ARB: TAUKTAE - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro no intense forecast as it tracks over the Indian coast.

[badkhan]

Depending on the exact track, significant impacts are possible in Pakistan. GFS is still suggesting landfall near Karachi, possibly as a major cyclone

https://i.imgur.com/XsOokxO.png

After witnessing the floods of last year. I can say that the city is not at all prepared for a major cyclone making landfall. Lets hope it veers away/dissipates.

[Meteophile]

[Subtrop]

Sub: Deep Depression intensified into a Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast & eastcentral Arabian Sea:

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST & EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 07 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM “TAUKTAE” (PRONOUNCED AS TAU’TE) OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST & EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF 14TH MAY, 2021 NEAR LATITUDE 12.0°N AND LONGITUDE 72.6°E, ABOUT 100 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AMINI DIVI (43311), 290 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KANNUR (43315), 1010 KM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (42909).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
REACH NEAR GUJARAT COAST AROUND 0000 UTC OF 18TH MAY.

[JW-_-]

Don't have twitter these days it doesn't like vpn. When I did was mostly to see what Ryan Allen was thinking.





850mb clearly shear affected atm. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 866,13.919

840

FXIO40 EGRR 141600



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.05.2021



CYCLONIC STORM 01A ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 72.4E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 14.05.2021 11.4N 72.4E MODERATE

00UTC 15.05.2021 12.7N 73.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.05.2021 14.7N 73.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 16.05.2021 15.7N 71.6E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 16.05.2021 16.0N 70.8E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.05.2021 16.9N 69.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.05.2021 18.3N 69.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.05.2021 19.4N 68.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 18.05.2021 20.8N 67.7E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.05.2021 21.9N 67.0E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.05.2021 23.0N 66.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.05.2021 24.4N 67.5E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.05.2021 26.6N 69.3E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 141600

Quite a few things can be seen to tame the forecast down I think. Appears nobody likes anything I'm posting so I leave it here.

[Hayabusa]

Who's gonna cave the GFS that is hellbent on track to near or over Pakistan or the Euro's track over India?

[doomhaMwx]

GFS is too far west. The 00Z run predicted the 06Z position to be 13.7N 72.4E, which is already 100km west vs actual (06Z JTWC pos is 13.5N 73.3E). More credence to eastern solutions showing landfall in India's Gujarat.

[doomhaMwx]

The 06Z GFS has caught on Tauktae's recent movement closer to India's coast and is now more east with landfall in Gujarat as well.

[mrbagyo]

Radar

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/Maneesh1098/status/1393578280993755138



 https://twitter.com/Srinidhi_SS/status/1393511901481431041

[mrbagyo]

[aspen]

Looks like Tauktae is now moving roughly parallel, maybe ever so slightly further away, from the Indian coast. It’s firing off very cold cloud tops of -80C to -90C and radar shows it has a rather good eyewall. Therefore, odds are good it undergoes RI within the next day or so, assuming no surprise landfall or dry air intrusion. The latter remains an ever-present possibility this close to the Indian coast.

[rileydoxsee98]

Appears like Tauktae is organizing quite well (unfortunately). Intense convection is rotating upshear. Outflow is expected to be really solid, tapping into a 200mb jet maximum. Unfortunately, the biggest things standing in its way. Is itself. And EWRC is a double edged sword. I’d suspect that Tauktae will likely become a Super Cyclonic Storm. I would be forecasting 130-140kts right now.

[Subtrop]

01A TAUKTAE 210515 1800 14.6N 72.9E IO 65 976

[aspen]

2hr old microwave pass: the eyewall is coming along nicely, although the east side is thin, probably due to dry air from India.

[doomhaMwx]

01A TAUKTAE 210516 0000 15.0N 72.9E IO 75 972

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “TAUKTAE” (PRONOUNCED AS TAU’TE) OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 09 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT 2100 UTC OF 15th MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 14.7°N AND LONGITUDE 72.7°E, ABOUT 150 KM SOUTHWEST OF PANJIMGOA, 490 KM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, 730 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 870 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI (41780).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND REACH GUJARAT COAST DURING 1800-2200 UTC OF 17th & CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR (42830) & MAHUVA (BHAVNAGAR DISTRICT; 42838) AROUND 0000 UTC of 18th MAY.

[Subtrop]

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over Eastcentral Arabian
Sea: Cyclone Alert for Gujarat & Diu coasts (Yellow message)
The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over eastcentral Arabian
Sea moved nearly northwards with a speed of about 11 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at
0530 hours IST of today, the 16th May, 2021 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 15.0°N and
longitude 72.7°E, about 130 km west-southwest of Panjim-Goa, 450 km south of Mumbai, 700 km
south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat) and 840 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).
It is very likely to intensify during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-northwestwards
and reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17th & cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar &
Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) around 18th May early morning.

[Homie J]

Very impressive western eyewall. East side a bit weak still

[Subtrop]

01A TAUKTAE 210516 0600 15.9N 72.8E IO 90 962

TPPN10 PGTW 160623

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE)

B. 16/0600Z

C. 15.85N

D. 72.82E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/0201Z 15.25N 72.85E SSMS
16/0203Z 15.15N 72.95E SSMS


RHOADES

[Meow]

It has a well-defined eye.