Texas Spring 2021
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Looks like that is about it for DFW as storms are starting to push off to the east. Maybe that line of storms that is coming together up in Oklahoma will dip down to clip us later tonight. Some localized very heavy rain but a lot of areas picked up very little.
I can't remember the last time we had an April that didn't see at least a couple of big MCS pushing across DFW. Maybe in May?
I can't remember the last time we had an April that didn't see at least a couple of big MCS pushing across DFW. Maybe in May?
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- jasons2k
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
That supercell SE of San Antonio is a right-turner and looks very intense. Needs to be closely monitored.
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- storm_in_a_teacup
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Did the middle part of the dry line just not form storms? I thought something would be hitting Houston around now but there seems to be almost nothing.
EDIT: unless the previous post meant the supercell being a right turner mean it’s heading to Houston? I don’t know much about this stuff.
EDIT: unless the previous post meant the supercell being a right turner mean it’s heading to Houston? I don’t know much about this stuff.
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I know I can't straddle the atmosphere...just a tiny storm in your teacup, girl.
- storm_in_a_teacup
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Never mind I looked at the radar and there definitely is a supercell sneaking up on us. And of course it had to happen when all the stuff from the flooded garage has been sitting under tarps in our yard
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I know I can't straddle the atmosphere...just a tiny storm in your teacup, girl.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
It would be a great start to May if the 12z GFS were to verify for Texas
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Flow next week looks like it may be more meridional. This will limit an outbreak but very good at rainmaking.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Ntxw wrote:Flow next week looks like it may be more meridional. This will limit an outbreak but very good at rainmaking.
And return flow has already started, so there should be rich deep moisture in place across most of Texas next week.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:Flow next week looks like it may be more meridional. This will limit an outbreak but very good at rainmaking.
And return flow has already started, so there should be rich deep moisture in place across most of Texas next week.
https://i.ibb.co/98Lh17z/gfs-mslp-pwata-epac-fh0-168.gif
Great pattern for drought busting.
SOI values for 25 Apr, 2021
Average SOI for last 30 days 0.20
Average SOI for last 90 days 4.43
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -13.27
Average SOI for last 30 days 0.20
Average SOI for last 90 days 4.43
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -13.27
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Ntxw wrote:Flow next week looks like it may be more meridional. This will limit an outbreak but very good at rainmaking.
Do you think SE Texas will see anything? I’m located about one hour southwest of Houston.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Video from Live Storms Media from the first Tornado near Vernon, TX
Link: https://youtu.be/OWN2JrpYxsw
Link: https://youtu.be/OWN2JrpYxsw
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
Double Trouble Slight risks Today & Tomorrow!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
A very wet end for April if the 12z HRRR verifies . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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- Category 5
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Re: Texas Spring 2021
HRRR cuts off the rainfall rather quickly, with eastern DFW getting much less. Doesn't seem to match other expectations.
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- Iceresistance
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Observation at Tecumseh, OK
Time: 10:35 AM CDT or 1525z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 70°F
Dew Point: 64°F
Relative Humidity: 81%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.70 InHg or 1007 MB
Watches & Warnings: None
Time: 10:35 AM CDT or 1525z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 70°F
Dew Point: 64°F
Relative Humidity: 81%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.70 InHg or 1007 MB
Watches & Warnings: None
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Spring 2021
rwfromkansas wrote:HRRR cuts off the rainfall rather quickly, with eastern DFW getting much less. Doesn't seem to match other expectations.
Don't put much stock in the HRRR beyond 6 - 12 hrs. The NAMs & other hi-res are better for the 1st 36 - 48hrs.
Also, models are coming very close to breaking the cap across DFW this afternoon. Any storm that can break through would have the potential to quickly go svr. FWD thinks the cap will hold, by the way.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Spring 2021
- Observation in Tecumseh, OK
Time: 11 AM CDT or 1600z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 70°F
Dew Point: 64°F
Relative Humidity: 82%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.75 InHg or 1007.5 MB
Watches & Warnings:
Flood Watch until Thursday Morning
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Spring 2021
Noon Observation in Tecumseh, OK
Time: 12 PM CDT or 1700z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 71°F
Dew Point: 65°F
Relative Humidity: 80%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.76 InHg or 1008 MB
Watches & Warnings:
Flood Watch until Thursday Morning
Time: 12 PM CDT or 1700z
Current Conditions: Cloudy
Temperature: 71°F
Dew Point: 65°F
Relative Humidity: 80%
Wind: S at 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph
Pressure: 29.76 InHg or 1008 MB
Watches & Warnings:
Flood Watch until Thursday Morning
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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