Great Plains, Midwest, & Deep South Storm Season 2021

[ElectricStorm]

The GEFS is being EXTREMELY consistent for the May 8th event . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/NEXLABdpdt-00Z-20210509_gefsSGP_con_meanscp-50-100.gif

Yeah but there's probably going to be a huge EML though. But yeah I would say it's one to watch

[Iceresistance]

The GEFS is being EXTREMELY consistent for the May 8th event . . .

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/NEXLABdpdt-00Z-20210509_gefsSGP_con_meanscp-50-100.gif

Yeah but there's probably going to be a huge EML though. But yeah I would say it's one to watch

But sometimes . . . A cap is needed for Supercell Development . . .

[Iceresistance]

Upgraded to Moderate

[ElectricStorm]

Man that is a ton of 80mph winds down there...

[ElectricStorm]

Ok so I just went back and looked at Saturday again and it looks like it's got a lot more potential than I originally thought. Still several days for it to trend one way or another but it looks interesting

[Iceresistance]

Ok so I just went back and looked at Saturday again and it looks like it's got a lot more potential than I originally thought. Still several days for it to trend one way or another but it looks interesting

Yeah, I've already labeled it through Next Week from 12z runs . . .
Day 4 (Friday) - Potential Too Low

Day 5 (Saturday) - Severe Potential for Southern Kansas, Most of Oklahoma, & Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 6 (Sunday) - Severe Potential for Southern Oklahoma & most of Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 7 (Monday) - Severe Potential Eastern Oklahoma & Eastern Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 8 (Tuesday) - Severe Potential for Oklahoma & NE Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 9 (Wednesday) - Potential Too Low

Day 10 (Thursday) - Severe Potential for Eastern Kansas, Along and east of I-35 in Oklahoma & Western Missouri, but it's far out

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty good agreement between the GFS and Euro on a dryline setting up Saturday. If the 0z GFS continues that, I could see a 15% area added for Day 4 tomorrow.

Also would like to see what the 0z has for next week as well. 18z had several systems coming through but I'm mainly interested in the one around 5/13, as it looked pretty interesting on the 18z

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty good agreement between the GFS and Euro on a dryline setting up Saturday. If the 0z GFS continues that, I could see a 15% area added for Day 4 tomorrow.

Also would like to see what the 0z has for next week as well. 18z had several systems coming through but I'm mainly interested in the one around 5/13, as it looked pretty interesting on the 18z

0z GFS still has it, but has the cap too strong in OK for any storms to form. Threat mainly in KS on this run.

[ElectricStorm]

Well the last three days have certainly been pretty intense:




Note that today's storm reports will continue to increase as it's still ongoing. We very well may see 500+ wind reports for today.

As far as tornado ratings, I have seen that the Tupelo tornado (the one that prompted the TOR-E) has been rated EF1. This makes sense as the velocity couplet didn't look near as strong as most storms that prompt TOR-Es do. I personally think they issued it mainly due to it coming in late at night rather than the strength of the storm, to help people realize it was the real deal. The Blum, TX tornado from yesterday has been rated EF2, and the one near Dallas that flipped the semis was also rated EF2. There were some other EF2s as well as many EF1s and 0s.

We'll have a few quieter days to reload before the next system comes through starting Saturday. Welcome to May...

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

That earlier unwarned Virginia tornado that I believe was mentioned here was rated EF2 as well.

https://www.nbc29.com/2021/05/03/possible-tornado-causes-damage-northumberland-county/

[Iceresistance]

SPC has Kansas in the potential zone for severe weather in 4 days . . .

[Iceresistance]

This should be mentioned in the Day 4-8 outlook, the GEFS is being very consistent on a potential outbreak across Oklahoma despite a strong cap, but the higher the SCP, the stronger the updrafts are going to be . . .

Mean SCP is up to 10 in South-Central Oklahoma (Pauls Valley, OK)

[Iceresistance]

New outlook from my careful forecasting . . .

Day 4 (Saturday) - Severe Potential for SE Kansas, far NE Oklahoma & Western Missouri, predictability is too low for Northern, Central & Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas

Day 5 (Sunday) - Severe Potential for the Southern Half of Oklahoma & most of Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 6 (Monday) - Severe Potential for Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 7 (Tuesday) - Severe Potential for Eastern 2/3 of Oklahoma & Most of Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 8 (Wednesday) - Potential Too Low

Day 9 (Thursday) - Potential Too Low

Day 10 (Friday) - Severe Potential possible for Northern Oklahoma & Most of Kansas, but it's too far out to be certain

[ElectricStorm]

In the Day 4 slight risk here
Also the 6z GFS really likes the long range but who knows what's gonna happen at this point...

[Iceresistance]

In the Day 4 slight risk here
Also the 6z GFS really likes the long range but who knows what's gonna happen at this point...

Well, the GEFS is getting more aggressive with their mean SCP every run, this might warrant a Slight Risk in Central Oklahoma . . .

[Iceresistance]

SREF's first showing on Saturday's potential outbreak . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

New outlook from my careful forecasting . . .

Day 4 (Saturday) - Severe Potential for SE Kansas, far NE Oklahoma & Western Missouri, predictability is too low for Northern, Central & Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas

Day 5 (Sunday) - Severe Potential for the Southern Half of Oklahoma & most of Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 6 (Monday) - Severe Potential for Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 7 (Tuesday) - Severe Potential for Eastern 2/3 of Oklahoma & Most of Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 8 (Wednesday) - Potential Too Low

Day 9 (Thursday) - Potential Too Low

Day 10 (Friday) - Severe Potential possible for Northern Oklahoma & Most of Kansas, but it's too far out to be certain

Can you change the yellow color to something more appealing to the eye? It is hard to read. Otherwise, keep up the forecasts!

[InfernoFlameCat]

Potential Outbreaks are not looking too spicy this May. Potential smaller outbreaks on multiple occasions are possible however.

[Iceresistance]

New outlook from my careful forecasting . . .

Day 4 (Saturday) - Severe Potential for SE Kansas, far NE Oklahoma & Western Missouri, predictability is too low for Northern, Central & Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas

Day 5 (Sunday) - Severe Potential for the Southern Half of Oklahoma & most of Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 6 (Monday) - Severe Potential for Southern Oklahoma & Northern Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 7 (Tuesday) - Severe Potential for Eastern 2/3 of Oklahoma & Most of Texas, but predictability is too low

Day 8 (Wednesday) - Potential Too Low

Day 9 (Thursday) - Potential Too Low

Day 10 (Friday) - Severe Potential possible for Northern Oklahoma & Most of Kansas, but it's too far out to be certain

Can you change the yellow color to something more appealing to the eye? It is hard to read. Otherwise, keep up the forecasts!

I'll change it to a more orange tint . . . & make it bold . . .

[Iceresistance]

Potential Outbreaks are not looking too spicy this May. Potential smaller outbreaks on multiple occasions are possible however.

Well, I found this from the GEFS Mean SCP . . .



The mean SCP is up to 10 in South-Central Oklahoma, I'm 8-9 on the SCP . . .