EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[JW-_-]

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM PDT Fri May 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.

An area of low pressure remains located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has become better organized since this
morning, and further development of this system is expected over the
next few days. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm
is now likely to form over the weekend or early next week before
environmental conditions become less favorable as the system moves
gradually west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 8 AM PDT Saturday morning, or earlier if conditions
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/pJgCFgF.gif

https://i.imgur.com/RM92Mf1.gif

https://i.imgur.com/2jXbv8a.gif

Convective bursts near the "center", let's see how this evolves through the night. DMAX should help it.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

This system is clearly behaving as a developed TC.

[ElectricStorm]

Haven't really been following this one all that closely but looking at it tonight it looks like it should be classified soon honestly...

[Kingarabian]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 08/0530Z

C. 12.7N

D. 103.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI

H. REMARKS...1.0 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. MET=1.5 AND
PT=2.0. 0055Z GMI PASS REVEALED A TIGHT BANDING CENTER REFORMING TO SE
OF PREVIOUS POSITION. RAPID CONVECTIVE BURST LAST FEW HR. FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS LIMITING TO MAX OF 2.0 WITHIN FIRST 24 HR OF CLASSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

08/0055Z 12.4N 103.5W GMI


...KONON

[Nancy Smar]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri May 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.

1. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with the low pressure system located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico continue to become better
organized. Further development of this system is expected over the
next couple of days and a short-lived tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form Saturday or on Sunday. By mid
next week, environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable as the system moves gradually west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 8 AM PDT Saturday, or earlier if conditions warrant.

Forecaster Roberts

ABPZ20 KNHC 080827
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM PDT Sat May 8 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with the low pressure system located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico continue to become better
organized. Further development of this system is expected over the
next couple of days and a short-lived tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later today or on Sunday. By mid
next week, environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable as the system moves gradually west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 8 AM PDT today, or earlier if conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

Up to 2.5.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 08/1130Z

C. 12.4N

D. 105.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.0 AND
PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

08/0850Z 12.2N 104.3W AMSR2


...MLEVINE

[cycloneye]

No change.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 AM PDT Sat May 8 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern coast of Mexico have changed little in organization
overnight. However, conditions are conducive for further
development of this system over the next day or so, and a
short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form
tonight or on Sunday. In 2-3 days, environmental conditions are
expected to become less favorable as the system moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 2 PM PDT today, or earlier if conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Yellow Evan]

Looked better yesterday as dry air, perhaps at the low levels, is getting to it. Judging by its shape, mid-level shear might be getting to it even if it's upper level structure looks excellent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Seen worse classified and named.

[Sciencerocks]

This based on satellite estimates and visible satellite for the past 24 hours has probably been deserving.

[zeehag]

we are glad this is going to be a short lived issue as many are still sailing epac waters returning home or to safety.

[Kingarabian]

4 hour old ASCAT:



Only caught about 70% of the LLC. Close enough IMO.

[ouragans]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 PM PDT Sat May 8 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for an area of disturbed
weather southwest of Mexico.

Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern coast of Mexico continue to show signs of
organization. Conditions are conducive for further development of
this system over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or on Sunday.
In 2 days or so, environmental conditions are expected to become
less favorable as the system moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be
issued by 8 PM PDT today, or earlier if conditions warrant.

[Kingarabian]

Will be moving into an area with slightly weaker mid level shear. Has about another 24 hours before upper level winds rip it apart.

[JW-_-]

Amsu multi, although-subjective sat estimates were likely on the money with this one.

Being marginal and forecast to go ots... It may not ever receive the proper TD/TC classification in its life span.

Next.