2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

Much cooler MDR in 2021 than in 2020 for this time of year. We will see how things evolve in the next 3 months.

https://i.imgur.com/EChooUp.png

https://i.imgur.com/iwnGPf1.png

That is the 7 day change, not the current SST anomaly, and the CDAS tends to run cooler than other datasets. Regardless, the MDR is cooler than 2020.

Enhanced low-level easterlies (trades) over most of the MDR have certainly been playing a key role over the past month. Interestingly, the NAO has been strongly negative, albeit west-based, during the same timeframe. Perhaps the expansion of Hadley cells due to climate change means that in the near future -NAO episodes will not correlate as strongly with a warmer MDR, due to the low-level westerlies shifting northward into the subtropics, to be supplanted by net easterlies underneath. Regardless, the SST configuration in the remote North Atlantic, particularly to the immediate south of Iceland, recalls that of a -AMO rather than +AMO, given abundant freshwater intrusion from Greenland vis-à-vis AGW feedback → freshening of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) → weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
https://i.postimg.cc/50J6kRSY/2021-Uanom-1.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/RZ363f0F/2021-SST-1.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/CxN8pYdC/2021NAO.gif

So in terms of this season's predicted activity, does this have any major implications in one way or another?

[cycloneye]

UKMET has cool neutral for ASO and has a wetter Caribbean that is different from other models.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392099824347095040

[SFLcane]

UKMET has cool neutral for ASO and has a wetter Caribbean that is different from other models.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392099824347095040

Much more active look then the Euro for sure because it warms the Atlantic. That’s the question mark I see

[Shell Mound]

UKMET has cool neutral for ASO and has a wetter Caribbean that is different from other models.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392099824347095040

Much more active look then the Euro for sure because it warms the Atlantic. That’s the question mark I see

Although the UKMET is envisioning a somewhat weaker African monsoon than in 2020, it is actually showing more precipitation over the Sahel and the MDR, along with a much drier EPAC, even though the IOD and ENSO are expected to be closer to neutral than Niña. Furthermore, notably, the latest forecast signifies a stronger +AMO than the previous outlook did in 2020. On the latest run the southern half of the Caribbean looks to be roughly as wet as in 2020. Given the drier conditions over the Greater Antilles, along with a warm Gulf of Guinea, this run is likely implying a more active CV season than in 2020, because the weaker African monsoon allows storms to consolidate earlier over a warmer MDR, rather than wait until farther west. The run also seems to imply a -NAO during peak season, hence many OTS tracks and a reduced risk to FL and/or the Eastern Seaboard, as in 2010. Note the absence of abnormally dry conditions over the Great Plains during ASO, hence less of a “ridge-bridge” and a weaker, more suppressed Bermuda High than in 2020. (Incidentally, 2010 also featured a very active MDR and a strong +AMO despite a warm Gulf of Guinea.)

[SFLcane]

UKMET has cool neutral for ASO and has a wetter Caribbean that is different from other models.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392099824347095040

Much more active look then the Euro for sure because it warms the Atlantic. That’s the question mark I see

Although the UKMET is envisioning a somewhat weaker African monsoon than in 2020, it is actually showing more precipitation over the Sahel and the MDR, along with a much drier EPAC, even though the IOD and ENSO are expected to be closer to neutral than Niña. Furthermore, notably, the latest forecast signifies a stronger +AMO than the previous outlook did in 2020. On the latest run the southern half of the Caribbean looks to be roughly as wet as in 2020. Given the drier conditions over the Greater Antilles, along with a warm Gulf of Guinea, this run is likely implying a more active CV season than in 2020, because the weaker African monsoon allows storms to consolidate earlier over a warmer MDR, rather than wait until farther west. The run also seems to imply a -NAO during peak season, hence many OTS tracks and a reduced risk to FL and/or the Eastern Seaboard, as in 2010. Note the absence of abnormally dry conditions over the Great Plains during ASO, hence less of a “ridge-bridge” and a weaker, more suppressed Bermuda High than in 2020. (Incidentally, 2010 also featured a very active MDR and a strong +AMO despite a warm Gulf of Guinea.)

https://i.postimg.cc/7Pg06KWj/2020-UKMET-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Z5qdw45h/2021-UKMET-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/g2Pswm86/FLprecipitation-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/GhdYsk0t/2020-UKMET-2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Qxm7gHsb/2021-UKMET-2.png

Florida looks wet on the UKMET. October could be driving a lot of that probably. Honestly this is all just clear cut speculation as we can’t even get a forecast right 3-5 days out yet along what will happen in 3 months. As far as i’am concerned everyone living in a coastal community in a hurricane zone is fair game and with no El Niño this year everyone should be ready.

