Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[ElectricStorm]

Gotta start watching the May 3-5 timeframe for the next potential severe event moving through. SPC is already hinting at it, and it's possible we may see a highlighted area within the next few days.
0z GFS


This is the 12z Euro run from earlier for the same timeframe


The Euro moves the system through the Plains a day later than the GFS does. Considering the GFS's performance over the last few events, I'm siding with the Euro for now.

Here's the last part of today's AFD from TSA:
"The next wave quickly follows the Sunday system with shower and
storm chances increasing again Monday into Tuesday. Exact timing
remains uncertain but the idea of increasing storm chances and
likely some severe weather threat remains a consistent forecast
message for early next week."

TSA is generally pretty conservative when calling for severe weather several days out, so them being a bit more bullish this time is a little concerning. Again, something to watch out for.

[Iceresistance]

WOW! There was a MONSTROUS Supercell that barely missed me last night!

Baseball to Softball sized hail in Norman, hurricane force winds in Bridge Creek & Wind damage in Shawnee . . .


There has been a Concussion head injury from hail in Norman from the Baseball sized hail, when was the last something like that happened?

[Iceresistance]

Day 4 is a Dixie Alley Event, Day 5 is from another storm & severe weather in the Southern Plains

[Iceresistance]

9z SREF is hinting potential on May 2nd in Kansas . . .


Odds of CAPE ≥1000 at +87 hours, still a long ways out, but May is coming . . .

[ElectricStorm]

WOW! There was a MONSTROUS Supercell that barely missed me last night!

Baseball to Softball sized hail in Norman, hurricane force winds in Bridge Creek & Wind damage in Shawnee . . .


There has been a Concussion head injury from hail in Norman from the Baseball sized hail, when was the last something like that happened?

I have relatives in Norman and they had tennis balls at their place. No injuries though so that's good. Hopefully whoever got nailed will be okay. That's an example why the new warning system will be great as that storm would have prompted the emergency alert on phones...

[AnnularCane]

I got hail with a thunderstorm a couple summers or so ago, and was only about pea-sized, I think, or maybe a bit larger. Even so, it made quite a racket clattering on the roof. I can't even begin to imagine what baseball or softball sized hail must sound like.

[Iceresistance]

I got hail with a thunderstorm a couple summers or so ago, and was only about pea-sized, I think, or maybe a bit larger. Even so, it made quite a racket clattering on the roof. I can't even begin to imagine what baseball or softball sized hail must sound like.

I had Nickel sized hail a few weeks ago, it sounding like marbles smacking the roof!

This video is from Orange County, AL from a Tropical Supercell with GIANT hail on April 10, 2021

[youtube]https://youtu.be/nAeu4INgp3c[/youtube]

At 20 seconds in is what Baseball sized hail sounds like

[Iceresistance]

I've noticed something very odd with the Supercells last night . . .


San Antonio Supercell: Threatened with Baseball sized hail & misses to the north, pounding Suburban Cities & Lackland AFB . . .

DFW Supercell: Threatened Fort Worth with up to Softball sized hail, misses to the north, but pounded Keller, TX & Other Suburban Cities with the big hail

OKC Supercell: Threatened the OKC Metro with up to Softball sized hail & 80 mph winds, but misses to the South & Plummeted Norman, OK

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS Mean SCP at +108 hours . . .

[Ntxw]

I've noticed something very odd with the Supercells last night . . .


San Antonio Supercell: Threatened with Baseball sized hail & misses to the north, pounding Suburban Cities & Lackland AFB . . .

DFW Supercell: Threatened Fort Worth with up to Softball sized hail, misses to the north, but pounded Keller, TX & Other Suburban Cities with the big hail

OKC Supercell: Threatened the OKC Metro with up to Softball sized hail & 80 mph winds, but misses to the South & Plummeted Norman, OK

It's luck and chance. While bad, affected areas is a relatively small region and odds for any one locale is low. 2010-2016 period saw several destructive hail storms hit the inner urban areas of the same major cities. Northern Dallas county alone 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2016 saw some expensive big hail storms.

Relatively speaking we're running below normal in terms of temps and severe weather for April.

[Iceresistance]

Video of the Norman Hailstorm

[youtube]https://youtu.be/9yEqhG5sa34[/youtube]

[ElectricStorm]

Models are all over the place for Sunday, so it'll be interesting to see what ends up happening there. Monday is looking pretty dangerous, especially if the Euro solution verifies. E TX looks like the bullseye for now but of course it's still several days out so a lot can change. Central and E OK will likely get something as well.

[Iceresistance]

Models are all over the place for Sunday, so it'll be interesting to see what ends up happening there. Monday is looking pretty dangerous, especially if the Euro solution verifies. E TX looks like the bullseye for now but of course it's still several days out so a lot can change. Central and E OK will likely get something as well.

What is the Euro showing?

Also, 15z SREF has a higher chance for severe weather (Over 75% chance of ≥1000 CAPE) in Kansas, Northern Missouri, Southern Iowa, & into Western Illinois Sunday . . .

[Iceresistance]

This was SCARY for Brett Adair in Downtown Norman . . .

[youtube]https://youtu.be/CQoLyDO4yFI[/youtube]

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I got hail with a thunderstorm a couple summers or so ago, and was only about pea-sized, I think, or maybe a bit larger. Even so, it made quite a racket clattering on the roof. I can't even begin to imagine what baseball or softball sized hail must sound like.

I had Nickel sized hail a few weeks ago, it sounding like marbles smacking the roof!

This video is from Orange County, AL from a Tropical Supercell with GIANT hail on April 10, 2021

https://youtu.be/nAeu4INgp3c

At 20 seconds in is what Baseball sized hail sounds like

Tropical supercells are a thing? I thought they were only a mid latitude thing

[Iceresistance]

I got hail with a thunderstorm a couple summers or so ago, and was only about pea-sized, I think, or maybe a bit larger. Even so, it made quite a racket clattering on the roof. I can't even begin to imagine what baseball or softball sized hail must sound like.

I had Nickel sized hail a few weeks ago, it sounding like marbles smacking the roof!

This video is from Orange County, AL from a Tropical Supercell with GIANT hail on April 10, 2021

https://youtu.be/nAeu4INgp3c

At 20 seconds in is what Baseball sized hail sounds like

Tropical supercells are a thing? I thought they were only a mid latitude thing

Yes, even though they are rare, this monster supercell literally came out of the Gulf of Mexico!

[Iceresistance]

+294 hours, GEFS Ensemble Member #13 may be in the fantasy range, but Holy Crap . . .




Member #19 is also very aggressive . . .

[ElectricStorm]

The 0z GFS has trended a bit towards the Euro in terms of perhaps better parameters further north of the current highlighted area for Monday. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets expanded north in the next few outlooks. E TX looks to be the bullseye but OK might get some action as well. We'll have to see what ends up happening in terms of cloud cover and the cap but Monday's looking pretty dangerous, especially for large hail. 

[Iceresistance]

The 0z GFS has trended a bit towards the Euro in terms of perhaps better parameters further north of the current highlighted area for Monday. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets expanded north in the next few outlooks. E TX looks to be the bullseye but OK might get some action as well. We'll have to see what ends up happening in terms of cloud cover and the cap but Monday's looking pretty dangerous, especially for large hail. 

Well, Monday IS looking dangerous! Bulls-eye in NE Oklahoma . . .

[Iceresistance]

I found this sounding over Tecumseh, OK at +90 hours . . .