2021 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon May 24 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some gradual development of this
system thereafter as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS through 90 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Through day 5. Probably time to tag the right system.

[Kingarabian]

For the EPAC, CCKW's or something of the sort are playing a big role in the intra seasonal variability so far. Love watching the convection in real time quickly moving east from the CPAC:

[Yellow Evan]

Through day 5.5. This run seems more favorable to the right system now but nevertheless has 2 systems of solid intensity by the end of the month, although I'm a little skeptical we'll see a hurricane at 9-10N 95-97W to say the least given one has never traversed that area outside of a super El Nino year.

[Yellow Evan]

This is what we’re currently dealing with I believe at least for the left system.



Since these seems to be getting a bit better thought it was worth posting.



MJO/CCKW looks favorable through mid-June then I suspect we’ll have the first lull of the season.

[Yellow Evan]

Back to the 0z GFS run, by day 8-12, it calls for the right system to maintain as a low-end hurricane for a while and then approach Guerrero.

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://i.imgur.com/Wd95qYJ.png[url]

Through day 5.5. This run seems more favorable to the right system now but nevertheless has 2 systems of solid intensity by the end of the month, although I'm a little skeptical we'll see a hurricane at 9-10N 95-97W to say the least given one has never traversed that area outside of a super El Nino year.

00z CMC has the first system becoming a hurricane and maintaining itself at 14N-110W. Looks like it drops the second system.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some gradual development of this
system thereafter as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly ECMWF and GFS will probably slowly trend to favoring the right system if past is any indication. But I’m also skeptical of the 0z GFS solution for the right/second system given how unprecedented that would be (though a few EPS members have a similar outcome).

[JW-_-]

12z ens were thinking at least one of them has a good chance @ reaching cane status in its life

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro back to showing no development but the disturbances are robust and still present.

[JW-_-]

Models are all over the place atm. But I'm keeping the faith

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue May 25 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of the coast of Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some gradual development of this
system thereafter as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico by this
weekend. Gradual development of this system will also be possible
early next week as it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS is all in on the 2nd system.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS same as 06z but weaker second system and kills it in the deep tropics. Honestly that’s quite realistic.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 25 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of the coast of Mexico later this week. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some gradual development of this
system thereafter as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south of the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico
by this weekend. Gradual development of this system will also be
possible early next week as it moves generally westward at 5 to 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

Last two EPS runs much less enthusiastic than yesterday on both systems. Overall, this is a familiar feeling from last year in which global models would back off development once it appears imminent 3-5 days out.

[Yellow Evan]

12z CMC shows nothing in the next 10 days.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro tries but no development.