[CyclonicFury]

UKMET has cool neutral for ASO and has a wetter Caribbean that is different from other models.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392099824347095040

Much more active look then the Euro for sure because it warms the Atlantic. That’s the question mark I see

Although the UKMET is envisioning a somewhat weaker African monsoon than in 2020, it is actually showing more precipitation over the Sahel and the MDR, along with a much drier EPAC, even though the IOD and ENSO are expected to be closer to neutral than Niña. Furthermore, notably, the latest forecast signifies a stronger +AMO than the previous outlook did in 2020. On the latest run the southern half of the Caribbean looks to be roughly as wet as in 2020. Given the drier conditions over the Greater Antilles, along with a warm Gulf of Guinea, this run is likely implying a more active CV season than in 2020, because the weaker African monsoon allows storms to consolidate earlier over a warmer MDR, rather than wait until farther west. The run also seems to imply a -NAO during peak season, hence many OTS tracks and a reduced risk to FL and/or the Eastern Seaboard, as in 2010. Note the absence of abnormally dry conditions over the Great Plains during ASO, hence less of a “ridge-bridge” and a weaker, more suppressed Bermuda High than in 2020. (Incidentally, 2010 also featured a very active MDR and a strong +AMO despite a warm Gulf of Guinea.)

https://i.postimg.cc/7Pg06KWj/2020-UKMET-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Z5qdw45h/2021-UKMET-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/g2Pswm86/FLprecipitation-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/GhdYsk0t/2020-UKMET-2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Qxm7gHsb/2021-UKMET-2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/50TtSQ2X/2010-ASOSST-1.png

It seems like you are always downplaying the risk to Florida. Of course it is possible if not likely South Florida will avoid a big hit again, but NOAA stresses every year in their preseason outlooks that you cannot predict which areas will be affected (or safe) months in advance.

[Iceresistance]

SST anomalies in the Atlantic, around 20ºN is where the dividing line is between above normal & below normal SSTs . . .

[SFLcane]

SST anomalies in the Atlantic, around 20ºN is where the dividing line is between above normal & below normal SSTs . . .
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/crw_sstamean_natl.png

What in the world? That has to be as unfavorable look as I have seen in a while. If this holds look for bunch development in the sub-tropics this season. A break for the mainland let’s hope.

[JetFuel_SE]

SST anomalies in the Atlantic, around 20ºN is where the dividing line is between above normal & below normal SSTs . . .
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/crw_sstamean_natl.png

What in the world? That has to be as unfavorable look as I have seen in a while. If this holds look for bunch development in the sub-tropics this season. A break for the mainland let’s hope.

That is vs the global mean, which tends to look way less favorable than it actually is.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Still 3 weeks before the official start of the season and really the MDR doesn't get cranking til August. Yeah we occasionally get some storms sooner but still plenty of time for things to change. I did figure it would be a little warmer by now though. But as someone said the image above is global mean. The regular anomaly map is still cool but not quite as bad.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1392493369050419203




This warmth in the Atlantic Nino region as well as the warm Canary Current imho suggest that while the MDR may not look very favorable now, I personally think it will warm up in the coming months.

[SFLcane]

Still 3 weeks before the official start of the season and really the MDR doesn't get cranking til August. Yeah we occasionally get some storms sooner but still plenty of time for things to change. I did figure it would be a little warmer by now though. But as someone said the image above is global mean. The regular anomaly map is still cool but not quite as bad.

It’s clearly running way behind 2020 and most of the warmth is in the sub-tropics thus far. I’d venture to say it’s not a look of a very active season but we shall see lots can change. Reminds me a lot of 2019

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has a 2020 ssta graphic by this time to compare with 2021 at MDR?

[OuterBanker]

Wow. Season over posts already!

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow. Season over posts already!

Yeah, then again in recent years (even years like 2018 and 2019) the MDR was quite cool in May but significantly warmed up in the summer. I am definitely in the mindset of just wait and see, because if current models hold and a cool neutral pattern or something like that emerges then I am confident that the MDR will warm up. This sst anomaly profile as of now definitely does not mean it will hold into August of course, and as a matter of fact if it does then that would certainly defy all of my expectations.

[CyclonicFury]

Wow. Season over posts already!

Yeah, then again in recent years (even years like 2018 and 2019) the MDR was quite cool in May but significantly warmed up in the summer. I am definitely in the mindset of just wait and see, because if current models hold and a cool neutral pattern or something like that emerges then I am confident that the MDR will warm up. This sst anomaly profile as of now definitely does not mean it will hold into August of course, and as a matter of fact if it does then that would certainly defy all of my expectations.

I'd probably lean to this season being a bit more intense than 2018/19 because of the likely cooler ENSO compared to those years. 2018 only had 2 major hurricanes, the fewest since 2015, while 219 only had 6 hurricanes, also the fewest since 2015.

[Iceresistance]

Wow. Season over posts already!

Yeah, then again in recent years (even years like 2018 and 2019) the MDR was quite cool in May but significantly warmed up in the summer. I am definitely in the mindset of just wait and see, because if current models hold and a cool neutral pattern or something like that emerges then I am confident that the MDR will warm up. This sst anomaly profile as of now definitely does not mean it will hold into August of course, and as a matter of fact if it does then that would certainly defy all of my expectations.

I'd probably lean to this season being a bit more intense than 2018/19 because of the likely cooler ENSO compared to those years. 2018 only had 2 major hurricanes, the fewest since 2015, while 219 only had 6 hurricanes, also the fewest since 2015.

Did the year 2019 had 6 hurricanes?

[hurricanes1234]

Oh also, does anyone know if our first tropical wave has formed yet over Africa?

I know things usually start getting toasty around this time.

[USTropics]

Does anyone has a 2020 ssta graphic by this time to compare with 2021 at MDR?

Using high-res data from coral reef watch (NOAA) - ftp://ftp.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/sod/mecb/crw/data/5km/v3.1_op/nc/v1.0/daily/ssta

[BYG Jacob]

I see we're talking about SST anomalies in May as if they mean anything again.