2020 TCRs

[Beef Stew]

The TCR for Hurricane Zeta is up on the NHC webpage... we officially have a Category 3 designation.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/

[Iceresistance]

Well, the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season numbers are now this: 31-30-14-7-1

2020 is now tied with 2005 with the most Major Hurricanes in one season . . .

[Iceresistance]

The last TCRs are now Eta & Iota . . .

Iota should stay as a CAT 5 & Eta has a chance . . .

Any TCRs left after Iota & Eta?

[Beef Stew]

The last TCRs are now Eta & Iota . . .

Iota should stay as a CAT 5 & Eta has a chance . . .

Any TCRs left after Iota & Eta?

We still have Laura as well.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing there was a lot of deliberation that led to that 100 kt intensity. However, if the radar intensities were used at face value (90%) that would be an intensity of 110-115 kt, but convection was rather weak at that time.

[CyclonicFury]

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season's total is now 30-14-7. The season started with 7 consecutive tropical storms early on, and was 23-14-7 after July 23. 2020 is more proof that weak, early-season storms mean nothing to the intensity of TCs at peak season.

[Beef Stew]

Well, the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season numbers are now this: 31-30-14-7-1

2020 is now tied with 2005 with the most Major Hurricanes in one season . . .

Of note too- Zeta’s upgrade also makes it the latest major CONUS landfall on record, and only the second one not to be (officially) retired.

[CrazyC83]

At the end of September, the season was 23-8-2. The first two-thirds of the season brought a TON of weak storms and a few middling storms, but other than Laura, not much in the way of high-end activity.

What is most amazing is that there were 5 major hurricanes AFTER October 1. The back end of the season didn't have as much quantity, but sure made up for it in high-intensity storms.

[EquusStorm]

Wow, wasn't fully expecting em to upgrade. I think it was fairly obvious Zeta was a c3 even operationally but figured the paucity of data from strongest quad might hold them back on the TCR. Well-deserved imo. But let's think back on how surreal it is to have not just a Greek named storm but a major hurricane six names into the Greek list striking the northern Gulf Coast at the tail end of October

[Beef Stew]

I'm guessing there was a lot of deliberation that led to that 100 kt intensity. However, if the radar intensities were used at face value (90%) that would be an intensity of 110-115 kt, but convection was rather weak at that time.

Blake and co. do substantially discuss the radar intensities from Zeta, and you’re precisely right- they attribute the discrepancy between standard reduction estimates and the actual intensity estimate to be the result of the eyewall being broken in the south. Here’s the excerpt:

“Radial velocity data from KLIX showed 10-bin (~0.25 km per bin) average radar velocities of 125 kt at 2031 and 2033 UTC, indicating a large area of strong winds, with peak 4-bin velocities of 127 kt for 4 volume scans centered around 2030 UTC at heights between 9,500 and 10,000 ft. These data would normally correspond to an intensity of around 110 kt using the typical dropsonde-based wind reductions from a height of around 700 mb/10,000 ft. However, the available data suggest that these typical flight-level to surface wind reductions were not realized in the later stages of Zeta, possibly since the eye was broken in the southeastern quadrant. A dropsonde at 1840 UTC measured a 110 kt average wind in the lowest 150 meters in the northeastern quadrant, which corresponds to an intensity of 90–95 kt. This dropsonde was near the area where 700-mb flight-level winds were 119 kt, and the resulting ratio of the surface wind estimate from the dropsonde to the flight-level winds was roughly 80%. Using this reduction factor for the radar-derived winds (125–127 kt, which were near 700 mb) results in an intensity estimate of 100 kt at landfall.”


What I do wonder, however, is why there was no discussion or even mention regarding fairly similar radar measurements in Sally’s TCR. Evidently the radar data was a crucial piece to determining Zeta’s best track intensity; I’m curious as to why it was seemingly omitted in the TCR discussion for Sally.

