Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9626
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR April Forecast up / Bastardi graphic up
“ IF “ bastardi is right about this season look out folks.
With all these things in mind, when it’s all said and done, back to back, this may exceed 2004 and 2005 and become the new benchmark for hurricane hits on the U.S.
With all these things in mind, when it’s all said and done, back to back, this may exceed 2004 and 2005 and become the new benchmark for hurricane hits on the U.S.
0 likes
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: University of Arizona is up
The Penn State model based forecast is out. It predicts a "relatively inactive" season with 11.9 named storms with a range of 9-15. This is in spite of a cool neutral ENSO and warmer than normal MDR forecast by the model. The model does not forecast hurricane or major hurricane numbers.
https://twitter.com/PCAanalytics/status/1381898467598073860
The model correctly predicted a hyperactive season in 2020, but only predicted 10 NS in 2019 and 2018 which turned out to be way too low.
https://twitter.com/PCAanalytics/status/1381898467598073860
The model correctly predicted a hyperactive season in 2020, but only predicted 10 NS in 2019 and 2018 which turned out to be way too low.
2 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- johngaltfla
- Category 5
- Posts: 1939
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Sarasota County, FL
- Contact:
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=17/8/4
chris_fit wrote:Wow, those seem like high odds for impacts in FL. Almost a coin flip for a Major getting within 50 miles and 3 outa 4 for a hurricane.
If we're not in the "bullseye" every season, we are not trying.
I'm more fascinated about Penn States's forecast and will be reading it in depth tonight.
1 likes
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: University of Arizona is up
CyclonicFury wrote:The Penn State model based forecast is out. It predicts a "relatively inactive" season with 11.9 named storms with a range of 9-15. This is in spite of a cool neutral ENSO and warmer than normal MDR forecast by the model. The model does not forecast hurricane or major hurricane numbers.
https://twitter.com/PCAanalytics/status/1381898467598073860
The model correctly predicted a hyperactive season in 2020, but only predicted 10 NS in 2019 and 2018 which turned out to be way too low.
The point about it being too low for 2018/19 while correctly forecasting a hyperactive year in 2020 is interesting. Perhaps this means the model is seeing similarities to 2018/19 and 2021 could end up being like those years: active, but not crazy in terms of ACE and either a normal above-average number of storms (2018), or a lot of slop with less strong systems (2019).
Meanwhile, NC State has released their forecast of 15-18 NS, 7-9 hurricanes, and 2-3 majors.
https://news.ncsu.edu/2021/04/2021-hurr ... be-active/
2 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TWC’s April forecast is out, very similar to CSU.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... il-twc-csu
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... il-twc-csu
3 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR April Forecast up / Bastardi graphic up
toad strangler wrote:cycloneye wrote:JB high risk areas.
The entire US East Coast.... and then some
That’s last years impact forecast. The one on top is this years.
0 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR April Forecast up / Bastardi graphic up
Steve wrote:toad strangler wrote:cycloneye wrote:JB high risk areas.
The entire US East Coast.... and then some
That’s last years impact forecast. The one on top is this years.
Yes it is, and the new one is essentially the same IRT the CONUS. He can be a great pattern recognizer but this JB makes me laugh.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
The biggest uncertainty in regard to these forecasts is probably ENSO. Warm vs. cool neutral will make a significant difference in regard to NS, ACE, and steering.
I think the ceiling for this upcoming season is quite high, but the range of outcomes is significant, given the predictability barrier. The PMM will play a role, too.
I think the ceiling for this upcoming season is quite high, but the range of outcomes is significant, given the predictability barrier. The PMM will play a role, too.
1 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR April Forecast up / Bastardi graphic up
toad strangler wrote:Steve wrote:toad strangler wrote:
That’s last years impact forecast. The one on top is this years.
Yes it is, and the new one is essentially the same IRT the CONUS. He can be a great pattern recognizer but this JB makes me laugh.
I agree with the pattern caveat. He put out a longer video today for the saturday video and explained his reasoning. He had an odd idea (science fiction ****?) that what if 2005 storms which hit off their peaks were 2020 "surprise ** style? As much as I'm crying laughing, I have to admit it's scary as hell. Like that's everybody from Brownsville to maybe say Panama City worried about super late storm peaks and Harvey/Michael type systems. Or Katrina flexing at landfall. I swear I'm literally laughing out loud but sketched and trembling inside. haha Let's hope that's not the way this season goes. Pain on the horizon if so.
--------
Some of the scientific points to follow from the video were the evolution of a NE trough in May to high pressure in the NW Atlantic ASO. Also, look for the MJO to still have some influence and signaling and try to repeat the 8-1-2 counter to this past winter's phases even if maybe it's not the dominant controlling feature. Joe is hype, but I always get something out of his seasonal forecasts and appreciate them.
2 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Reminder, this thread is for Expert Forecasts. Everyone is welcome to place their own predictions in the personal forecast thread here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121745
3 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
NOAA will release their outlook on May 20th.
https://twitter.com/NOAAComms/status/1392466055038128130
https://twitter.com/NOAAComms/status/1392466055038128130
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 741
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
- Location: Monterrey, N.L, México
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
CONAGUA from Mexico posted its forecast for the 2021 hurricane season in both ATL and EPAC basins, idk if its based on another international forecast or if its actually an own self study
https://mobile.twitter.com/conagua_mx/status/1392561353123155975
https://mobile.twitter.com/conagua_mx/status/1392561353123155975
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9626
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
19/8/4 numbers increased a bit updated weather channel outlook
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... 21-may-twc
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... 21-may-twc
1 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9626
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
toad strangler wrote:NOAA tomorrow
Yep, should be interesting. My bet is they go with quite a busy season ahead.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9626
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Yeah their forecasts seem rather unrealistic. Very similar every year for some reason
0 likes
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2656
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
SFLcane wrote:
Yeah their forecasts seem rather unrealistic. Very similar every year for some reason
I have it on good authority (at least I think it's good authority) that their forecast for last year was 13/7/3.
0 likes
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9626
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
AnnularCane wrote:SFLcane wrote:
Yeah their forecasts seem rather unrealistic. Very similar every year for some reason
I have it on good authority (at least I think it's good authority) that their forecast for last year was 13/7/3.
We know how that turned out.
3 likes
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4178
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: Expert forecasts for 2021 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA forecast up at 11 AM EDT
Thread title says 11:00 AM but NOAA website says 12:30 ET
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, cheezyWXguy, ElectricStorm, Emmett_Brown, Google Adsense [Bot], LarryWx, ouragans, South Texas Storms, Tireman4, Wampadawg and 106 guests