Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1101 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:44 am

May 3rd is going to be bad. NAM shows a very widespread area larger than the state of Texas over 2000 J/Kg Cape for the 12z run at hour 81.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1102 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:47 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:May 3rd is going to be bad. NAM shows a very widespread area larger than the state of Texas over 2000 J/Kg Cape for the 12z run at hour 81.


Also want to mention that the 9z SREF has this on ≥ 3000 CAPE chances at +87 hours . . .

Image
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1103 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:54 am

InfernoFlameCat wrote:May 3rd is going to be bad. NAM shows a very widespread area larger than the state of Texas over 2000 J/Kg Cape for the 12z run at hour 81.

Forgot to say that in the previous post, but I TRULY hope that this is not a 1999 Repeat! :eek:
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1104 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:59 am

Iceresistance wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:May 3rd is going to be bad. NAM shows a very widespread area larger than the state of Texas over 2000 J/Kg Cape for the 12z run at hour 81.

Forgot to say that in the previous post, but I TRULY hope that this is not a 1999 Repeat! :eek:

No way this will be a 1999 repeat... That being said, it's starting to look pretty concerning for a significant event...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1105 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:10 am

Truscott, TX tornado has been rated EF3. Paul's Valley rated EF1
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1106 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:30 am

There is going to be a massive warm sector ahead of the line so we could get a massive outbreak in the dixie alley
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1107 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:11 pm

12z Euro is just downright dangerous for Monday... Dews close to 70 up here, and the timing looks to follow the highlighted SPC outlook... Can't see CAPE or soundings as I don't have the paid subscription. It's supposed to rain Sunday across the area, so cloud cover may be a concern for Monday but other than that it's gonna be one to pay attention to...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1108 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:57 pm

Weather Dude wrote:12z Euro is just downright dangerous for Monday... Dews close to 70 up here, and the timing looks to follow the highlighted SPC outlook... Can't see CAPE or soundings as I don't have the paid subscription. It's supposed to rain Sunday across the area, so cloud cover may be a concern for Monday but other than that it's gonna be one to pay attention to...

Windy.com has the Euro model for CAPE

CAPE Levels in Oklahoma

Tulsa
Image

Tecumseh, OK
Image

Dew point
Tulsa
Image

Tecumseh, OK
Image
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1109 Postby Iceresistance » Sat May 01, 2021 10:35 am

Broad Slight risk from Eastern Oklahoma to the Mississippi & Ohio River Valleys, likely going to be shifted eastward . . .

Image

And the most dangerous month in the Southern Plains has begun: May
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1110 Postby Iceresistance » Sat May 01, 2021 10:38 am

Tomorrow looks potent in the western side of Dixie Alley . . .

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1111 Postby Iceresistance » Sat May 01, 2021 3:09 pm

Double Slight risks Tomorrow, one in Tornado Alley & the other in Dixie Alley

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1112 Postby Iceresistance » Sat May 01, 2021 8:34 pm

This does not look good for May . . .

Image

Aggiecutter first mentioned it in the Texas Spring 2021 forum
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1113 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat May 01, 2021 9:11 pm

Iceresistance wrote:This does not look good for May . . .

https://i.ibb.co/M1xDn9n/weather.jpg

Aggiecutter first mentioned it in the Texas Spring 2021 forum

Yeah the week if May 10 looks like it'll be one to watch...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1114 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun May 02, 2021 8:47 am

SPC mentions higher probs possible for Day 2. These sleeper events can end up pretty potent sometimes so we'll have to see what happens...
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1115 Postby Iceresistance » Sun May 02, 2021 1:14 pm

Upgraded to Enhanced in Kansas

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1116 Postby Iceresistance » Sun May 02, 2021 1:17 pm

Weather Dude wrote:SPC mentions higher probs possible for Day 2. These sleeper events can end up pretty potent sometimes so we'll have to see what happens...


Now I'm under the slight risk again! Lol

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1117 Postby Iceresistance » Sun May 02, 2021 1:20 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:This does not look good for May . . .

https://i.ibb.co/M1xDn9n/weather.jpg

Aggiecutter first mentioned it in the Texas Spring 2021 forum

Yeah the week if May 10 looks like it'll be one to watch...


Oh no, not a 5/10/2010 repeat!

That day was extremely scary for me . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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ElectricStorm
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1118 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun May 02, 2021 1:55 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:This does not look good for May . . .

https://i.ibb.co/M1xDn9n/weather.jpg

Aggiecutter first mentioned it in the Texas Spring 2021 forum

Yeah the week if May 10 looks like it'll be one to watch...


Oh no, not a 5/10/2010 repeat!

That day was extremely scary for me . . .

There's no way it's gonna be another 5/10/10 repeat lol
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1119 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun May 02, 2021 4:18 pm

What a beautiful low. Well defined MCS over the Dixie alley.
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Re: Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

#1120 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun May 02, 2021 5:45 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Bold prediction time: The biggest southern and central Plains outbreak of the year will happen between 4/25 and 5/10...

I'm gonna revise this to the second week of May, so around the 5/8 to 5/15 period. The MJO took longer to get into Phase 8 then expected so the time it will be in the favorable phases will be pushed back a bit so I'm including a few more days. Both GFS and Euro are hinting at a possible severe event in that timeframe as well.
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