2021 WPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Got 41.4 ACE units.

[rileydoxsee98]

Is anyone able to tell me which WPAC seasons had 40+ ACE before May 1st? Which years were they? I’m trying to compare to get an ideal what this season could be like and I know it’s early and that doesn’t really have any indication of what the peak season will be like but it is nice to see how other seasons with 40+ ACE at this point ended up. I’d appreciate it a lot. Thanks.

Here's what I have.

https://i.imgur.com/TCjdLWw.png

Thank you very much. Much appreciated.

[euro6208]

GFS still sniffing out some activity long range.

12z



18z

[Kingarabian]

Is anyone able to tell me which WPAC seasons had 40+ ACE before May 1st? Which years were they? I’m trying to compare to get an ideal what this season could be like and I know it’s early and that doesn’t really have any indication of what the peak season will be like but it is nice to see how other seasons with 40+ ACE at this point ended up. I’d appreciate it a lot. Thanks.

Here's what I have.

https://i.imgur.com/TCjdLWw.png

The top 15 years found on this list for the highest WPAC ACE before May 1st, are mainly average or above average typhoon seasons. Only 2 seasons in this list were below average typhoon seasons. So I would say there's a very high chance for an active typhoon season this year.

In regards to the EPAC, high WPAC ACE before May 1st shows a little less correlation for an active EPAC season, with only 10 of those 15 years ending above average.

[euro6208]

950 mb typhoon in the Philippine Sea, 00z GFS.

06z back to square one, 1001 mb system entering the Philippine Sea.

[mrbagyo]

18z (330+ hrs fantasy range) has a recurving TC west of Southern Luzon.

[Hayabusa]

Here's another one in graph form using JTWC best track data, though some years have total ACE values (from my calculations) that are noticeably different compared to the sites (this and this) that track ACE (e.g. 2019).

[euro6208]

GFS very optimistic on development in the middle part of May.

[Hayabusa]

00Z GFS first run developing a TC below the fantasy range.

[euro6208]

GFS has a 976 mb typhoon making landfall over Southern Visayas in 234 hours with development in 180 hours.

[euro6208]

Long range GFS still eyeing on development near the Marianas the middle part of May.

[euro6208]

Like 00z, 06z develops the area south of Guam into a significant tropical cyclone.

[euro6208]

CMC and ICON tracks the same vorticity but doesn't strengthen it at all.

[Iceresistance]

CMC and ICON tracks the same vorticity but doesn't strengthen it at all.

The next system (Choi-wan) is probably tracked by the 2 models over the Cold Water Trail left behind by Surigae . . .

[mrbagyo]

no convection atm but the rotation is still there (just SE of Chuuk)

[euro6208]

Most of the deep convection has slipped to the south of Eastern
Micronesia, or at least south of Pohnpei, Kosrae and Majuro. This
is expected to change over the next couple of days as a disturbance
south of Chuuk and Pohnpei starts to develop. The GFS extends a
trough out from the disturbance which gradually moves north. Coming
from the south the way it is, it reaches Kosrae first around Thursday
then Pohnpei and Majuro on Friday. Right now the satellite images do
not look particularly great, so this could get pushed back. However,
the ECMWF has a similar forecast, but paints it as an area of trade-
wind convergence. This is still quite possible, so did not make any
major changes to weather at this time.

he eventual forecast for Western Micronesia will depend even more on
what that disturbance south of Chuuk does. The GFS moves it almost
straight west, keeping it close to the equator. The ECMWF is similar,
at least through day 5. The disturbance looks like it will be far
enough south, winds should remain gentle to moderate and showers will
just be scattered, at the forecast locations. Also, this will mainly
be for Chuuk. Any enhancements to showers near Palau and Yap would be
yet in the future.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1387269815681888259

[euro6208]

GFS delays the intensification until after it crosses the Philippines and into the SCS. Has a typhoon for Vietnam.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

JMA 200 hPa VP has rising air returning late first week to second week of May.