Interesting Pattern indeed

[azsnowman]

Well, could this be the pattern for the rest of autumn into winter?? Let's HOPE so and let's bring on the SNOW

AFDFLG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 PM MST WED NOV 05 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SHOWERS...AND BREEZY WINDS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. CLOUDS THICKEN ON
THURSDAY AS MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...EXPECTING MAINLY VIRGA FROM THIS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE 10 % CHCS OF PRECIP NORTHERN
ZONES. ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT VIRGA AND MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN. BECOMING WINDY ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW COMING ON SHORE AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA. MAY BE LOOKING AT WIND ADVISORY WINDS EAST OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN DYNAMIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE STATE ALONG WITH A MODERATE COLD FRONT. OROGRAPHICS
WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE INTERESTING FOR THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS
IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. WITH CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS...THE LOWER VALLEY AREAS MAY NOT MIX OUT AND STAY
RELATIVELY COOL.

FOR SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S STORM
SYSTEM...WITH A LOT OF MID-LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AROUND THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THE 12Z GFS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE ECMWF FROM A
DAY AGO WITH ANOTHER CLOSE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA. LAST NIGHTS GFS-00Z HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH ARIZONA ON MONDAY. WE WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD...THINKING THAT A PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WE WILL USE CHCS POPS TO COVER THIS...AS
DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS-00Z FROM LAST
NIGHT.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&

$$
TC


Dennis

[JCT777]

I hope you get plenty of snow, Dennis!

[Josephine96]

I would never think anybody in a warm state like Arizona would actually want snow. lol I complain once the afternoon highs drop below 70 lol

[LMolineux]

Well Josephine. AZ gets snow and some good snows at that. And yes there are snow lovers in all areas and some dont ever get to see real snow but still there are snow lovers in all parts fo the world so what makes AZ any different for people?

[Stephanie]

TWC extended forcast looks very promising for you Dennis. If not snow, then rain and nice cool temps.

[ColdFront77]

I would never think anybody in a warm state like Arizona would actually want snow. lol I complain once the afternoon highs drop below 70 lol

There are plenty of places in Arizona that see snow each year. Some of the Arizona mountains are quite high.

Humphreys Peak is the highest point in Arizona, at 12,633 feet high (about 2.4 miles high). It is approximately 10 miles north of Flagstaff.

[azsnowman]

I would never think anybody in a warm state like Arizona would actually want snow. lol I complain once the afternoon highs drop below 70 lol

That's one thing about Arizona, it's the most diverse state in the lower 48......I can drive 30 miles south in the winter, have temps in the 60's-70's. I can drive to my east and hit 240+" of snow in Feb.

It's funny, when I was stationed on the east coast back in the late 70's, I'd tell people that I was from Arizona and how much snow I get! ALSO use to crack me up when I told them I was raised on the Fort Apache Indian Reservation.....they'd *gasp* "With REAL INDIANS?" "Do they still live in tee pees ?" "ROFLMAO!"

My average snowfall here in town (elevation 7,200 feet) for the year....132", up the road a piece, 15 miles to my east (elevation 10,000) the yearly average snowfall, a WHOPPING 240+" BTW.....have you seen my autumn pictures Joshephine??? You'll be AMAZED!

Dennis

[Stephanie]

I know I've said this to you before Dennis but I had the same illusion that Arizona was just desert and would've never imagined that there would've been snow. The pictures that you've provided us shows a totally different perspective of the state.

[ColdFront77]

I've heard on The Weather Channel over the years that parts of Arizona (the higher elevations) see snow every winter, at least generally speaking.

[tropicana]

Interesting stuff about Arizona... thanks for posting all that useful stuff.

Another interesting thing about Arizona that I have learnt recently..and didn't know before.... even though that state is out west... it doesn't use Pacific Standard Time (PST) .... Arizona is on Mountain Standard Time (MST) and doesnt not observe Daylight Saving Time once Spring arrives.

So the time in Arizona is actually just 2 hours behind Eastern Time zone.
Just thought I'd post that.

[ColdFront77]

Actually... "15 counties in the northwest, southwest and southeast corners of Arizona change their clocks."

Also, those in central Indiana counties, do not change their clock in early April and late October.

[azsnowman]

Hmmm? Tom.....I've lived in Az practicly all my life and to my knowledge, no one within the state changes time!

Dennis

[ColdFront77]

Okay, Dennis. I heard on a "Spanish Elementary Program" on The Learning Channel back in the 1990's [happened to be flipping through the channels] and the host mentioned that some parts of Arizona, "will change their clocks this weekend; I think he mentioned Indiana as well.

I did a search and found the above information after all these years of knowing that three areas of the United States do not observe Daylight Saving Time.

[azsnowman]

Well Tom......I can't say I'm 110% sure BUT, I'm 100% sure that no one in Az changes to daylight savings time!

NOW...to the matter at hand, I'm getting conflicting reports here, some say snow levels at 7000' by Weds while others are saying 7500', who knows? Just have to wait and see I guess!

AFDFLG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN NOV 09 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY.
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW OFF N CA COAST PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTH. LOW BOTTOMS OUT OFF S CA COAST ON TUE. CWA TO
REMAIN UNDER MOIST...MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVELS...BUT STABLE FLOW
MONDAY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS OR CLOUD COVER FOR TOMORROW.
JET WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE ON TUE.
MODELS SHOW GRADUAL MOISTENING THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY INTO WED.
DYNAMIC LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE ON TUE AS THE LOW CENTER STARTS TO
MOVE EAST. LOW NOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WED AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THUR. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT
OCCURS ON WED. EXPECT TO SEE CHANCES OF PRECIP INCREASE ON TUE WITH
HIGHEST POPS NOW SEEN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. WARM SW FLOW WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS HIGH (>8500 FT) ON MON. CAA BEGINS TUE WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT CROSSING THE STATE ON WED. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 7500
FT WED OVER THE RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAU AND 8500 FT IN THE WHITES.

EXTENDED...UPPER LOW LIFTS NE OUT OF THE STATE ON THUR. HOWEVER WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE TO KEEP THREAT OF SHOWERS THUR ALONG THE UT AND N.M.
BORDERS. BEYOND THUR EXPECTING FAIR WX WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REBOUNDING
AS HGTS/THICKNESSES INCREASE. DF



Dennis

[StormCrazyIowan]

Well, hope for the best!! And if ya get some, send it my way!

BTW, I like the motto!

[azsnowman]

Well, here we go......the snow level starts out HIGH, then drops back down by Weds, "BRING IT ON!" I've got my snowblower out, fueled up, greased and READY for a snowy winter!

A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFF BAJA
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WRAP NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. DIVERGENCE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE LOW
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF
(INCREASING CURVATURE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT). AS A RESULT...THE
COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...LIFT AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP. AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 7000 TO 9000 FEET TODAY AND INCREASE BY 500 FEET ON
TUESDAY AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS ARRIVES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO COME BACK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA BY THURSDAY WITH
DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
TC
$$


Dennis

[ColdFront77]

Well Tom......I can't say I'm 110% sure BUT, I'm 100% sure that no one in Az changes to daylight savings time!

No problem, Dennis. Maybe they changed it in the last several years?

Sorry for straying off-topic. Thanks.

[azsnowman]

No problem Tom for straying off topic!

NOW.....the snow level drops to 6,000 feet Weds "WAAAAHOOOO!" with *several* inches above 6500 feet, "That's ME!" I'm at 7200 feet here at the house!

Dennis