprised to see a moderate tomorrow if that trend continues.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
12z Euro downtrended a bit for Tuesday, but also shows the system moving so slow that the eastern parts of the Day 5 slight risk actually won't get anything until Wednesday. That's what TSA mentioned in their AFD earlier today as well so it's starting to look like that might be a possible scenario.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Tornado Watch #99 for SE Texas & Western Louisiana . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Seems like the threat east of I-35 is being mitigated by a warm front that hasn't advanced as far as initially modeled in addition to the mess of convection in progress that was modeled. The tornado threat will likely increase into the evening but I think it would be moreso on the southern end of the convection... which is why the SPC added the 10% contour farther south and then east into LA.
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- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021
Tornado Watch #100 for NW Texas, SW Panhandle Texas, & SW Oklahoma
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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