Texas Spring 2021

[cheezyWXguy]

Short term models show almost 6000j/kg this evening. These storms could explode from nothing to severe in less than 30 minutes.

[FormerNewtotex]

Could be an unpleasant surprise for the metroplex if things go right. Timing is pretty good for overperform peak hours, it's hot, and dews are up there around 70. Front will break the cap. Wind profiles aren't great for tors but hail parameters up there.

**Not saying this will happen**

But, didn't the Jarrell tornado in 1997 form under similar conditions? High Cape/DP but low wind profiles? That's part of why it moved so slow I believe

[gpsnowman]

Could be an unpleasant surprise for the metroplex if things go right. Timing is pretty good for overperform peak hours, it's hot, and dews are up there around 70. Front will break the cap. Wind profiles aren't great for tors but hail parameters up there.

I've got a funny feeling about tonight. Nothing to really prove anything other than observations. The sky looks different with all the heat and humidity, similar to other severe nights we have around here. Steve McCauley does mention the potential of the cap eroding just in time for evening storms. Things are shifting west as far as the severe potential goes and has me worried a bit In 2013 the sky had a similar look to it and a mini tornado outbreak happened one day. Never really a true blue sky but the sun was bright with some hot weather with high dews. Again, just an observation on my part and is no way a forecast by any means.

[Ntxw]

Could be an unpleasant surprise for the metroplex if things go right. Timing is pretty good for overperform peak hours, it's hot, and dews are up there around 70. Front will break the cap. Wind profiles aren't great for tors but hail parameters up there.

I've got a funny feeling about tonight. Nothing to really prove anything other than observations. The sky looks different with all the heat and humidity, similar to other severe nights we have around here. Steve McCauley does mention the potential of the cap eroding just in time for evening storms. Things are shifting west as far as the severe potential goes and has me worried a bit In 2013 the sky had a similar look to it and a mini tornado outbreak happened one day. Never really a true blue sky but the sun was bright with some hot weather with high dews. Again, just an observation on my part and is no way a forecast by any means.

Yeah I know what you mean "tornado feel kind of day". One of the things going for it is being in the early initiation since they won't congeal yet into a line, always dangerous.

[gpsnowman]

Could be an unpleasant surprise for the metroplex if things go right. Timing is pretty good for overperform peak hours, it's hot, and dews are up there around 70. Front will break the cap. Wind profiles aren't great for tors but hail parameters up there.

I've got a funny feeling about tonight. Nothing to really prove anything other than observations. The sky looks different with all the heat and humidity, similar to other severe nights we have around here. Steve McCauley does mention the potential of the cap eroding just in time for evening storms. Things are shifting west as far as the severe potential goes and has me worried a bit. In 2013 the sky had a similar look to it and a mini tornado outbreak happened one day. Never really a true blue sky but the sun was bright with some hot weather with high dews. Again, just an observation on my part and is no way a forecast by any means.

[ElectricStorm]

The Dallas radar is down for me on Radarscope... If that continues, it may be though to track the storms tonight in that area.

[bubba hotep]

Hopefully we get a special balloon from FWD at 18z. Aircraft data does indicate that the cap is eroding.

[cheezyWXguy]

The Dallas radar is down for me on Radarscope... If that continues, it may be though to track the storms tonight in that area.

Great, now we know it’s gonna be a bad one if the radar’s not working, lol

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley just posted an update, might raise some eyebrows.

[ElectricStorm]

Latest HRRR is pretty concerning. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we see a moderate risk somewhere today

[WeatherP1]

The Dallas radar is down for me on Radarscope... If that continues, it may be though to track the storms tonight in that area.

Great, now we know it’s gonna be a bad one if the radar’s not working, lol

NWS FW mentioned on Twitter this morning of a bearing being replaced in the radar mount but they expect it operational by 3pm, before storm initiation.

[TarrantWx]

The Dallas radar is down for me on Radarscope... If that continues, it may be though to track the storms tonight in that area.

Great, now we know it’s gonna be a bad one if the radar’s not working, lol

NWS FW mentioned on Twitter this morning of a bearing being replaced in the radar mount but they expect it operational by 3pm, before storm initiation.

The radar is back in operation

[Ntxw]

FW recent discussion. It's always about timing.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
132 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible late this
afternoon into tonight. All North and Central Texas residents need
to stay weather aware today given the possibility of significant
severe weather. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving any
weather alerts, and have a plan in case you are in the path of
hazardous weather.

A rapid evolution of today and tonight`s forecast has taken place
within the last 24 hours. Minor changes in the timing of the
front and rapid moisture return have contributed to an increasing
potential for significant severe weather starting late this
afternoon. A cold front is now draped northeast to southwest from
near Bowie to Graham, slowly advancing to the southeast.
Meanwhile, dew points throughout the region have surged into the
lower 70s ahead of the front. At the moment, a stout capping
inversion is keeping convection from developing. This, however, is
expected to change in the next few hours. Radiational heating
will continue ahead of the front, leading to greater
destabilization across the region. CAMs continue to favor an area
around Stephenville for initial thunderstorm development, which
coincides with recent RAP analysis of a developing area of greater
moisture convergence.

An incoming shortwave, coupled with the surface front and a
pseudo-dryline will come together to produce explosive
thunderstorm development initially to the west/southwest of the
DFW Metroplex. Storms will then migrate eastward through North
Texas. Steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to CAPE values
exceeding 4000 J/kg which would translate to significantly large
hail. Deep layer shear and a strong southerly low-level flow will
also increase the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. The
overall tornado potential will depend on the evolution of the
storms across North Texas. If storms are able to remain discrete,
a greater tornado potential may develop in areas east of I-35 and
north of I-30.

