ARB: TAUKTAE - Post-Tropical

[JW-_-]

EC was looking brutal.

[aspen]

The model tracks have shifted from an Arabian Peninsula/Pakistan landfall to a track that gets pretty close to the west Indian coast. It’s entirely possible 92A gets too close to become anything significant, despite the monstrously high potential in the NIO.

[JW-_-]

[JW-_-]

12z



(ref 18Z)

[doomhaMwx]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 13.05.2021

ARABIAN SEA:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA & ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA TODAY, THE 13TH MAY MORNING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO BECOME WELL MARKED OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA BY 14TH MORNING, CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER THE SAME REGION BY 15TH MORNING AND INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST & ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS GUJARAT AND ADJOINING PAKISTAN COASTS. IT IS LIKELY TO REACH NEAR GUJARAT COAST AROUND 18TH MAY EVENING.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FURTHER EXPANDED INTO CENTRAL & SOUTH AS, ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN, LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES AND COMORIN AREA WITH FURTHER ORGANISATION. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE NOW SEEN AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION (LLCC). ASSOCIATED MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -93C. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL & SOUTH ARABIAN SEA (AS), ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN, LAKSHADWEEP, MALDIVES AND COMORIN AREA. THE ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. SEA CONDITION IS MODERATE TO ROUGH.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120 HRS :
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL MODERATE HIGH HIGH HIGH

[JW-_-]

00Z EC had weakening before landfall a good sign atm.

[Subtrop]

WTIO21 PGTW 131200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 70.5E TO 13.1N 73.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 71.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 530
NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 130826Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 92A WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY AS IT TURNS
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141200Z.//
NNNN

[aspen]

The GFS, Euro, ICON, and HWRF keep 92A far enough off the Indian coast to become significant. The 12z HWRF peaks at 912 mbar, and the GFS is in the mid 920s.

[JW-_-]

12z

[doomhaMwx]

Sub: Depression over Lakshadweep area: Pre-Cyclone watch for south Gujarat & Diu coasts

The well marked low pressure area over Lakshadweep area & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea moved east-northeastwards, concentrated into a Depression and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 14thMay, 2021 over Lakshadweep area near latitude 10.5°N and longitude 72.3°E, about 80 km south-southwest of Amini Divi, 360 km west-southwest of Kannur (Kerala), 1170 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat).
It is very likely to intensify into a Deep Depression during next 12 hours and into a Cyclonic Storm during subsequent 12 hours. It is very likely to intensify further. It is very likely to move initially north-northeastwards till today evening. It would then move northnorthwestwards and reach near Gujarat coast by 18th May morning.

[Hayabusa]

The western-bias Euro is leaning on the east side while the eastern-bias GFS likes it tracking more west .

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC has renumbered.

01A INVEST 210514 0600 11.6N 72.1E IO 35 998

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 72.2E. 14MAY21.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 843 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 140231Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A 155NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.

[JW-_-]

Dust in high concentrations near the surface will appear as magenta shadings on the map, while lighter pink/peach colors indicate dust lofted farther off the ground.

[doomhaMwx]

01A is already establishing dual outflow channels at this point. This, along with low shear, warm SSTs, + large moisture envelope (making it less vulnerable to dry air that typically plagues Arabian Sea TCs) will promote continued intensification.

[JW-_-]

[TorSkk]

Sub: Depression intensified into a Deep Depression over Lakshadweep area and adjoining
southeast & east central Arabian Sea: Pre-Cyclone watch for south Gujarat & Diu coasts

The Depression over Lakshadweep area moved north-northeastwards with a speed of 19
kmph during past 6 hours, intensified into a Deep Depression and lay centred at 1430 hours
IST of today, the 14th May, 2021 over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast &
eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 11.5°N and longitude 72.5°E, about 50 km northnorthwest of Amini Divi, 310 km west-southwest of Kannur (Kerala), 1060 km southsoutheast of Veraval (Gujarat).
It is very likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours and is very likely
to intensify further during the subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move northnorthwestwards and reach near Gujarat coast by 18th May morning.

[TorSkk]

Depending on the exact track, significant impacts are possible in Pakistan. GFS is still suggesting landfall near Karachi, possibly as a major cyclone

[Iceresistance]

Warning #2 from the JTWC

141500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 72.2E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
828 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 141205Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A
IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE
RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A 235NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT
CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24
WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH MORE RAPID
WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST IS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND
151500Z.//

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1393257665145548800



 https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1393213266353078272



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1393214468042199046



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1393216783537119233

[aspen]

Today’s 12z HWRF is around 15-20 mbar weaker than the previous runs, likely due to land interaction. Large moisture pocket or not, if 01A strays too close to land, it will have a lower ceiling because of dry air being sucked off the coast, as well as shallower waters and the non-zero possibility of it making landfall before Pakistan.

Distance from land will likely be the key thing that determines whether this ends up as a normal Cat 3/4 system, or a far stronger high end 4 or a Cat 5.