[BYG Jacob]

Y'all are acting like the season was a disappointment until October. Aside from two MDR storms getting roughed up by the TUTT, which storms underperformed given location, time of year, and conditions present?

[MarioProtVI]

Zeta’s upgrade pretty much eliminates any chance of Iota’s downgrade being possible since the table is now officially known to have been incorrect

[InfernoFlameCat]

Zeta’s upgrade pretty much eliminates any chance of Iota’s downgrade being possible since the table is now officially known to have been incorrect

I love this statement. Also We have our first major Greek continental US landfall, and last. I am sure you all knew that though. What a season though.

[ColdMiser123]

The NHC used WSR-88D radial velocity bins as one of the major sources for the post season upgrade for Zeta. Unfortunate, and disappointing that this same kind of analysis wasn't done for Sally.

However, the highest winds were observed on the Slidell, Louisiana, WSR-88D radar (KLIX). Radial velocity data from KLIX
showed 10-bin (~0.25 km per bin) average radar velocities of 125 kt at 2031 and 2033 UTC,
indicating a large area of strong winds, with peak 4-bin velocities of 127 kt for 4 volume scans
centered around 2030 UTC at heights between 9,500 and 10,000 ft.

...

Using this reduction factor for the radar-derived winds (125–127 kt, which were near 700 mb) results in an intensity estimate of 100 kt at landfall.

[EquusStorm]

We definitely gotta downgrade Matthew and probably Lorenzo before there's even talk of Iota so I certainly hope that rumor is bs

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah Zeta definitely deserves the Cat 3. Iota should stay at 140kts for sure.

[aspen]

If Theta was able to become a Cat 1 as models originally forecast, 2020 would’ve also tied 2005’s hurricane record.

No way Iota gets downgraded after Zeta’s upgrade. Both have plenty of evidence for being Cat 3 and 5, respectively, and it shows that the NHC is even willing to upgrade a storm despite not doing so for Sally.

It’s also strange to think that a multi billion dollar CONUS major hurricane landfall didn’t get its name retired, but it’s not like a Z name is gonna be used in the Atlantic ever again with the Greeks being discarded. It would’ve been even stranger if Sally got upgraded to a Cat 3.

[Hammy]

At the end of September, the season was 23-8-2. The first two-thirds of the season brought a TON of weak storms and a few middling storms, but other than Laura, not much in the way of high-end activity.

What is most amazing is that there were 5 major hurricanes AFTER October 1. The back end of the season didn't have as much quantity, but sure made up for it in high-intensity storms.

What's interesting is how backloaded--with a few exceptions--the seasons have become over the last decade or so. Activity has been ramping up, rather than tapering off during October, and even more remarkable when you consider nothing formed the last third of September.

[Ryxn]

The 4-major hurricane streak from Delta to Eta is the LONGEST streak of consecutive major hurricanes in the satellite era. It ties 1926 (One, Two, Three, Four) and 1894 (Three, Four, Five, Six) overall. It had the amount of majors in the 2010 season within October and the first half of November. Quite an insane year.

[ncforecaster89]

The NHC used WSR-88D radial velocity bins as one of the major sources for the post season upgrade for Zeta. Unfortunate, and disappointing that this same kind of analysis wasn't done for Sally.

However, the highest winds were observed on the Slidell, Louisiana, WSR-88D radar (KLIX). Radial velocity data from KLIX
showed 10-bin (~0.25 km per bin) average radar velocities of 125 kt at 2031 and 2033 UTC,
indicating a large area of strong winds, with peak 4-bin velocities of 127 kt for 4 volume scans
centered around 2030 UTC at heights between 9,500 and 10,000 ft.

...

Using this reduction factor for the radar-derived winds (125–127 kt, which were near 700 mb) results in an intensity estimate of 100 kt at landfall.

I wholeheartedly agree, and strongly believe Sally was a major hurricane as well...even though the NHC didn’t officially designate it as such.