In what month will the strongest storm of the Atlantic season form?

[Ryxn]

Last year, it happened in bloody November and was a 30th named storm and former-Category 5 at that...will this year be an oddball as well. I am referring to strongest as in highest wind speed. The average (mean) date for a major hurricane to exist last year (trust me I did the math) is October 12 at 11:15PM UTC while the median date is October 22 (the mid-point of Epsilon's major hurricane status). So obviously a very back-loaded season.

I count forming as being designated a tropical or subtropical CYCLONE and UTC time will be used.

I would like this to be a poll as well.

Options:
-August
-September
-October
-I am with crazy (July or November)


Months that the strongest Altantic storms formed in during the past 32 years


2020: November
2019: August
2018: October
2017: August
2016: September
2015: September
2014: October
2013: September
2012: October
2011: September
2010: September
2009: August
2008: August
2007: August
2006: September
2005: October
2004: September
2003: September
2002: September
2001: October
2000: September
1999: September
1998: October
1997: September
1996: August
1995: September
1994: November
1993: August
1992: August
1991: September
1990: August
1989: September

Let's discuss!

[cycloneye]

Made a poll that closes on May 31 at 2:43 PM EDT.

[kevin]

October was the month that 2020 really became unforgettable imo and I have a, completely intuitive and not based on forecasts, feeling that this year will follow a similar pattern with this year's big one somewhere early in October.

[DestinHurricane]

September, you would typically want a La Nina and active Western Caribbean to increase the chance of it happening in October. The indicators this year point to Neutral ENSO and not necessarily an active W Carib so I think it'll be a storm originating from the MDR in September.

[AnnularCane]

Going with October. Just a hunch.

[Shell Mound]

August (September and October will be relatively “dead”)

[DestinHurricane]

August (September and October will be relatively “dead”)

What makes you think September will be dead?

[aspen]

August (September and October will be relatively “dead”)

What makes you think September will be dead?

I’m gonna guess two things:

1.) the possibility of a weaker MDR season due to the below-average SSTs eventually causing increased atmospheric stability in the region

2.) how last September didn’t turn out to be the MDR juggernaut we initially anticipated, with the last third of the month having no new TC formations.

[toad strangler]

August (September and October will be relatively “dead”)

What makes you think September will be dead?

I’m gonna guess two things:

1.) the possibility of a weaker MDR season due to the below-average SSTs eventually causing increased atmospheric stability in the region

2.) how last September didn’t turn out to be the MDR juggernaut we initially anticipated, with the last third of the month having no new TC formations.

Definitely thinking September. CSU and NOAA in the same boat. Buckle Up.

[CrazyC83]

September, you would typically want a La Nina and active Western Caribbean to increase the chance of it happening in October. The indicators this year point to Neutral ENSO and not necessarily an active W Carib so I think it'll be a storm originating from the MDR in September.

That wasn't the case in 2012, 2014, 2015 or 2018...all of which had their strongest storms reach peak intensity in October and none of which were La Nina.

Not since 2009 has the peak intensity of the strongest storm been in August.

[AtlanticWind]

Going with September, I am thinking the 2nd week of the month.

[Ryxn]

So...I have done A LOT of math and calculations recently...

2020: November
2019: August
2018: October
2017: August     
2016: September
2015: September
2014: October
2013: September
2012: October
2011: September
2010: September
2009: August
2008: August
2007: August
2006: September
2005: October
2004: September
2003: September
2002: September
2001: October
2000: September
1999: September
1998: October
1997: September
1996: August
1995: September
1994: November
1993: August
1992: August
1991: September

In the last 30 years, Septembers unsurprisingly came in first at 47% featuring the formation of the strongest storm. Augusts came in 2nd with 27% (with most of them forming in late-August ahead of the climatological peak), Octobers in 3rd with 20% and Novembers in last with only 7% in the past 30 years. However during the past 10 years, having the strongest storm form in October was a more common occurrence than having it in August as you will find out below

Below is a chart of....
Percentage of Years a Designated Month Saw the Formation of its Strongest Storm

Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |Year range
0% | 20% | 40%| 30%| 10% (2011-'20)
0% | 25% | 45%| 25%| 5%   (2001-'20)
0% | 27% | 47%| 20%| 7% (1991-2020)
0% | 25% | 55%| 15%| 5% (1981-2020)
0% | 34% | 50%| 12%| 4% (1971-2020)
2% | 33% | 47%| 15%| 3% (1961-2020)
1% | 33% | 47%| 16%| 3% (1951-2020)
1% | 34% | 49%| 14%| 3% (1941-2020)
1% | 32% | 49%| 14%| 3% (1931-2020)
1% | 32% | 49%| 15%| 3% (1921-2020)

From top to bottom, the chart starts as a 10-year range and ends at a 100-year range. It is interesting to note that over the past 20 year, late-season strongest storms are becoming increasingly more common. On the flip side, early-season strongest storms are becoming less common. Any theories as to why this is occurring? Is it simply coincidence?

[Fancy1001]

I think it will form in late August, but hit its peak strength in early September.

[JetFuel_SE]

Gonna have to go with October.
Storm forms from a CAG, becomes a C5 after exploding over the loop current, then weakens due to an EWRC before making landfall near Pensacola as a mid-range C4.