ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 90, 2021052000, , BEST, 0, 304N, 598W, 30, 1013, LO,

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 90, 2021052000, , BEST, 0, 304N, 598W, 30, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001, SPAWNINVEST, al712021 to al902021,

ABNT20 KNHC 192316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has developed several
hundred miles east of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is
expected to form within this broad cloud system a few hundred miles
northeast of Bermuda by tomorrow and produce gale-force winds. The
low is then forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer
waters on Friday, and will likely become a short-lived subtropical
cyclone late Friday and into the weekend near and to the northeast
of Bermuda. The system is expected to move toward the north and
northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into
Monday. For more information on this developing system, please
see High Seas forecasts issued by the Ocean Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like this has a pretty good chance to get the May streak to 7 years... pretty crazy.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1395110727279681537



 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1395110732228964364



 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1395110735580180483

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Fun fact: if 90L reaches (S)TS status, it would be the third time that the name "Ana" was used on a pre-season system, the other two times being 2003 and 2015.

[Ryxn]

If named, Ana would also be extend the 3-cycle streak to 4 with regards to forming in any months OTHER than June and July

No other A name in the six lists has had this 'experience'.

2021: Ana in May?
2015: Ana in May
2009: Ana in August
2003: Ana in April
1997: Ana in June

[CyclonicFury]

50/80? That escalated quickly...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200540
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system has developed within a broad area
of cloudiness and thunderstorms about 600 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later today
while it moves generally northward. The low is forecast to move
westward and southwestward over warmer waters on Friday, and will
likely become a short-lived subtropical cyclone near and to the
northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move
toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by
late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing
low pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Seems like the NHC is all but saying they're going to need to designate this thing as a subtropical storm in the coming days. That's a pretty impressive jump in percentages, going from 0/20 to 50/80 over the past 24 hours.

With the major models being continuously enthusiastic about 90L's chances for subtropical transition (and even, in some cases, tropical transition), I can see why they're bullish. Hopefully we're not all counting our chickens before they hatch - wouldn't be the first time where a high-percentage area of interest doesn't develop as expected.

[Shell Mound]

Interestingly, the location, pattern, and projected track are similar to those of Arlene (1999). 1999 is somewhat similar to 2021 in terms of SST configuration.

[Nancy Smar]

ABNT20 KNHC 201157
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 800 miles east
of Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later
today while it moves generally northward. The low is then forecast
to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters tonight and
Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical cyclone near and to
the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move
toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by
late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low
pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

[NDG]

When was the last time a subtropical storm formed over SSTs only near 70 deg F?

[NotSparta]

When was the last time a subtropical storm formed over SSTs only near 70 deg F?

I think 2017, with Arlene

[cycloneye]

90L INVEST 210520 1200 32.9N 52.3W ATL 35 1012

[Iceresistance]

INVEST 90L plot is missing . . .

[DestinHurricane]

This will likely be a subtropical storm and won't ever become tropical. I think this won't be the last subtropical storm we see, this year's setup looks particularly favorable to these types of storms. Reminds me of 2019 in a lot of ways, this storm being similar to Andrea.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kazmit]

I think this will be the first of many storms in the subtropics this year. I'll have to watch out here in Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 650 miles east-
northeast of Bermuda is now moving northward, and recent satellite
wind data indicate that the system has gale-force winds. The low
is expected to turn westward and west-southwestward over warmer
waters tonight and Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical
cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. After that
time, the system is expected to move toward the north and northeast
into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more
information on this developing low pressure area, please see High
Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and
forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

90L INVEST 210520 1800 34.4N 53.7W ATL 40 1011

[MGC]

Might be a brief STS....kinda a waste of a name.....MGC