WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

It's crazy that Surigae has a good chance in being the strongest TC in the worldwide for 2021... and it was only April.

[TyphoonNara]

It's crazy that Surigae has a good chance in being the strongest TC in the worldwide for 2021... and it was only April.

This sure is rare. The last time a pre-June typhoon taking the throne of the strongest TC worldwide is Typhoon Damrey in 2000 I think (155 knots in May).

[JW-_-]

EC 00z Not often do you see a weather system jog to the se @ that latitude. Al tho brief.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 230600Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55-65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND
RJTD AND RECENT ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES. TY 02W CONTINUES
TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TY 02W HAS BECOME FULLY ENVELOPED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT DEVELOPED AND APPROACHED THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. VERY
STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) INDUCED
BY FLOW AROUND THE ENVELOPING TROUGH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED STORM
STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TY
02W EXPOSED, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE NEAR-TERM AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PERSISTS AND THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEAN
WATER. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL
STRUCTURE, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING
BAROCLINIC SUPPORT THAT WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF NEAR-TERM WEAKENING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH REORIENTING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH, AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING, DEEP-
LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH. AROUND OR JUST
AFTER TAU 36, THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG FAR ENOUGH
EQUATORWARD TO DIRECTLY INTERACT WITH TY 02W. TRANSITION FROM A
SUBTROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE WILL OCCUR AS 02W MERGES WITH
THIS TROUGH, WITH FULL TRANSITION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. FAVORABLE
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND 02W WILL
AID STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELD AFTER TAU 36, RESULTING IN A
REINTENSIFICATION TO STORM FORCE (50 KNOTS) OR ABOVE. THE MAJORITY OF
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE FAVORS ACCELERATION
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN FOLLOWING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THIS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48,
AND DIVERGES A BIT THEREAFTER DUE TO DIFFERING RATES OF ACCELERATION.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL.//
NNNN

[JW-_-]

[Hayabusa]

Why did someone change the title to a tropical storm? I did not change the title, as of 06Z and 09Z by JTWC and JMA respectively it's still a typhoon.

02W SURIGAE 210423 0600 23.0N 129.2E WPAC 65 981

Issued at 2021/04/23 09:50 UTC
Analisys at 04/23 09 UTC
Category TY
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center Position N23°10′(23.2°)
E129°10′(129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE165km(90NM)
30-kt wind area WIDE330km(180NM)

[Hayabusa]

Now it's STS

TY2102(Surigae)
Issued at 2021/04/23 12:50 UTC
Analisys at 04/23 12 UTC
Category STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center Position N23°25′(23.4°)
E129°50′(129.8°)
Direction and speed of movement E 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE165km(90NM)
30-kt wind area WIDE330km(180NM)

[JW-_-]

Almost totally naked.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Good bye surigae. Please don't come over here as a cold core low. Or inject rossby waves.

[wxman57]

Not much "tropical" about Surigae today.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING
NR 041//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION, INTENSITY AND WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON A 231146Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS, WITH NEARLY FULL
COVERAGE OF THE SYSTEM. TY 02W CONTINUES TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, TS 02W HAS TRANSITIONED TO A SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE FEATURING
A RAPIDLY EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND DISPLACEMENT OF REMAINING
CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRIVEN BY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SYSTEM, EXCEEDS 30 KNOTS, AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
OVER AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST WIND RADII SIZES HAVE INCREASED BASED ON RECENT
EXPANSION AND MODEL GUIDANCE, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOW
EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE NEAR-TERM AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PERSISTS AND THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEAN
WATER. HOWEVER, THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE LIMITED AS INTERACTION
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDES
BAROCLINIC SUPPORT. TS 02W IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH REORIENTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, AND
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING, DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTH. AROUND OR JUST AFTER TAU 36, THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG FAR ENOUGH EQUATORWARD TO DIRECTLY INTERACT WITH TS
02W. TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE WILL
OCCUR AS 02W MERGES WITH THIS TROUGH, WITH FULL TRANSITION
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 48. FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND 02W WILL AID STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELD
AFTER TAU 36, RESULTING IN A REINTENSIFICATION TO STORM FORCE (50
KNOTS) OR ABOVE. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE FAVORS ACCELERATION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN FOLLOWING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AND DIVERGES A BIT THEREAFTER DUE TO
DIFFERING RATES OF ACCELERATION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL.//
NNNN

[Meow]

Now a subtropical storm from JTWC.

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE)
WARNING NR 042//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS VANISHED OVER THE CIRCULATION AS IT PASSES OVER A
COLD OCEANIC EDDY WITH COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24
DEGREES CELSIUS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND IS NOW
SUPERIMPOSING WITH SURIGAE'S CIRCULATION. THIS IS BRINGING ABOUT A
REDUCTION IN BAROCLINIC FORCING THAT IS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
CONTINUE DECAYING. A 231257Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 65 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STILL WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE WIND FIELD CONSISTS OF A SYMMETRIC CORE WITH A
GROWING ASYMMETRIC EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 60 KTS, ASSUMING THE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED SINCE THAT
TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS, ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. 02W HAS NOW BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON
ITS LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, ENTANGLEMENT WITH A COLD-CORE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH, AND INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED BY TAU 48. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. SS 02W (SURIGAE) WILL CONTINUE STEADILY WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT LOSES BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SUPERIMPOSING WITH THE CIRCULATION, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RETAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. AROUND 36 HOURS, A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE YELLOW SEA WILL APPROACH
SURIGAE, REINTRODUCING BAROCLINIC FORCING. THIS MAY STRENGTHEN AND
INTENSIFY THE WIND FIELD SLIGHTLY BY 48 HOURS, AND WILL ALSO BRING
ABOUT THE CONCLUSION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, PASSING NEAR IWO TO IN AROUND 48
HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, WITH SOME
SLIGHT VARIATION IN FORWARD SPEED. OVERALL, THIS FORECAST IS OF HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

(This is not a final warning.)

