2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Major hurricane in late May?

https://i.imgur.com/bm82wWB.png

Wasn't Amanda from 2014 a major hurricane in May? although that was an el Niño year, so it's kind strange for this type of year if something like that develops

Yes it was though May major hurricanes have occurred outside El Niños (see 2001 and 2012). With that said, GFS has been too aggressive intensity wise so far this year globally even if it’s done better than the ECMWF with genesis so I’m not counting on a robust hurricane to form.

How about some of the model runs showing TCG near 110W-120W. Is it normal for May?

[Yellow Evan]

Wasn't Amanda from 2014 a major hurricane in May? although that was an el Niño year, so it's kind strange for this type of year if something like that develops

Yes it was though May major hurricanes have occurred outside El Niños (see 2001 and 2012). With that said, GFS has been too aggressive intensity wise so far this year globally even if it’s done better than the ECMWF with genesis so I’m not counting on a robust hurricane to form.

How about some of the model runs showing TCG near 110W-120W. Is it normal for May?

Normal enough though most runs seem to show genesis a little further east than that.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS back to 2 systems but makes the main one weaker.

[JW-_-]

ens thinking we will be tracking something.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

MJO will be entering phase 8 to kick off June so it make sense as to why models are picking up on activity.

[Yellow Evan]

ICON consistently on board, with development starting around day 5.

Strong hints in the EPS spread as well.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS comes in stronger again but more north and moves it quicker.

[Kingarabian]

MJO will be entering phase 8 to kick off June so it make sense as to why models are picking up on activity.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/N9C8hqQ/eps-chi200-anomaly-hov-equatorial-2021052312-MEAN.png[url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/pnb480B/twc-globe-mjo-vp200.png[url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/CQN1w4R/ewp-2.gif[url]

It's all under the same spectrum but i think this spell of activity has more to do with CCKW. The MJO will likely be in phase 8 around June 5-7ish. Will be interesting to see how long this spell of activity lasts if this is the case.

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC:

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro:

[JW-_-]

ec thinking the seed may be there by the end of the week.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS lol:

[JW-_-]

icon 00z run.

06 GFS looks much the same with intensity on the timestamp.



Will be good uppers with low if any shear thinks the model.




Could be sniffing a howler

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS running through day 6.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS cont.

Eventually brings 2 weakening systems into BCS and Jalisco respectively.

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon May 24 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico later this week. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system thereafter
as it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[aspen]

12z CMC develops this system even earlier than the GFS, with a TC around Day 4.

12z ICON barely even has a closed low throughout the whole 180 hr run.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro is on board on day 5 with the 0/20.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF seems to develop this more slowly and doesn't move this as fast.

Edit: Actually this is the second system that the GFS develops.

[Kingarabian]

Good ACE maker if the 18z GFS pans out. 18z GFS develops the first system within 4-5 days, keeps it a major hurricane for another 5 days and then finally weakens it by day 12.