Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1041 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Apr 27, 2021 5:57 pm

5 PM Observation at Tecumseh, OK is the same as at 4 PM
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1042 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:32 pm

Well regardless of whatever happens during the rest of the night, today has been yet another example of why you don't mess around with slight risks. Really fortunate that all the tornadoes stayed over open fields, both in TX and CO, especially the strong/violent wedge in TX. Wind/hail should be the main risks for the remainder of the event, although some QLCS spin ups are always a possibility.

Tomorrow could be interesting, but the real concern will be the flooding. I think an expansion of the slight risk to the NE is possible, and I wouldn't rule out an upgrade to enhanced for parts of TX, but we'll see what happens.

Looking ahead, models and SPC are hinting at the next potential severe event moving through next week. Obviously pretty far out for specifics, although I am wondering if this will be the one influenced by Surigae. Anyone here that knows more than me know if it is? Either way, the MJO is in a much more favorable phase now, so any system coming through will need to be watched very closely.

April 2021's tornado count was certainly WELL below average, but there were a couple of big severe events scattered throughout the month. Unless something crazy happens in the next few days, April 2021 is set to join April 2016 as the only Aprils since at least 2002 (SPC started individual hazard risks in 2003) without at least one 15 hatched tornado risk day (I went back and looked and apparently 4/26/16 was only a 10 hatched) so this is certainly some rare territory.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1043 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:20 am

Heads up Ice you've got a confirmed tor to your south... If you're even still awake... Moving N
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1044 Postby Brent » Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:20 am

Looks like a tornado occurred east of Paul's Valley it's embedded in this rain mass
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1045 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:37 am

Warning has been cancelled for now
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1046 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:50 am

Hi! I DID NOT KNOW that a tornado existed near Pauls Valley, I know someone living there, I'll go & Email him to see if he is okay . . .

I slept through ALL of the storms!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1047 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:02 am

5 AM Observation

Time: 5 AM CDT or 1000z

Current Conditions: Rain with Lightning & Thunder
Temperature: 67ºF
Dew Point: 66ºF
Relative Humidity: 96%
Wind: South at 8 mph
Pressure: 29.80 inHg or 1009 MB

Watches & Warnings:
Flood Watch until 7 AM Thursday Morning
Flood Warning until 5:24 AM on May 4th, 2021 or Canceled . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1048 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:07 am

Pecos Hank went to NW Texas for Tornadoes, & he was so glad he got there!

[youtube]https://youtu.be/WwPj-xjuJ6o[/youtube]
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1049 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:15 am

MODERATE risk of Flooding in Eastern Oklahoma today . . .

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1050 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:24 am

Severe Weather outbreak Take 2 . . .


Image

Also want to mention a Slight Risk for NW Pennsylvania, SW New York, & NE Ohio . ..
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1051 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:09 am

This was moderate risk worthy
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1052 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:20 am

Discrete cell with hook headed towards dallas texas
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1053 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:21 am

IT HAS VERY STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS WELL
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1054 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:25 am

Rotation is tightening anyone in dallas please get ready to take shelter now. This storm is headed towards the Dallas metro area. North Fort worth, Lousville watch out
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1055 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:29 am

That Storm that is heading for DFW is a Bow Echo with with a Hook . . . :eek:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1056 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:30 am

[imgur]file:///home/chronos/u-d083857af04eac072d0237f7c3afb716eead3588/MyFiles/Downloads/Screenshot%202021-04-28%208.29.31%20AM.png[/imgur]
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1057 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:32 am

Tornado warning has been issued with this storm! Take shelter
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Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1058 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:38 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:[url]file:///home/chronos/u-d083857af04eac072d0237f7c3afb716eead3588/MyFiles/Downloads/Screenshot%202021-04-28%208.29.31%20AM.png[/url]


Image did not work somehow

(I tried fixing it, & it crashed my Chromebook for a few minutes!)

Also needs to be processed by GIF uploader sites like Gifyu & Imgur . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1059 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:10 am

Enhanced risk added for hail in TX
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1060 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:45 am

I did managed to talk the one who lives in Pauls Valley, he said he was woken up by Tornado Sirens at around Midnight, he is doing very fine though (He goes to the same school I go to as a Teacher, but I'm not the Teacher! He is!)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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