[Hayabusa]

Now a subtropical storm from JTWC.

https://i.imgur.com/tyEiHXW.gif

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE)
WARNING NR 042//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS VANISHED OVER THE CIRCULATION AS IT PASSES OVER A
COLD OCEANIC EDDY WITH COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24
DEGREES CELSIUS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND IS NOW
SUPERIMPOSING WITH SURIGAE'S CIRCULATION. THIS IS BRINGING ABOUT A
REDUCTION IN BAROCLINIC FORCING THAT IS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
CONTINUE DECAYING. A 231257Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 65 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STILL WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE WIND FIELD CONSISTS OF A SYMMETRIC CORE WITH A
GROWING ASYMMETRIC EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 60 KTS, ASSUMING THE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED SINCE THAT
TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS, ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. 02W HAS NOW BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON
ITS LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, ENTANGLEMENT WITH A COLD-CORE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH, AND INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED BY TAU 48. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. SS 02W (SURIGAE) WILL CONTINUE STEADILY WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT LOSES BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SUPERIMPOSING WITH THE CIRCULATION, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RETAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. AROUND 36 HOURS, A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE YELLOW SEA WILL APPROACH
SURIGAE, REINTRODUCING BAROCLINIC FORCING. THIS MAY STRENGTHEN AND
INTENSIFY THE WIND FIELD SLIGHTLY BY 48 HOURS, AND WILL ALSO BRING
ABOUT THE CONCLUSION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, PASSING NEAR IWO TO IN AROUND 48
HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, WITH SOME
SLIGHT VARIATION IN FORWARD SPEED. OVERALL, THIS FORECAST IS OF HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

(This is not a final warning.)

Is this a first? I have never seen them issuing a warning for a subtropical system in this basin or this is a first for all basins they cover?

[Iceresistance]

Now a subtropical storm from JTWC.

https://i.imgur.com/tyEiHXW.gif

WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE)
WARNING NR 042//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS VANISHED OVER THE CIRCULATION AS IT PASSES OVER A
COLD OCEANIC EDDY WITH COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24
DEGREES CELSIUS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND IS NOW
SUPERIMPOSING WITH SURIGAE'S CIRCULATION. THIS IS BRINGING ABOUT A
REDUCTION IN BAROCLINIC FORCING THAT IS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
CONTINUE DECAYING. A 231257Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 65 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STILL WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE WIND FIELD CONSISTS OF A SYMMETRIC CORE WITH A
GROWING ASYMMETRIC EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO WARM
ADVECTION AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 60 KTS, ASSUMING THE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED SINCE THAT
TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS, ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. 02W HAS NOW BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON
ITS LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, ENTANGLEMENT WITH A COLD-CORE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH, AND INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED BY TAU 48. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. SS 02W (SURIGAE) WILL CONTINUE STEADILY WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT LOSES BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SUPERIMPOSING WITH THE CIRCULATION, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RETAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS. AROUND 36 HOURS, A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE YELLOW SEA WILL APPROACH
SURIGAE, REINTRODUCING BAROCLINIC FORCING. THIS MAY STRENGTHEN AND
INTENSIFY THE WIND FIELD SLIGHTLY BY 48 HOURS, AND WILL ALSO BRING
ABOUT THE CONCLUSION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, PASSING NEAR IWO TO IN AROUND 48
HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, WITH SOME
SLIGHT VARIATION IN FORWARD SPEED. OVERALL, THIS FORECAST IS OF HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

(This is not a final warning.)

Is this a first? I have never seen them issuing a warning for a subtropical system in this basin or this is a first for all basins they cover?

They issued a warning on SS Sepat in 2019

[Hayabusa]

Now a subtropical storm from JTWC.

https://i.imgur.com/tyEiHXW.gif



(This is not a final warning.)

Is this a first? I have never seen them issuing a warning for a subtropical system in this basin or this is a first for all basins they cover?

They issued a warning on SS Sepat in 2019

What I mean an actual JTWC warning, like Surigae. I remember Sepat was just being issued JTWC advisories like an invest.

[Iceresistance]

Is this a first? I have never seen them issuing a warning for a subtropical system in this basin or this is a first for all basins they cover?

They issued a warning on SS Sepat in 2019

What I mean an actual JTWC warning, like Surigae. I remember Sepat was just being issued JTWC advisories like an invest.

Lionrock in 2016? It had Sub-Tropical origins . . .

[JW-_-]

Looks much more extra-topical in appearance to me, with that shear axis.




Also cant see more thunderstorms are developing around the storm center on vapor sat as you usually do with a subtropical system.



Jaxa GSM

[JW-_-]

18z EC cranks it up again as a powerful extra-tropical system.


Be some big ground swells with that NE and SW pressure gradient if this does verify.

That's it for me. Been a corker of a system to follow.

[Meow]

They issued a warning on SS Sepat in 2019

What I mean an actual JTWC warning, like Surigae. I remember Sepat was just being issued JTWC advisories like an invest.

Lionrock in 2016? It had Sub-Tropical origins . . .

Surigae should be the first I can remember to be issued standard warnings as SS from JTWC.

[JW-_-]

Junk atm The balancing is well truly and over.