An atypical setup this evening will also lead to a potential for
severe storms behind the front. Given continued steep lapse rates
and high amounts of instability, a few elevated supercells capable
of large hail will be possible across North Texas after around
10pm.

The main line of storms associated with the front will continue
moving to the southeast through the night, likely exiting our far
eastern and southeastern counties closer to sunrise Tuesday.
Cloudy skies will persist through much of tomorrow morning, but
should gradually disperse by tomorrow afternoon. In contrast with
today`s temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, tomorrow`s
highs will stay in the 80s across North Texas to mid 70s across
Central Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

Just dawned on me what today is...May 3.

Not that it means anything, but is a stark reminder of what storms can do on extremely rare occasions.

[WacoWx]

This potential event was not on my “radar” whatsoever until I saw upgrades on social media. That’s some pretty strong wording from the NWS.

[TheProfessor]

Could be an unpleasant surprise for the metroplex if things go right. Timing is pretty good for overperform peak hours, it's hot, and dews are up there around 70. Front will break the cap. Wind profiles aren't great for tors but hail parameters up there.

**Not saying this will happen**

But, didn't the Jarrell tornado in 1997 form under similar conditions? High Cape/DP but low wind profiles? That's part of why it moved so slow I believe

The 1997 Central, Texas tornado outbreak was a very rare case. You had interactions with an outflow boundary in addition to southwest moving storms. It was some pretty crazy circumstances that increased shear at a microscale level in addition to extreme CAPE that led to an extremely violent tornado and additional significant tornadoes.

Saying that, what you have to watch out for today is any type of boundary that can enhance the tornado threat in DFW. We saw this happen on 4/3/2012, and we saw this happen last night on the nose of an EML boundary. Another thing to watch is if the LLJ is stronger than forecasted, which could enhance low level shear.

[EnnisTx]

Mesoscale Discussion 0498 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021 Areas affected...Northern Texas and southeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 032014Z - 032215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across north Texas and south-central Oklahoma between 5-7 PM CDT. These storms will pose a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes. A watch is likely by 21 UTC. DISCUSSION...Surface observations from north TX and southern OK reveal a surface low northeast of Abilene, TX with a stalled cold front draped to the southwest and a dryline extending to the south. To the northeast of this low, a stationary front is noted across southern to northeast OK. Recent GOES visible imagery shows a shallow, but growing, cumulus field west of the DFW metro into southeast OK east of the stationary boundary. A 19 UTC FWD sounding shows considerable MLCIN remains in place, and should keep convection at bay in the near term. However, continued diurnal heating and increasing ascent over the region (due to the approach of an upper-level wave from the west) will help erode lingering inhibition by the 5-7 PM CDT time frame. Deep-layer shear is forecast to increase as stronger flow associated with the synoptic trough moves over the region, which will support initially discrete cells along the dryline and stationary boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates noted in the 19 UTC FWD sounding and dewpoints increasing into the upper 60s/low 70s will support MLCAPE values near 3000-4000 J/kg. Consequently, severe hail appears likely and a few instances of large (2+") hail are probable with any initial discrete storms. The KFWS VWP recently observed around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, which may support at least a low-end tornado threat across north TX. The tornado threat will likely be higher along the Red River and northward into south/southeast OK in the vicinity of the triple point and along the stationary boundary where more backed low-level winds are noted and environmental vertical vorticity is higher. Although the potential for a few tornadoes exists with any initial discrete convection, rapid upscale growth is possible within an hour or two after initiation, and may limit the overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, a tornado watch is likely by 21 UTC. ..Moore/Grams.. 05/03/2021

[bubba hotep]

Steve McCauley just posted an update, might raise some eyebrows.

What did he post?

Today feels like the 1st real svr wx day of the Spring - hot, hazy, with surface winds whipping.

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley just posted an update, might raise some eyebrows.

What did he post?

Today feels like the 1st real svr wx day of the Spring - hot, hazy, with surface winds whipping.

Here you go. Interesting night ahead.
Steve McCauley
1 hr ·
The atmosphere is becoming increasingly unstable this afternoon across north Texas ahead of a cold front/dryline combination that will combine with temperatures near 90° which should break the cap and allow explosive thunderstorm development to take place after 5 PM.

Hail sizes from peas to hockey pucks, 40 to 70 mph winds, and a few tornadoes will be likely though any tornado activity should be relatively brief unless a storm is able to stay isolated. Most of the storms should line out and become more of a straightline wind event. But stay alert for those rogue storms that separate themselves from the pack.

The least likely areas to see the storms will be the western third of north Texas with the eastern 2/3rds - including the 4-County Metroplex - having the better chances. Anywhere from 30% to 40% of north Texas will see the storms, which means 60% to 70% get nothing. But many - BUT NOT ALL - of the storms that do pop up will be quite intense.

After this evening, the weather in the immediate DFW area will quiet down for the rest of the week. And say goodbye to the humidity along with temperatures not getting out of the 70s with a breezy north wind for Tuesday.

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley just posted an update, might raise some eyebrows.

What did he post?

Today feels like the 1st real svr wx day of the Spring - hot, hazy, with surface winds whipping.

I agree. Even the low clouds still around are blowing quickly.